Week 9 of the college football season is here, so it's time to take a look at the odds board and see what kind of value we can find before lines move this week.
For the second time in three weeks, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is looking at the ACC for his top early bet of the week.
Let's dive into Wilson's college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Virginia vs. UNC in Week 9 below.
Virginia vs UNC Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -380 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +290 |
With a remaining Strength of Schedule rank of 70th, it may be time to give Virginia a proper examination in terms of its College Football Playoff eligibility.
The Cavaliers have one loss on the season, a Week 2 conference opener against NC State. The Wolfpack won by only four points but ended with a 94% post-game win expectancy.
In a way, looking at a team's trend in post-game win expectancy can help predict the future, as fraudulent box scores eventually tend to regress in the coming weeks.
Virginia has won three straight games with a sub-50% post-game win expectancy including:
- Washington State, 45%
- Louisville, 10%
- Florida State, 35%
Quarterback Chandler Morris leads a Virginia offense that struggles in pass protection, seeing 73 pressures in 231 dropbacks.
The Cavaliers will now take on a North Carolina team that has a pulse on defense, owning a pass rush rank in the top 50 and a Line Yards rank of 17th.
In a covering effort at Cal in Week 8, the Tar Heels produced a couple of sacks and six tackles for loss.
Action Network's betting power ratings make this line closer to Virginia -7, so don't be surprised if the Cavaliers' hot streak comes to an end in Chapel Hill.
Pick: North Carolina +9 or Better
