College Football Week 5 Odds & Picks for Oklahoma vs. Kansas State: Oklahoma to Finally Get Going?

College Football Week 5 Odds & Picks for Oklahoma vs. Kansas State: Oklahoma to Finally Get Going? article feature image
Credit:

Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Rattler.

Oklahoma vs. Kansas State Odds

Oklahoma Odds -12.5 (-110)
Kansas State Odds +12.5 (-110)
Moneyline -475 / +350
Over/Under 53 (-115 / -105)
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Oklahoma Sooners travel to Manhattan — Kansas, not New York — to avenge their loss to the Kansas State Wildcats last season.

The Sooners are still undefeated but have not impressed in the fashion many thought they would. Now, they are going on the road for the first time this season with the Red River Rivalry next week.

Kansas State had its share of struggles last week as it suffered its first loss to Oklahoma State. Coach Chis Klieman has been great at getting his team to respond after a loss. The Wildcats are 3-1 against the spread after losing.

Now, which Big 12 squad will get right?


Oklahoma vs. Kansas State Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 2
3:30 p.m. ET
FOX

Oklahoma Sooners

Sooners Offense

Will this be the game where we see the Sooners offense get right?

Many, including myself, thought it would be last week at home against West Virginia. But they mustered only 16 points and had the game come down to a field goal after entering as 17.5-point favorites.

The Oklahoma faithful began to point the finger at preseason Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler, as he was showered with boos and chants for the backup quarterback multiple times during the game.

While Rattler may receive the blame, he has not been terrible; he just isn’t playing up to expectations right now.

Through all the adversity of last week’s game, he stepped up when needed. He went 6-for-6 on the last drive of the game to secure field position for the game-winning field goal.

The glaring issue for Oklahoma in its game against West Virginia was the inability to run the ball. Neither Eric Gray nor Kennedy Brooks could get anything going, as the team totaled only 57 yards on the ground.

This offense is dependent on the play of Rattler, and if the final drive of last week’s game is telling, he may have finally turned a corner.


Sooners Defense

This defense is what has kept the Sooners afloat this season. They held an explosive West Virginia offense to just 247 total yards.

It all starts up front for Oklahoma, as it ranks ninth nationally in Defensive Line Yards and second in pass rush. That unit now finds itself in a position to feast on this Kansas State front, as the Wildcats’ offensive line ranks 91st in pass blocking.

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Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State Offense

The Wildcats have some significant injuries heading into this one.

Sixth-year quarterback Skylar Thompson is still on the mend and is doubtful for this game against Oklahoma. That leaves backup Will Howard, who was injured in last week’s game against Oklahoma State, and third-string Jaren Lewis to fill in under center.

Howard is expected to be ready for Saturday despite the injury, but the issue is that he’s has been inefficient filling in for Thompson. He does bring another rushing element to this offense, as he led the team in rushing last week despite getting hurt.

K-State will also be without starting tight end Daniel Imatorbhebhe, who has one of the Wildcats’ two receiving touchdowns this season.

Kansas State rushes at almost a 66% rate, and a large majority of the work goes to sophomore Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn has had a solid season, rushing for 393 yards at 5.2 yards per carry.

His success, along with help from Thompson and Howard, has put the Wildcats 11th in Rushing Success this season.

Wildcats Defense

Under Bill Snyder, defense was the hallmark of Kansas State football. Under Klieman, the defense has returned to form this season.

The unit has been great against the run, holding opponents to just 2.4 yards per attempt. However, it had a forgettable day against Oklahoma State as it allowed 123 yards on the ground.

The defense was also burned even more in another area.

The Wildcats defense allowed 344 yards through the air at over 10 yards per attempt. This unit has proven to be vulnerable against the pass, as it now ranks 89th in Passing Success Allowed.


Oklahoma vs. Kansas State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Kansas State match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. Kansas State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 34 37
Line Yards 83 42
Pass Success 30 89
Pass Blocking** 4 12
Big Play 89 57
Havoc 27 70
Finishing Drives 19 24
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Kansas State Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 11 10
Line Yards 19 9
Pass Success 68 43
Pass Blocking** 91 2
Big Play 59 9
Havoc 94 51
Finishing Drives 67 70
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 20 119
PFF Coverage 40 64
Middle 8 13 86
SP+ Special Teams 4 55
Plays per Minute 68 126
Rush Rate 47.9% (105) 65.9% (11)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Even though the Sooners have been shaky performance-wise, they’re elite in a few advanced metrics. They hold significant advantages in the trenches, where games can be won and lost.

The Wildcats’ injuries make them even more run-heavy and they could have a lot of trouble against the Oklahoma front.

This could be the game we finally see the Sooners look like the team we all thought they could be.


Oklahoma vs. Kansas State Betting Pick

The public is all over the Wildcats as two-score home dogs, and they have every right to be. The Sooners have not exactly instilled confidence in any bettor.

But the Sooners defense will be dominant in this one against a diminished Wildcat offense. As long as Rattler remains efficient, they should pull away in this one.

Pick: Oklahoma -10.5

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