College Football Pick: How Sharps Are Betting Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State on Thursday

College Football Pick: How Sharps Are Betting Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State on Thursday article feature image
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Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State Odds

Arkansas State Odds +13.5
Appalachian State Odds -13.5
Over/Under 68
PRO Projection APP -8.8 | 65.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

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Thursday night’s Sun Belt Conference Week 8 kickoff has been no stranger to professional bettors. The sharps came out to play early this week, and have been riding the same train right up to game-day morning.

If you’ve happened to compare the opening line to its current listing, you could probably guess which side the pros are taking. But our new PRO Report feature makes it clear, so let’s take a look.


Data as of 10 a.m. ET. For immediate access to our College Football PRO Report, start a Free Trial today! You’ll also get:

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Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State PRO Report

Sharps and big bettors — often one and the same — have had their way with this spread, backing App State and convincing oddsmakers to shift by more than a field goal in response.

Sharp Action

Bettors are split right down the middle on this spread (App State holds a 51% to 49% edge as of writing), so in theory, oddsmakers have done their job. There’s no reason to move a number drawing an even backing of both sides … unless of course, one of those sides is made up of better bettors.

That certainly looks to be the case here based on how oddsmakers have reacted. Sports Insights Bet Signals have triggered four steam moves on Appalachian State since opening.

Steam refers to a sudden, market-wide line move that comes as a result of heavy money hitting one side of a bet all at once, and it’s a dead giveaway of sharp action.

Sharp Action edge: Appalachian State

Big Money

Speaking of heavy money, it’s also worth noting that while bettors are split on this spread, the distribution of money is not.

App State’s 51% backing is generating 71% of the loot hitting this spread, meaning the Mountaineers are drawing much bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.

Big Money edge: Appalachian State

Model Projections

There is, of course, a right price for any team. And in this case, our projections suggest that Arkansas State’s time is coming. Given our projected margin of nine points, don’t be surprised by some buyback if the line reaches the key number of 14.

Model Projections edge: Arkansas State


Try PRO for FREE for full access to our new College Football PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

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