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Cincinnati vs. Miami Ohio Odds, Picks and Predictions: Week 3 NCAA Football Betting Preview (Saturday, Sept. 17)

Cincinnati vs. Miami Ohio Odds, Picks and Predictions: Week 3 NCAA Football Betting Preview (Saturday, Sept. 17) article feature image
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Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Cincinnati’s Charles McClelland (center) celebrates with teammates.

  • The Cincinnati Bearcats and Miami (OH) RedHawks duel at Paul Brown Stadium as part of college football's Week 3 Saturday.
  • Cincinnati will look to use its pace of play and stout front seven to stretch its streak of victories by three or more scores to 17.
  • Cooper Van Tatenhove breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.

Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH) Odds

Saturday, Sept. 17
12 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Cincinnati Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-23.5
-120
50.5
-112o / -108u
-3000
Miami (OH) Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+23.5
-102
50.5
-112o / -108u
+1200
Updated odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

We have yet to lose a write-up bet this year, and Week 3 is no place to start.

Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati will be the site of an in-state battle between Miami (OH) and Cincinnati, who both coming off their first wins of the season.

The battle for the Victory Bell has been played every year since 1888, making this the oldest non-conference rivalry in FBS.

Cincinnati has won 16 straight meetings by an average of 21 points per game, a trend that Miami (OH) will hope to change.


Cincinnati Bearcats

After a historic 13-1 season and CFB Playoff berth, sixth-year Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell must help Cincinnati find a new identify after a record nine Bearcats were drafted by NFL teams.

The Bearcats opened their season with a 31-24 defeat on the road against Arkansas. Arkansas had a post-game win expectancy of 83%, resulting in a lot of positive metrics for Cincinnati to build upon.

Two of these metrics were Explosiveness and overall Success Rate. Cincinnati outpaced Arkansas in both categories.

The Bearcats posted an overall Explosiveness of 1.53 in comparison to the Razorbacks’ 1.4. In addition, Cincinnati was able to have a Success Rate of 41% in relation to Arkansas’ 39%.

Cincinnati’s loss to the Razorbacks came because of Finishing Drives, which it ranks 112th nationally in. Cincinnati had three more scoring opportunities than Arkansas, but was only able to turn that into 2.67 points per opportunity. Meanwhile, Arkansas converted 5.17 points per opportunity.

This failure to convert opportunities into points was catalyzed by an interception in Arkansas’ territory and a fumble that was lost at midfield.

In Week 2, Cincinnati was given an opportunity to improve on these Week 1 mistakes in its matchup with FCS Kennesaw State. Only one turnover on 525 total yards and 65 total points gives bettors a lot to like about where this Cincinnati team is heading going into the battle for the Victory Bell.

Had Cincinnati been able to clean up its mistakes and convert enough opportunities to come out victorious against the Razorbacks, this spread would be much greater than where it currently sits at -22.

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Miami RedHawks

The story for ninth-year head coach Chuck Martin has been the stout defensive play of the RedHawks.

In Week 2, Miami was able to hold Robert Morris to just 219 total yards of offense.

This defensive play has been especially crucial after Miami lost quarterback Brett Gabbert late in a Week 1 loss to Kentucky. This loss has forced the RedHawks into a run-heavy offensive scheme.

In its Week 2 win, Miami boasted 42 rushing attempts to just 27 total passing attempts by backup QB Aveon Smith. The freshman QB from Lexington, S.C., was only able to muster 155 total yards through the air.

This heavy dependence on the ground game could prove problematic for Miami against a Bearcats front seven that was able to post .171 Havoc points against Arkansas and .214 against a lowly Kennesaw State team.

Although Miami has the advantage in some key statistics, Cincinnati has the advantage in this matchup where it truly counts: rush success and Line Yards. This advantage defensively for Cincinnati will force Miami into more passing down situations, where it’s far less comfortable.


Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH) Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cincinnati and Miami (OH) match up statistically:

Cincinnati Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 91 90
Line Yards 48 10
Pass Success 85 84
Pass Blocking** 112 72
Havoc 98 62
Finishing Drives 112 85
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Miami (OH) Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 104 72
Line Yards 84 71
Pass Success 70 84
Pass Blocking** 45 30
Havoc 28 76
Finishing Drives 107 119
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 68 65
PFF Coverage 92 127
SP+ Special Teams 76 77
Seconds per Play 24.8 (37) 29.1 (111)
Rush Rate 47.3% (90)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH) Betting Pick

Cincinnati opened as 20.5-point favorite, which was quickly steamed up past the key number of 21. That close Week 1 loss to a quality opponent in Arkansas — along with some offensive mistakes — has the market undervaluing this Cincinnati team on both sides of the ball.

Look for Cincinnati to show a much more polished and improved version of itself on offense, while being able to expose Miami’s QB issues by hindering its Rushing Success Rate.

Miami’s pace of play will be enough to keep it within the number for some of this game, but Cincinnati’s pace of play and stout front seven will be enough to stretch its streak of victories by three or more scores to 17.

Pick: Cincinnati -22 (Play to -23.5)

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