Another week of the college football season means another week of finding value on some of the biggest games of the week.
For Week 12, I broke down 3 games and dished out a pick (or 2) for each.
We'll start out in Pittsburgh, as the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the No. 22 Pitt Panthers in a game they need for College Football Playoff consideration.
Then, we'll head to one of the biggest games of the week in Tuscaloosa, as the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners meet the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide in a major SEC showdown.
Finally, we'll close things out with a top-10 clash between the No. 10 Texas Longhorns and No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges.
Without further ado, let's take a look at my Week 12 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, November 15.
College Football Picks, Predictions for Week 12
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of Week 12 games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Notre Dame vs Pitt Pick
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the Pitt Panthers in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Notre Dame is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. Pitt, meanwhile, enters as a +12.5 underdog and is +350 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my Notre Dame vs. Pitt prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame hit its stride in its most recent victory, a 49-10 beatdown of a Navy team without its starting quarterback.
The Fighting Irish continue to field one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, ranking top-20 in both Rush EPA and Pass EPA.
Notre Dame is also the most explosive team in standard downs, as running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price continue to hammer careless defenses.
Defensive coordinator Chris Ash's 3-3-5 defense has improved since its two opening losses to start the season. Notre Dame now has a strength of schedule inside the top 30, ranking top-35 in nearly every category.
A rank of 17th in Finishing Drives allowed shows the Irish's nature of allowing methodical drives before stiffening when opponents get into scoring position.
One way to attack Notre Dame is on the ground, as the Irish sit outside the top 60 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate with poor Success Rate numbers against man blocking tendencies.
Pitt Panthers
Mason Heintschel took over as the starting quarterback in Week 6 and has not looked back.
The freshman has thrown 12 touchdowns to just five interceptions. However, he has made mistakes under pressure. Heintschel's turnover-worthy play rate has shot up to 6.3% in the 70 dropbacks in a crowded pocket.
The Pitt offensive line also hasn't protected well over the past five games, ranking 94th in Havoc allowed. Keeping a clean pocket will be crucial for the Panthers, as Notre Dame ranks 13th in pass rush.
Defensive coordinator Randy Bates has put together another elite version of the Pittsburgh defense. The 2025 Panthers rank top-five in defensive rush efficiency, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The Panthers have been excellent against any run concept, creating a negative EPA against zone read, power, counter and man blocking schemes.
Where Pitt struggles is keeping opponents off the scoreboard in scoring opportunities. The Panthers sit near dead last in opponent red-zone conversions, ranking 111th in Finishing Drives allowed.
Notre Dame vs Pitt Prediction
A few comments from Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi about the importance of this game had the markets selling the Panthers. Narduzzi mentioned that Notre Dame can "put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that," referencing that the goal is the ACC Championship.
The Irish took heavy steam after the comments despite Narduzzi also mentioning the team will "play hard" in Week 12.
Ultimately, Pitt has the ability to stop Notre Dame's ground attack.
Price and Love will use a heavy dose of outside zone against edge rushers Jimmy Scott and Isaiah Neal. Pitt has a 57% Success Rate against outside zone while creating a negative play on 17% of opponent attempts.
Notre Dame's best chance of success will come through the air. The Panthers rank 78th in Pass EPA allowed, so quarterback CJ Carr will have chances to get into scoring position against a Pitt defense that has been plundered in the red zone.
The bigger question is whether or not the Pitt offense can answer against an improved Notre Dame defense.
Explosives from Heintschel will be the key, but Notre Dame ranks 35th in Pass EPA allowed and 18th in pass breakups per game. The heavy man coverage from the Irish will provide a window of mistakes from Heintschel, who has posted a Success Rate of just 45% against the tendency.
Action Network projects Notre Dame as a 6-point favorite, as the market drifts farther in the direction of the Irish in double digits.
While there's no reason to think Pitt doesn't play this game at full effort, there are reasons for backing Carr's passing props.
Pick: Pitt +11.5 · CJ Carr Over 260.5 Passing Yards
| | |
Oklahoma vs Alabama Pick
The Oklahoma Sooners take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. Oklahoma, meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +185 ont he moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 points.
Here’s my Oklahoma vs. Alabama prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma will face a third consecutive top-15 team with aspirations of making the College Football Playoff.
Quarterback John Mateer has been lackluster in three games following a meltdown loss against Texas. The Washington State transfer has generated just three all-purpose touchdowns and a couple of turnover-worthy plays.
If there's a notable nugget from the Sooners' last game, Mateer ran for a season-high three explosives while forcing three missed tackles.
The Oklahoma defense continues to be one of the best in the nation, fielding the best rank of all FBS teams in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
Defensive interior David Stone is one of the best nationally in stopping the run, while edge rushers Taylor Wein and R Mason Thomas have combined for 50 pressures.
This is the second-ranked Havoc unit in the nation without many weaknesses.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama struggled to get a quality game from the offense in an 11-point victory over LSU last week. The Crimson Tide failed to produce a methodical drive, averaging 2.6 yards per play on 25 rushing attempts.
Special teams played a surprise role in the victory over the Tigers, as Alabama ranks 84th in SP+ Special Teams but logged 133 hidden yards in that game.
Quarterback Ty Simpson had an uncharacteristically off night, completing just 21-of-35 passes while lowering his on-target rank to 28th among of all FBS quarterbacks.
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has struggled to create a run-stopping defense for Alabama. The Crimson Tide sit outside the top 50 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
The coverage unit has been elite in passing downs, but Alabama continues to fail in generating a pass rush.
Teams that can create consistent gains in the trench have troubled Alabama, particularly opposing teams with quarterback mobility.
Oklahoma vs Alabama Prediction
Alabama has had consistent issues with mobile quarterbacks.
South Carolina gave the Tide all it could handle thanks to LaNorris Sellers leading the Gamecocks in rushing yards with a touchdown.
Missouri lost to Alabama by a field goal after a Herculean effort from quarterback Beau Pribula, leading the Tigers in rushing with 61 yards and a touchdown.
Those numbers pale in comparison to the season opener with Tommy Castellanos from Florida State, who went for 78 yards on the ground with a touchdown.
Mateer heated up on designed rush attempts against Tennessee and can be a major factor in the outcome of Week 12.
Simpson may have issues getting the Alabama offense down the field against the Sooners. Oklahoma ranks 10th of all FBS defenses in creating a contested catch, an issue for targets such as Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams.
There will be no help from the run game, as Jam Miller averaged 1.6 yards per carry against LSU. The Tide sit 112th in rush efficiency and are now going against the best run defense in FBS.
Action Network projects Alabama as a 6-point favorite, but the matchups indicate a heavy Oklahoma advantage through defense and on the ground with Mateer.
With the recent history of mobile quarterbacks creating close calls for Alabama, look for Mateer to potentially throw a roadblock in the Crimson Tide's quest to win the SEC.
Pick: Oklahoma +6 or Better · John Mateer Over 27.5 Rushing Yards
| | |
Texas vs Georgia Pick
The Texas Longhorns take on the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, Georgia, on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. Texas, meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +185 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Georgia prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Texas Longhorns
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian came up empty twice against Georgia a season ago, once in Austin and the next in the SEC Championship game.
Texas will look for double revenge in a game that should be dominated by the defenses.
The Longhorns have been fantastic against the rush in terms of high-level analytics, ranking top-20 in defensive efficiency, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
A closer look at run concepts shows an inefficiency against inside zone read, compiling a low 42% Success Rate.
Arch Manning has busted out the passing game in two previous victories over Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.
The quarterback threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in each game and hasn't committed a turnover-worthy play since the Red River Rivalry win over Oklahoma.
The problem with Texas continues to be a lack of execution in scoring position. The Longhorns rank 110th in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Texas generated 4.1 points per scoring attempt in its most recent game against Mississippi State, indicating that it could find success against a Georgia defense that's 116th in Finishing Drives allowed.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia has consistently started games slowly over the past two seasons, most recently putting up just a field goal in the first quarter against Mississippi State.
The scripted portion for offensive coordinator Mike Bobo hasn't produced results, but the offense continues to be one of the best in creating quality drives and executing on scoring attempts.
Georgia ranks top-15 in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives, while also sitting third in offensive momentum killer, which measures fumbles, missed field goals, sacks, fourth-down turnovers and penalties. Georgia comes in just behind Ohio State and Indiana in that category.
After producing national title-caliber defenses that dominated opponents, head coach Kirby Smart is looking for answers.
The Bulldogs are bottom-15 in Havoc, failing to produce any kind of pass rush. The nickel defense never sends more than four rushers, leaning on a rank of second in PFF tackling and 15th in broken tackles allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
Special teams also deserve a mention, as the Bulldogs are the top overall team, per SP+. Georgia comes into the game as the top punting team in the nation and ranks third in kickoff defense.
Texas vs Georgia Prediction
Texas lost both games against Georgia in 2024 despite allowing only 4.1 yards per play and scooping five turnovers.
The loss was more about offensive play-calling in scoring opportunities, racking up an abysmal 1.8 points per trip in more than a half-dozen possessions that crossed the Georgia 40-yard line.
The Longhorns had the lead during the first quarter and first half of the SEC Championship, yet another win when fading Georgia early in games.
Texas currently has a +4.3 scoring differential in the first quarter of games in 2025, well beyond Georgia at -0.4 in its first quarters.
Action Network's betting power ratings call for Georgia to win this game by a touchdown, but no pregame bet can be made with the expectation of being behind early.
A live bet is always recommended on Georgia with respect to the Middle 8, as the Bulldogs rank 24th compared to the Longhorns at 84th.
However, there may be room for a wager on the over with a projection of 53. Both defenses are at a disadvantage from a Finishing Drives perspective. Texas has a massive edge in pass explosives against the back end of the Georgia defense.
Pick: Over 49 · Texas 1Q Moneyline (+150)
