Just like the past three seasons, I'll share my favorite Saturday spots on each week's college football slate.
My primary goal here is to simply discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my seven favorite Week 2 spots. Like most weeks, you're probably going to cringe at some of the teams that made the cut.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 70-53-1 (58.9%)
- 2025: 0-0 (0%)
- Overall: 169-123-2 (57.9%)
Let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday's Week 2 slate.
College Football Picks, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | San Jose State +36.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Pitt -21 |
  | 12 p.m. | Baylor +4.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Cincinnati -20.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UAB +21.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Charlotte +15.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Virginia Tech ML -110 |
San Jose State +36.5 at Texas
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
It would be extremely logical to think that Texas will come out with its hair on fire following a Week 1 loss in Columbus. As a result, the Horns should absolutely demolish a Mountain West team in their home opener.
While that may prove true with a massive talent gap, historically, that has not been the case for top-tiered teams in this spot. More often than not, large ranked favorites come out flatter than you may expect after a high-profile game.
Plus, the line can come out a bit inflated in the obvious bounce-back spot on paper.
The Texas defense looked excellent, holding Ohio State to just 203 total yards. However, the offense with plenty of new pieces looked pretty wonky.
Quarterback Arch Manning had major accuracy issues and didn't look completely comfortable in the pocket. While he will undoubtedly look much sharper this week against a much less inferior opponent, the offense might still take some time to work out all of the kinks.
There's also a chance Manning just never fully lives up to the hype. He also doesn't solve all of the red-zone issues Texas has had in recent seasons that burned it once again last Saturday.
Meanwhile, San Jose State also comes off an opening-season loss as a double-digit home favorite against Central Michigan.
It was certainly a disappointing result for a veteran team expected to compete for a Mountain West title, but I'm willing to give it a bit of a pass against a brand-new CMU offense that really caught it off guard early in the game.
After jumping out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, the Chips mustered only 215 total yards over their next 49 plays (4.4 yards per play) and added a pair of field goals en route to a 16-14 victory.
The Spartans also lost the turnover battle, 3-0, and missed a pair of fourth-quarter field goals in a two-point loss.
It's going to be tough sledding for the San Jose State offense.
I doubt it will have much success running the ball, and Nick Nash isn't walking through the door to help out the passing attack — although, Sacramento State transfer Danny Scudero did have nine catches for 189 yards in his team debut.
However, this is still an experienced club that should come out with a fully focused effort (with an extra day of preparation) after a sour opening-season loss.
Plus, as I mentioned previously, Texas could come out flatter than you might predict in its home opener without any difficult opponent on the horizon for the next month.
Most importantly, this is just too big a number compared to my projection of under five touchdowns. This is a large number to cover against a competent team, especially if the offense continues to struggle a bit.
Notable Nugget: Top-15 teams coming off a top-15 loss as 30-plus point favorites have gone 26% ATS over the past 20 seasons, failing to cover by an average of 7.5 points per game.
Notable Nugget
Top-15 teams coming off a top-15 loss as 30-plus point favorites have gone 26% ATS over the past 20 seasons, failing to cover by an average of 7.5 points per game.
Projection: +32.3
Pick: San Jose State +36.5 (Play to +35.5 · Monitoring market to see if this rises back to 37 or38 before locking in)
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Pitt -21 vs. Central Michigan
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
I just talked about the Chippewas benefiting last week from unveiling their unique run-heavy offense that uses multiple quarterbacks against an opponent that had no idea what to expect.
Well, that won't be the case this week since Pitt will have film on the run scheme and personnel new head coach Matt Drinkall utilized last week.
Additionally, you need to attack this Pitt defense through the air and take advantage of its aggressive coverage on the outside. Central Michigan simply doesn't have the ability to complete that task.
The strength of this Panther defense lies up front, highlighted by an outstanding group of linebackers. They're built to stop a ground-and-pound offensive attack like this.
Expect plenty of run stuffs and negative plays, putting CMU behind the chains, where it will likely be helpless.
I don't love laying three touchdowns against a team that profiles like a service academy (Drinkall came from Army) since they want to shorten the game and limit the amount of overall possessions, which isn't ideal for covering a big number.
However, I'm making an exception here based on the spot, matchup and my projection.
Pitt at least plays with pace and should find plenty of explosive plays through the air and ground with Eli Holstein and Desmond Reid. This team is built to blow out clearly inferior competition.
Lastly, it's not the most ideal situational spot for CMU. Fresh off a hard-fought upset win on the West Coast, it comes back across the country for another road game against Pitt (which stays in its own neighborhood after cruising to a win over an FCS opponent) before taking on in-state big brother Michigan.
Things could get ugly in Acrisure Stadium.
Projection: Pitt -24.2
Pick: Pitt -21 (Play to -22.5)
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Baylor +4.5 at SMU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
I'm buying Baylor this week after its defense got shredded by Jackson Arnold and the Auburn rushing attack in Week 1.
The Tigers dominated in the trenches, but the test likely won't be as difficult this week against, especially against an SMU rushing attack that struggled to get push in a sloppy effort against East Texas A&M.
It's also worth noting that SMU might be without a starting receiver and linebacker, who were both hurt in the opener.
So, what went wrong for Baylor last week?
The offensive line had issues at times, but you can't really fault Sawyer Robertson and company. They finished with more yards and a higher yards per play (6.7!), even with a long run getting called back due to a questionable hold.
They just shot themselves in the foot inside the red zone a few times, coming away with no points. Auburn also had a kick-return touchdown, which certainly didn't help matters.
The problems came on the defensive side of the ball.
Head coach Dave Aranda talked about stopping the run countless times leading up to the game, but he simply sat back in coverage, allowing Auburn to run for over 300 yards.
The lack of adjustments was concerning, especially once they lost stud defensive lineman Jackie Marshall (with another key defender banged up along the interior) in the first quarter.
They just didn't have the horses up front to slow Baylor down without help.
I'd imagine the game plan changes some on that side of the ball, where they should see the return of a key defensive back and don't have to face Auburn's elite wide receiver corps.
However, even that same approach should have much more success against a more pass-heavy SMU offensive attack that looks as if it won't have an elite ground game.
Ultimately, I just trust the Baylor offense more at this point, especially against an SMU defense that lost an abundance of talent from a dominant 2024 unit.
Projection: Baylor +1.8
Pick: Baylor +4.5 (Play to +3)
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Cincinnati -20.5 vs. Bowling Green
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Bowling Green experienced massive turnover in the offseason with a mass exodus of seniors on both sides of the ball, in addition to bringing in a brand-new staff led by head coach Eddie George.
On paper, George passed his first test with a 26-7 win over FCS Lafayette. However, if you watched that game, it wasn't pretty.
The Falcons benefited from an opening kickoff return touchdown and added another short-field touchdown to take a 17-3 lead into the half.
The offense looked rough under new quarterback Drew Pyne, who arrived late to campus this summer to take over a new offense in his fourth collegiate stop.
Pyne, who finished just 12-of-18 for 109 yards, likely won't find any success through the air against the Bearcats, who also have the defensive line to completely disrupt BG's run-heavy offense.
I'm just not really sure how the Falcons realistically sustain any drives in this game unless Harold Fannin magically regains eligibility.
Cincy's offense struggled immensely against Nebraska, especially through the air. While the Bearcats did eclipse 200 yards on the ground, Sorsby finished a pitiful 13-of-25 for 69 yards, capped off by the game-sealing interception.
I'm sure they want to get the bad taste out of their mouth, and a rebuilt wide receiver room should have much more success against a Bowling Green defense that lost a lot of talent from last year's stingy unit.
Scott Satterfield can't be trusted in close games, but we're in trouble if this plays out that way. I'd imagine this could end up looking like Cincy's 34-0 home win over Houston last season.
Notable Nugget
Satterfield is 26-17-1 ATS (60.5%) as a double-digit favorite vs. FBS competition.
Projection: Cincinnati -23.8
Pick: Cincinnati -20.5 (Play to -21)
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UAB +21.5 at Navy
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
A service academy laying over three touchdowns? The 'dog will always pique my interest in that scenario (although Navy isn't certainly much more explosive than in years past).
The problem in this case is that it requires one to place real currency on Trent Dilfer and the dumpster fire UAB program. Reluctantly, I bit.
Navy did win in Birmingham last year by a score of 41-18 as a 5.5-point favorite. However, both teams had 22 first downs, and UAB finished with only about 50 fewer total yards (452-395).
The Blazers did successfully move the ball but just shot themselves in the foot with two turnovers and over 100 penalty yards.
The offense has enough juice to put up some points against a Navy defense that lost its top two linebackers and three key defensive backs from one of its best secondaries in years.
The biggest concern for UAB is its defense, which was torched by Alabama State last week. The Blazers should be healthier this week on that side of the ball, but the front seven is super reliant on a lot of lower-level guys.
I did like a lot of the transfers they added on the back end, but the results weren't great in Week 1 against an FCS opponent.
Navy did whatever it wanted on offense in last year's meeting, but the Midshipmen do have some questions along the offensive line — particularly at tackle — a position of uber-importance in terms of communication up front.
Can UAB take advantage? Probably not, but it did at least see this new-look Navy offense last year.
Additionally, the Blazers hired Steve Russ (and a number of NFL assistants) to run the defense in the offseason. Russ spent years with Air Force, so he has plenty of experience game-planning for these types of offenses. That's a major potential edge.
Bottom line, this is too many points for a UAB offense that can keep this close enough.
Plus, Navy has some looming regression in the red zone and turnover departments after last season. The Blazers may also have a special teams edge in this one.
I'm holding my nose and taking the points.
Notable Nugget
As favorites of more than two touchdowns against FBS teams, the three service academies (Navy, Army and Air Force) have gone 27-41 ATS (39.7%) since 2005.
Projection: +18.2
Pick: UAB +21.5 (Play to +21)
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Charlotte +15.5 vs. North Carolina
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Charlotte looked horrendous in Week 1. The 49ers should've lost by 50 in all honesty.
The same can be said for UNC. The Heels did absolutely nothing after the opening drive of the game in an embarrassing home loss.
It's hard to gauge just how poor these teams — with brand-new rosters, quarterbacks and coaches — potentially could be compared to preseason expectations after just one week, but both appear to have many more questions than answers.
I downgraded UNC close to a touchdown. Could I be way off? Certainly. I also may not have downgraded Charlotte enough.
However, I'm willing to pay to make UNC prove it can win by more than two touchdowns after what I saw last week, especially in a brutal situational spot.
While Charlotte played on Friday night, giving it an extra day of rest and preparation than normal ahead of this game (which is even more critical with a new staff and roster), North Carolina played on Monday night in a game that had a ton of hype and buildup.
How much can Belichick and his staff fix in just four days? Is he in over his head? Was the roster construction completely flawed? These are all legitimate questions worth pondering after what we saw on the field last week.
Lastly, this is Charlotte's Super Bowl in its home stadium against its in-state older brother with many noticeable leaks to plug on extremely short rest.
Projection: +13.5
Pick: Charlotte +15.5 (Play to +14.5)
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Virginia Tech ML -110 vs. Vanderbilt
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
This isn't the most ideal situational spot. Virginia Tech played on Sunday in a physical battle against an SEC opponent, and now it plays a unique Vanderbilt offense that had a cakewalk against an FCS opponent.
However, I'm riding with my guy Sam Siefkes — VT's new defensive coordinator, who had LaNorris Sellers in a blender for most of that game on Sunday.
The Hokies defense is astronomically better year-over-year from a schematic perspective, and they did spend time this summer prepping for Vanderbilt.
There are still some questions at cornerback, but it's not like Vanderbilt's receivers are going to blow anybody away, especially after losing Quincy Skinner Jr. and No. 1 receiver Junior Sherrill potentially being out with an injury.
I do like the Vanderbilt defensive line, but it's certainly not at the same caliber as what South Carolina has, which should be welcome news for the brand-new Virginia Tech offensive line.
Vanderbilt also has questions on the back end after losing two underrated veterans. The Hokies have the talent at wide receiver in Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene to take advantage.
Quarterback Kyron Drones will just need to actually hit some of his open receivers. He should at least have more time in the pocket this time around.
I actually upgraded Virginia Tech after last week, despite not covering against South Carolina.
That game flipped on a punt illegal formation call that led to an 80-yard punt return touchdown. Despite a 75-yard late touchdown pass and a clock-killing drive by the Gamecocks, both teams finished with nearly identical yardage.
This is an all-in spot for Virginia Tech and head coach Brent Pry. The Hokies had the patented players-only meeting and are looking to avenge last season's opening game loss to this same Vanderbilt team as two-touchdown favorites.
Lane Stadium at night with some optimism after Week 1? This is a max effort spot and a game I think should be -3, so I'll take a shot with a cheap ML.
Lastly, it's worth noting that Virginia Tech should get a major boost in the backfield with the return of Terion Stewart. Plus, Vanderbilt has a date with South Carolina on deck.
Pick: Virginia Tech ML -110
