Tulsa vs. Navy Odds, Picks: Count on Davis Brin to Shred Midshipmen
James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tulsa quarterback Davis Brin.
- Tulsa will take on Navy as part of college football's Week 6 afternoon slate.
- Davis Brin will hold a big advantage against the Midshipmen's secondary.
- Doug Ziefel explains why and offers up his best bet.
Tulsa vs. Navy Odds
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -114 | 46.5 -118o / -104u | -250 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -106 | 46.5 -118o / -104u | +202 |
Navy plays host in this matchup after losing the first of its battles to a fellow service academy last week. More importantly, though, it managed to cover the spread.
It remains to be seen whether or not the Midshipmen can repeat that performance against a team that deploys a stark contrast in offensive approach.
That team would be the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
Tulsa has had a rough last two weeks, as it's suffered back-to-back losses at the hands of Cincinnati and Ole Miss. Although, it was competitive with each club, so it should find a way to carry its success over to this matchup.
Preparing for a triple-option offense like Navy is always a unique challenge, and that has proven true over the last five years. The Midshipmen have won four of those last five meetings.
However, oddsmakers have this year's matchup going differently. So, what side should you bet? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
If there's one way to describe Tulsa's offense, it would be explosive.
Quarterback Davis Brin has been slinging the ball all around the yard this season. He comes into this matchup with the ninth-highest passing yards total in the nation. However, he's completed only 50% of his passes this year, so it really is an all-or-nothing approach with this passing attack.
Brin also has an ankle injury and is listed as questionable against Navy, but considering he finished last week's game, I expect him to play in this matchup.
Brin and his receiving corps should have loads of success against this Navy defense, as the Midshipmen have been torched through the air thus far. They rank 119th in opponent completion percentage, 130th in opponent yards per pass allowed and 118th in coverage rating, per PFF.
While the Golden Hurricane do mix in the run quite often, they haven't been very successful on the ground and will likely throw more given the weak secondary they'll be facing.
However, if they do run, they won't have much success. The Midshipmen rank 21st in Rushing Success Rate and 10th in Defensive Line Yards.
Navy Midshipmen
When it comes to Navy, we know exactly what's coming, and so will Tulsa's defense. The only question is, can it stop this unique offense?
Navy goes full triple option, with over 80% of its plays staying on the ground.
However, what makes it tricky is that defenses don't know who's getting the ball. It could be quarterback Tai Lavatai, who leads the team in carries, or wide receiver Maquel Haywood, who leads the team in rushing yards. Even more, it could be one of the three fullbacks on the roster.
The offense doesn't end there, though, as Lavatai has success throwing the football. The constant rushing has opened up some big holes for play-action pass opportunities, and he's averaging over 10 yards per completion.
Getting back to the option, Tulsa doesn't appear to be in a great spot. It ranks 108th in opponent yards per rush and 93rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
However, these two teams have seen each other often over the last few years, so the Tulsa coaching staff knows how to prepare for this option. While the Golden Hurricane may not have a solid rush defense, this attack is unique, and they should be well prepared.
Tulsa vs. Navy Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and Navy match up statistically:
Tulsa Offense vs. Navy Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 98 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 120 | 35 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 2 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Navy Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 124 | 102 | |
| Pass Success | 124 | 66 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 124 | 89 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 114 | |
| Finishing Drives | 129 | 120 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 20 | 112 |
| PFF Coverage | 37 | 118 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 77 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.2 (33) | 27.9 (96) |
| Rush Rate | 49.5% (89) | 80.2% (3) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.
Tulsa vs. Navy Betting Pick
The Golden Hurricane are in a very interesting spot in this matchup, as they go from elite competition to a unique opponent.
However, they should be able to slow down the Midshipmen as they have time to prepare. Plus, Navy may rush constantly, but it's far from reaching consistent success.
On the other side, Brin should shred the Midshipmen's secondary and find plenty of success with the vertical passing game. That said, I'm backing Tulsa to get back in the win column in a big way.
Pick: Tulsa -6 (Play to -6.5)
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