College Football Odds & Picks for UL-Monroe vs. LSU: Is the Total Too High in Louisiana Matchup?

College Football Odds & Picks for UL-Monroe vs. LSU: Is the Total Too High in Louisiana Matchup? article feature image

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  • UL-Monroe makes the intra-state trip to play LSU on Saturday night.
  • Both the Tigers and Warhawks are 4-6 but capable of scoring points in bunches.
  • Alex Kolodziej breaks down the betting action in the matchup below.

UL-Monroe vs. LSU Odds

Saturday, Nov. 20
9 p.m. ET
UL-Monroe Odds
-110o / -110u
LSU Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

UL Monroe has already pulled off multiple, big-time upsets in 2021.

A hypothetical stunner on Saturday may force the NCAA to relegate the LSU Tigers to the NAIA.

Saturday's Week 12 non-con clash pits a pair of 4-6 teams, though the road side is much happier about the result.

The Warhawks didn't win a game in 2020, but have compensated with flying colors this fall.

Three of their four wins have come as underdogs of 13.5 or more, including a double-digit thumping of Troy (+23.5) and a shocker over Liberty (+32.5).

Keep it within range, you say? No, no. The Warhawks are looking for an outright victory Saturday against a hobbled shell of the 2019 LSU title team.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

UL Monroe saw one of the worst dips in scoring from 2019 to 2020, dropping from 31.6 points per game to just 16.3 across the zero-win campaign.

The Warhawks have averaged a touchdown more this fall (23.2) behind offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez.

They're posting just 4.6 yards per play while primarily struggling on first downs. UL Monroe is 90th in Early Downs EPA.

Freshman quarterback Chandler Rogers has piloted the offense for the majority of the year. He ranks 106th in the country in QBR.

Rodriguez' son, Rhett, opened the year under center, but recently sustained a lung injury. He was back in action in Week 11, going 12-of-29 for 160 yards, one touchdown and two picks in a narrow loss to Arkansas State.

Getting 29 points, much less to an SEC team on the road, requires matching pace on the scoreboard.

UL Monroe might need to dig deep in its bag of tricks to hit pay dirt.

The offense could potentially be without wide receiver Jared Sparks and running back Andrew Henry, who are both questionable.

Sparks is second on the team in catches (25), while the two have combined for north of 850 scrimmage yards this season.

LSU Tigers

Two years removed from employing one of the scariest college football rosters, LSU is limping to the finish line.

The Tigers have dropped five of their last six, have been out-gained in six of the last seven and don't have any semblance of who will be coaching after the bowl game, if there even is one.

The offense has slowly deteriorated after a hot start with injuries, opt-outs and inactives piling up.

Star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte was lost for the year in early October, and LSU was never really able to regain form without him.

The Tigers have failed to score more than 21 points in five of the last six. They boast zero threat on the ground, ranking 100th in Line Yards and 111th in Rush Success.

The program regularly fields star-studded defenses. The current unit, however, has been middle of the pack across the board.

Although they've allowed 1.3 yards fewer per play this season as opposed to last, LSU's just 77th nationally in that department (5.7) entering Week 12.

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UL-Monroe vs. LSU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UL-Monroe and LSU match up statistically:

UL-Monroe Offense vs. LSU Defense
Rush Success64
Line Yards50
Pass Success72
Pass Blocking**12529
Big Play9584
Finishing Drives76
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

LSU Offense vs. UL-Monroe Defense
Rush Success111
Line Yards100
Pass Success55
Pass Blocking**1779
Big Play88
Finishing Drives34
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling11125
Middle 8100105
SP+ Special Teams9321
Plays per Minute2249
Rush Rate59.2% (34)48.1% (108)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.

UL-Monroe vs. LSU Betting Pick

The under is the best play in this matchup.

UL Monroe's had a flair for the dramatics in 2021, but the program's been far more comfortable in front of its fans.

The Warhawks average 29.2 points per game at home this season, compared to just 15.2 on the road. They own a -2.2 average scoring margin at Malone Stadium, but a dreadful -31.8 clip as visitors.

LSU doesn't have the firepower like it did in years past to blow past this number all by itself, and the way the injury report is shaking up for the Warhawks, they might not have any firepower at all.

Pick: Under 57.5

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