NCAAF Week 6 rolls on with the night slate, and I have three college football picks for the final window of the week, including an underdog in an all-Florida battle.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 6, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 18-14-2 (56.25%)
- Overall: 187-137-3 (57.7%)
3 College Football Picks for Week 6 Night Slate
  | 7 p.m. | Wyoming +5.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Florida State +4.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Nevada +14 |
Wyoming +5.5 vs. UNLV
7 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
I've been itching to fade UNLV again for the past two weeks while the Rebels enjoyed their bye week. No team has a more laughable 4-0 resume than UNLV, which has wins over UCLA, Sam Houston, Idaho State and Miami (OH).
Those four opponents have a combined zero victories against FBS foes.
It's also worth noting that the Rebels were on the verge of getting run off the field in Oxford until Miami (OH) lost starting quarterback Dequan Finn to an injury on a play where he threw a pick-six.
Still, even with a backup quarterback who isn't capable of running the offense Finn does, the RedHawks found themselves in a position to win before fumbling in the red zone in the final minutes of a tie game. It was one of the luckiest wins of the season.
While I don't love this Wyoming team, its offense does have a little more juice this season with quarterback Kaden Anderson.
The Pokes, who have played a significantly more difficult schedule, have also found something over their past two games with freshman running back Samuel Harris, who had 19 carries against Colorado after only 18 combined over the first three games.
He's averaging 6.9 yards per rush and should have a very productive day at the office against a UNLV defense that can't stop the run.
On the season against a clown car schedule, the Rebels defense ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate allowed and sits in the bottom-10 nationally in Rush EPA allowed.
Additionally, UNLV has been extremely fortunate on late downs on both sides of the ball. On third downs alone, the Rebels have converted a ridiculous 52% on offense, while holding opponents to just 21%.
Despite ranking outside the top 100 in early downs EPA, they rank in the top 15 in late down Success Rate. And on offense, they rank second on late downs despite sitting right around the national average on early downs.
They've also enjoyed a +6 turnover margin.
Lastly, Wyoming could benefit from some good old-fashioned fall weather in Laramie against the indoor Rebs. It could be a colder night with some precipitation and wind, which would be much more detrimental to the UNLV offense.
Notable Nugget
Wyoming has gone 13-1 ATS (92.9%) as a home conference dog of more than a field goal over the past 10 seasons, covering by an average margin of 11.21 points per game.
The Cowboys have won eight of those 14 games outright with an average spread of 11.
Pick: Wyoming +5.5 (Play to +4)
Florida State +4.5 vs. Miami
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Is there a chance we are overrating Miami? I do have the Hurricanes power-rated as a top-five team in the country, but they did benefit from facing CJ Carr in his first-ever start (on the road) and a USF team in one of the worst situational spots of the entire season.
Their other FBS win came over a completely lost Florida offense. And they've done all of that work in the friendly confines of Hard Rock Stadium.
Things might not go as smoothly in their first road game of the season in front of what should be a completely ludicrous crowd in Tallahassee.
I'm confident in the fact that Miami has one of the top trenches in the entire country. It will certainly hold an edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against the Noles.
However, that's where this unique Gus Malzahn offense could come into play, with Tommy Castellanos' legs being a critical factor for an offense that can use Miami's aggressiveness up front in its favor.
We've also seen Carson Beck struggle much more on the road in his career.
Last season at Georgia, Beck threw for 25 touchdowns to just five interceptions at home, while those splits deteriorated on the road with a 10% drop in completion percentage, a 3:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a sack rate that more than doubled.
Even with Miami power-rated as the fifth-best team in the country, I still project this spread at right around a field goal. Plus, I still don't fully trust Mario Cristobal as a favorite against a competent team, and I do still have some lingering doubts about the kicking situation.
It's time to sell high on Miami and buy the dip on Florida State, which easily took care of business at home against an Alabama team that has looked fantastic since. And if all else fails, trust in Mario to mess it up.
Notable Nugget
As a road favorite of at least a field goal against P4 competition, Mario Cristobal has gone 16-26 ATS (38.1%), failing to cover by over four points per game on average. That includes a 4-12 ATS mark (29.4%) at Miami in league games with a -8.5 average cover margin.
Meanwhile, Mike Norvell owns an impressive 7-1 ATS record (87.5%) as a home dog against ranked foes with a +8.5 average cover margin. He has won four of those eight contests outright, with the one ATS defeat coming in a flukey loss at Clemson.
Pick: Florida State +4.5 or Better
Nevada +14 at Fresno State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
I believe this is a great opportunity to buy the Wolf Pack, who will head to Fresno for their conference opener following a bye week.
Fresno State also had a bye last week, but I believe Nevada has the coaching edge, so I think it will benefit more from the two weeks off.
These two teams have lived polar opposite lives in the luck department so far in 2025, which may be creating a bit of value in this spot.
Let's start with Fresno State. Following a Week 0 loss at Kansas, the Bulldogs have rattled off four straight wins. The first came at home against the horrific Georgia Southern defense. That was well deserved, as was the victory over FCS Southern.
However, the other two could (should?) have easily gone the other way.
They beat Oregon State by nine (thanks to a late pick-six in the final seconds) in a game the Beavers finished with 210 more yards (528-318) and led going into the fourth quarter.
Fresno pulled off a similar feat on the island in a game it also trailed going into the fourth quarter and lost the yardage battle thanks to four Hawaii turnovers.
Now, let's look at Nevada. After an opening season loss at Penn State, the Wolf Pack beat FCS Sacramento State. They then lost their next two against Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky despite leading going into the fourth quarter and finishing with more yards in both.
Against the Blue Raiders, the Wolf Pack led, 13-0, in the fourth quarter before allowing two late touchdowns sandwiched in between a Nevada interception and two missed field goals. It has been the complete opposite story of Fresno.
While this may look like 4-1 Fresno vs. 1-3 Nevada, it easily could be 2-3 Fresno vs. 3-1 Nevada.
You can also look at each respective quarterback to paint the same picture. EJ Warner has a 5:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio despite only two big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays, while Chubba Purdy has a 1:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio despite a marginally better BTT-TWP ratio of 2:7.
This is a big number for Fresno to cover in a matchup of two slow-paced, run-heavy teams.
Nevada has been absolutely dreadful in the red zone, but I expect some natural positive regression in that department and for head coach Jeff Choate to iron out some of those issues during the bye week.
Keep in mind, this is a team that thrived in scoring range last season. In what should be an ugly one late at night, I'll happily take the two touchdowns.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, no team in college football has cost bettors more as a double-digit home conference favorite than Fresno State. Over that span, the Bulldogs have gone 13-27-1 ATS (32.5%), failing to cover by nearly a touchdown per game.
Pick: Nevada +14
