Welcome back as we continue our offseason regular-season win total series. Next up: the Big Ten.
Ohio State, Oregon and 2025-26 national champion Indiana headline the 18-team super conference, and all three have quite the case as to why they should be favored to win the league.
Penn State made some noise this offseason in hiring Matt Campbell away from Iowa State, as did Michigan in luring Utah's Kyle Whittingham away to Ann Arbor.
There are a few teams looking to ascend to the top of the Big Ten for the first time, including USC and Washington, which seek to take big steps forward with returning quarterbacks.
UCLA is also seeking to get back to national relevance, and Bob Chesney appears to be the right man for the job after successful stints at Holy Cross and James Madison.
From coaching and coordinator switches to an infusion of new talent throughout the league, there's a lot happening in the Big Ten.
I'm breaking down the win totals for every team in the league, along with recommendations and official plays for each team as we head into 2026.
With that said, let's dive into my 2026 Big Ten picks and my college football win totals for the upcoming season.
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Welcome to our Big Ten win totals preview. To navigate directly to a specific team section, simply click on a logo above.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Win Total: 7.5 (+142o / -176u)
Illinois actually made some good strides during the 2025 campaign, which saw the Illini finish 9-4 with a bowl game victory over Tennessee.
While not quite ready to compete with the upper echelon in the Big Ten, Illinois picked impressive wins in the nonconference along with a Week 5 victory over USC.
The offense was efficient at times but failed to register enough explosiveness to really ascend.
Luke Altmyer departs at quarterback after a successful season, but the Illini are in good hands with Katin Houser, who comes in from East Carolina.
Houser is a gunslinger who has good mobility and will trust his arm strength — maybe too frequently at times, but he did cut down on turnovers last season while throwing for 3,322 yards and 19 touchdowns in the American Conference.
The running back room is loaded, and some good talent at wide receiver portals in from the Group of Five in Alex Perry (FIU) and Jayshon Platt (FAU).
These two were very productive at the G5 level and should fit right in, making this offense quite dangerous so long as the offensive line can retool.
That unit loses four of its five starters from last season but has some good young depth and sees some decent transfer talent come in.
The defensive front seven is going to need to be retooled quickly after much of the producing talent from last year departed. Illinois registered 29 sacks and 65 tackles for loss last year, but 13 of the top 15 tacklers departed.
This group will have to come together quickly to complement a fairly decent secondary. The defense was excellent at preventing explosiveness but struggled to get off the field on third down and in the red zone.
The nonconference schedule will provide Illinois opportunities to hit the win column three times, and there's a real scenario in which Illinois starts out 5-1.
I could see this group being favored in 9-10 games this season, but the end of the season is tough.
Illinois will be in five coin-flips as the season concludes, and I worry about the passing offense hitting its stride, especially with Houser stepping up in competition level. He struggled with turnovers at ECU, so cutting those down even further will be critical.
The Illini play just two of my projected top seven teams in the Big Ten while drawing six of the bottom nine. Illinois will be favored in six of its seven home games, and the road slate isn't overly daunting. It catches Michigan State, UCLA and Northwestern in decent scheduling spots and has plenty of winnable games.
The defensive front is the biggest question mark, but if talent develops and this team can register as many negative plays as last year, exceeding the win total isn't out of the question. I lean over, but I haven't fired away at of writing.
Pick: Illinois Over 7.5 Wins (Lean)
Indiana Hoosiers
Win Total: 10.5 (-120o / -102u)
Curt Cignetti has firmly cemented himself in Indiana lore following two wildly successful seasons, culminating with four straight victories over top-10 opponents, capped off by winning the National Championship last season.
This is, in my mind, the greatest program turnaround and coaching job we've ever seen at the college level over a two-year stint.
The coaching staff remains mostly intact, and some great portal talent transfers in. Indiana is once again primed and ready to run it back in 2026.
There's no denying the talent lost from last year's efficient and explosive offense, which averaged 6.8 yards per play.
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza departs at quarterback, allowing Josh Hoover to step in after a successful couple of seasons at TCU.
Hoover adds a dynamic running element to the position and should flourish within the offensive system.
Turbo Richard comes in at running back from Boston College, adding to what could be a strong room with Khobie Martin and Lee Beebe Jr. returning.
Indiana loses quite a bit of production from last year's receiving department, as five of the top six depart. Sure-handed Charlie Becker returns in 2026, and Nick Marsh (Michigan State) and Shazz Preston (Tulane) portal in after very productive stints at their previous stops.
Indiana loses its top three tight ends from last season, which is tough because the offense utilizes tight ends heavily at times. Brock Schott transfers in from Miami, and some decent young players could emerge.
The offensive line loses two starters, most notably Pat Coogan at center, and a couple of backups. Joe Brunner comes in from Wisconsin, but the Hoosiers will rely on the development of younger players. Outside of the starting platoon, there's not a ton of experience.
The biggest holes to fill on the defensive side come on the defensive line, where five of the top seven from last season depart. Three FBS transfers join the fold and should fill the void just fine.
Despite the departure of Aiden Fisher at linebacker, the rest of the production returns, and Tobi Osunsanmi transfers in from Kansas State.
The secondary should be in good shape as well, with three starters and four reserves in the two-deep returning.
Indiana did so many things well defensively last season, and the situational execution proved to be top-notch. If there's an opportunity for improvement here, it would be reducing the number of explosive plays allowed.
The schedule in the nonconference will, in all likelihood, see Indiana start with a comfortable 3-0 record. In fact, the Hoosiers will be at least two-touchdown favorites in their first six games, and I have them favored in 11 games overall.
Indiana will have three difficult road trips at Nebraska, Michigan and Washington, all in the back half of the schedule.
This team is very talented, and Cignetti has elevated the level of the program in a sustainable way. I expect Indiana to compete for the Big Ten Championship, and it will be a strong contender to win the national title again.
I think 10-2 is the floor this season for the Hoosiers, but it's fair to assume they're are going to get everyone's best shot in 2026. I'm passing on the win total at the current number, but I do lean over.
Pick: Pass (Lean Over)
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Iowa Hawkeyes
Win Total: 7.5 (-140o / +114u)
Iowa has been a program filled with extreme consistency both in on-field performance and coaching continuity.
Kirk Ferentz remains in Iowa City for his 28th year, and everyone on staff has been here for multiple seasons (with the exception of new special teams coordinator Chris Polizzi).
Last year, Iowa put together an impressive 9-4 season capped off by a ReliaQuest Bowl victory over Vanderbilt.
The offense capitalized on weaker opponents, while the defense was impressive in every Big Ten game except the opener at Rutgers.
Iowa did all this despite quarterback transfer Mark Gronowski not quite living up to the hype after transferring in from South Dakota State. Gronowski threw for just 1,741 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he did have 16 rushing touchdowns while finishing as the Hawkeyes' second-leading rusher.
He departed after finishing his final season, leaving Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski to battle it out to determine who will lead the offense. It's a legitimate competition, as there isn't a clear-cut leader after spring ball.
Kamari Moulton is back after leading the team in rushing last season, as is leading receiver DJ Vonnahme at tight end.
The rest of the skill-position battles will shake out in fall camp, with plenty of contributions expected from FCS transfers at running back and wide receiver.
The tight end room looks really good at Iowa, and it should be on par with what it has had.
There's a real chance the offensive line isn't up to the Hawkeyes' standard after they lost three starters to graduation. We should get a lot of snaps from last year's second platoon.
Last year, only seven Hawkeyes recorded a sack. Now, only 1.5 of the team's 26 sacks return. There's going to be a major overhaul in the front seven, as Iowa loses 10 of its top 13 tacklers from last season.
Seven FCS transfers were brought in to fill the void along the defensive line and in the secondary. The developmental system typically works at Iowa, but it appears there's going to be a drop in defensive effectiveness this season.
On the special teams front, kicker, punter and return units will also experience roster turnover.
After a projected 3-0 start in the nonconference, Iowa jumps right into it with three tough Big Ten games in a row. I project it as a 7.5-point or greater underdog in all three of those contests against Michigan, Ohio State and Washington.
After a midseason bye week, the Hawkeyes close with several comparable opponents and will be in dogfights the rest of the way.
Iowa knows how to win, and the program culture is something to be modeled in every FBS system. The coaches develop talent and get the most out of their players.
However, I do have concerns about having another mediocre quarterback with very few gamebreaker-type players at the skill positions. Gronowski was so good in the red zone last season, and his running ability will be missed.
I think there are too many questions on both sides of the ball, and I don't foresee the defense or special teams shutting opponents down like they have in the past.
I like the under here.
Pick: Iowa Under 7.5 Wins (Official Play)
Maryland Terrapins
Win Total: 4.5 (-170o / +138u)
Maryland has seen a disturbing trend during the Mike Locksley era, which now enters its eighth year.
The Terrapins once again started hot at 4-0 but didn't win another game the rest of the way. They have now failed to exceed their regular-season win total for three straight seasons.
Late-season non-competitiveness has created a hotter seat for Locksley, and some changes were made to better position the team and his staff.
Malik Washington returns at quarterback after a moderately successful freshman season. Washington threw for 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns while also becoming the team's second-leading rusher.
DeJuan Williams led the team with 501 rushing yards last season, and he returns, along with Old Dominion transfer Trequan Jones. Jones will be a welcome addition to a group that struggled with explosiveness and consistency.
The receiver group lost its top three contributors from last season, but it brings in excellent transfer additions in Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding (Old Dominion) and Chris Durr Jr. (Wyoming).
The tight end room looks great and should be able to contribute routinely. The offensive line allowed just nine sacks and 48 tackles for loss and is in great shape this season. I expect better rushing numbers from that group this season.
The defense played fairly well the first month of the season but was consistently shredded in Big Ten play.
Despite 19 team interceptions, the defense couldn't stop its opponent regularly, and it struggled situationally while allowing over six yards per play over the last eight weeks.
There's some returning talent along the defensive line, and they should be in good shape with four P4 transfers coming in.
The linebacker room is intact and should be the strength of the defense. Much of the secondary returns as well, so the Terps should be more formidable against the pass as the season progresses.
The schedule has its opportunities. A 2-1 or 3-0 nonconference start is expected. A home game against UCLA is winnable, as is a road trip to Nebraska.
There's an outside chance Maryland starts 4-1 or 5-0 before a trip to Columbus against the Buckeyes. The next four games are winnable for Maryland, including back-to-back home games against Rutgers and Illinois.
The Terps get to host Penn State in the finale after a trip to USC. Those are two of only three scenarios all season where I have Maryland projected as a sizeable underdog.
There's some variation in the market with some shops having 5.5, while others have 4.5. I would play over 4.5, if not for the consistent fading down the stretch.
It's a tough bet to make and will likely require two or three road wins to achieve, but the defense is experienced, and their talented quarterback should take another leap. I wouldn't be surprised to see Maryland in a bowl game.
Pick: Maryland Over 4.5 Wins
Michigan Wolverines
Win Total: 8.5 (+136o / -168u)
Michigan has seen a little bit of a backslide since winning back-to-back Big Ten Championships, along with the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship.
After a seven-win season in 2024, the Wolverines went 9-3 during the regular season last year and played pretty well all things considered.
There were clearly some off-the-field distractions, though, leading to the firing of Sherrone Moore, who was replaced by former Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham.
In 2025, the offensive explosiveness increased significantly thanks to a solid running game that averaged 5.44 yards per carry.
Quarterback Bryce Underwood also gained more confidence under center as the season progressed while adding a nice running element to the offense.
While the schedule wasn't overly difficult, UM flexed its muscles against the weaker teams in Big Ten play but fell short against the four stronger teams on its schedule.
Underwood returns, as does last year's leading rusher, Jordan Marshall. Explosive receivers must emerge to assist Underwood in his development, and given the coaching turnover, I expect more usage out of the tight end room.
The offensive line has some decent talent returning, and if holes can be filled along the left side of the line, this offense could end up being fairly productive on the ground.
The defensive front loses a tremendous amount of talent from last season and will need to replace key contributors off the edge, on the interior and at linebacker.
Talent transfers in from Utah, BYU, Michigan State and North Dakota State. If those players can gel together quickly, Michigan could have another strong front.
The secondary loses three starters from last season, so last year's second platoon will be tasked with maintaining the level of play that saw Michigan rank top-20 nationally in explosive plays surrendered.
I would guess we see the Wolverines go 2-1 in the nonconference, but they'll have a home opportunity to make a statement against Oklahoma.
Six of the first seven games come at home, but the road games are far from easy. Michigan has to go to Rutgers after playing Indiana and before an in-state rivalry game against Michigan State.
Road trips to Oregon and Ohio State are also two of the most difficult places to play, and Minnesota routinely plays well enough to hang around at home.
Michigan plays five of my top seven projected finishers in Big Ten league play while drawing just two of the bottom six.
There will be opportunities for this bunch to prove the doubters wrong, and I have Michigan favored in as many as nine games this season.
Underwood needs to take some steps forward this season, but the spring game didn't look pretty. UM also needs reliable pass-catchers to emerge in fall camp.
The offense was more explosive last season and could sustain that, but the schedule stiffens, and there's a new staff coming together. We will learn a lot after Week 2 against Oklahoma. I lean under on the win total.
Pick: Michigan Under 8.5 Wins (Lean)
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Michigan State Spartans
Win Total: 3.5 (-144o / +118u)
The 3-0 start for Michigan State provided a glimmer of hope for Jonathan Smith and this Spartans program in 2025, but the defensive depth was such a problem in the late stages of games down the stretch.
MSU would lose eight straight Big Ten games, but this team isn't too far away when you consider that it was in one-score games in the fourth quarter against USC, Minnesota and Iowa with a chance to win each of them.
The stop unit couldn't generate turnovers or negative plays last season, but Sparty was above average in preventing explosive plays.
Smith was eventually fired, allowing Pat Fitzgerald to return to the sidelines after a brief hiatus following his stint at Northwestern.
Every significant contributor in the front seven two-deep is gone defensively, so the top priority for defensive coordinator Joe Rossi has to be developing these players.
MSU needs more of a pass rush and has to be tougher up front while rotating in some bench players. Its depth will be tested as the season wears on.
Alessio Milivojevic returns at quarterback after throwing for 1,267 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.
Journeyman Cam Fancher has an opportunity to compete for the backup spot, but to be frank, it would be really bad if he were relied upon to log meaningful snaps at any point this season.
Running back Cam Edwards could shine in the offense after transferring in from UConn this offseason. Receivers need to emerge quickly, as four of the top five pass-catchers from 2025 departed.
The offensive line sees nearly a clean sweep of departing talent as well. All but starting right tackle Conner Moore and backup right guard Rakeem Johnson are gone. There are some solid and experienced portal additions, however, so the O-line could end up being OK here.
This will be a very interesting year for Fitzgerald in Year 1 at the helm. The win total reflects a non-competitive team, but I'm not sure that's what we have here.
MSU will be a double-digit favorite in each of its first two games of the season against MAC opponents and will flip the script and be a massive underdog on the road against Notre Dame in South Bend. A home bout with Nebraska has to be considered winnable, so a 3-1 start isn't out of the question.
Two more winnable home games follow a tough road game at Wisconsin, and a split between Illinois and Northwestern would speak volumes.
The next four games are brutal, and the Spartans will be 7.5-point 'dogs or worse against UCLA, Michigan, Washington and Oregon before finishing up at Rutgers.
MSU plays just one of my projected top-four finishers in league play while drawing four of the bottom seven — although, Wisconsin, UCLA and Northwestern are emerging programs that will be better than expected.
I would guess 4-5 wins can be expected this year, but I have Michigan State as a 'dog in 9-10 games overall.
I see no value in the regular-season win total, but there's some variance here. If you like the over, 3.5 is available. If you like the under, 4.5 is available.
Pick: Pass
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Win Total: 6.5 (+128o / -158u)
You are what your record says you are, and for the 2025 Minnesota Golden Gophers, that was 8-5.
Minnesota won its ninth straight bowl game against New Mexico in what might have been its best win of the season. The losses were ugly when stepping up in competition, as Minnesota scored 14 or fewer points in four losses while feasting on the worst teams in Big Ten play.
The offense wasn't proficient when it came to running the football. In fact, the Gophers were one of the least explosive offenses in the entire country.
Running backs Darius Taylor and Grant Washington return in the backfield and will join Drake Lindsey, who returns at quarterback.
Lindsey threw for 2,382 yards with 18 touchdown passes but will see some new faces at receiver as Noah Jennings (Cincinnati), Zion Steptoe (Tulsa) and Perry Thompson (Auburn) transfer in.
The offensive line looks to be in good shape, but developing the young tight ends will be critical in determining how potent this offense can be in 2026.
The defense played well last season, but you could argue that the positive metrics were due to a slower-paced, ball-control offense while also playing weaker opponents.
Twenty-three of the team's 39 sacks were recorded in three games, and the third-down defense was propped up by exceptional performances in nonconference play.
This unit was not prepared to compete against the elite teams in the Big Ten, but there are some nice transfers along the defensive line from Cal, FIU and Marshall that should fit in just fine.
Maverick Baranowski returns to anchor the linebacker room, along with four other players who played sporadically last season.
The secondary struggled in 2025 and will need to replace cornerbacks on the outside and both reliable players at the nickel position.
Minnesota will have a great opportunity to start 3-0 in the nonconference while hosting Eastern Illinois, Mississippi State and Akron.
However, I expect the Gophers to be underdogs in most of their road games, and they won't be prohibitive favorites in any of their Big Ten games played at home.
While Minnesota only has to play one of the projected top four teams in the conference, it draws just one of the bottom four when it plays Purdue on the road.
I have Minnesota favored in six games this season while being a small underdog in a couple of other games, so there will be opportunities for the Gophers to exceed their win total — just as they have in four of the previous five seasons.
They catch Indiana in a great spot with the Hoosiers playing their ninth straight week coming off a brutal stretch, and they face Iowa off a bye week as well.
I wouldn't be stunned to see Minnesota win a game it shouldn't (Washington or Michigan?), but I could see losses against Purdue, UCLA or Northwestern.
The offense has struggled to rack up explosive plays, and they won't have the bottom teams in the Big Ten to feast on like last season. This win total is a pass for me.
Pick: Pass
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Win Total: 6.5 (+126o / -154u)
Matt Rhule's third season in Lincoln went a lot like his first couple of campaigns on the Huskers' sidelines. A promising hot start faded quickly during the second half of the schedule, concluding with another disappointing loss to rival Iowa.
Quarterback Dylan Raiola struggled through injury down the stretch, which eventually knocked him out for the season as the Huskers lost four out of five games to close out 2025, the last three in blowout fashion.
The defense, which played so well for the first three weeks, was shredded routinely. The front couldn't stop the run or get off the field on third down.
While the win total has increased each year since 2021, Nebraska has failed to exceed its mark every year during that time. Last season has to be considered a disappointment once again.
Raiola moved on to Oregon, so Nebraska brought in UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea while TJ Lateef remains the likely backup.
The departure of running back Emmett Johnson is a big loss for the offense, but it appears to be "next guy up" after no one portalled in. Mekhi Nelson and Kwinten Ives figure to get plenty of carries in 2026.
Most of the receiving production returns, and Kwazi Gilmer enters after a solid season at UCLA. While the offensive line loses three starters from last season, there's some decent incoming P4 talent that should fill the void just fine.
Defensively, Nebraska loses a significant amount of production in the front seven. Jahsear Whittington and Anthony Jones Jr. come in to shore up the line, so there's some decent depth in the trenches.
The linebacker room loses quite a bit, as three of the top four depart, but transfers from Iowa State, Oregon State and SDSU will have opportunities to contribute immediately.
The secondary has some decent returning talent and has developed depth, so I would suspect a similar performance from this group as last year.
Nebraska has a manageable nonconference schedule and will be four-score favorites in each of its first three games.
The conference and road opener against Michigan State will provide a stiff test, as will a home bout with Maryland. The Huskers might be favorites in each of their first five games, but the second half of the slate is tougher. I have Nebraska favored only once or twice the rest of the way.
The conference home slate is brutal, along with road games at Oregon and Iowa. The Huskers play six of my top nine projected finishers in Big Ten play, including each of the top three.
Nebraska does catch Indiana and Ohio State in decent scheduling spots, but this conference slate is not going to be easy.
Colandrea will add a dynamic rushing element that could spark production from the offense, but the defense is really going to have to improve. Nebraska gave up six yards per play over the last 10 games of the season, and I could see these guys wearing down as the season progresses.
I lean over the low win total slightly, but I just don't trust a team with this consistent late-season negative trend.
Pick: Nebraska Over 6.5 Wins (Lean)
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Northwestern Wildcats
Win Total: 5.5 (-112o / -108u)
Northwestern rebounded nicely in 2025 with a 6-6 regular season while playing very competitively against some good competition in the Big Ten.
The passing game came around thanks to South Dakota State transfer Griffin Wilde hauling in 71 receptions for 880 yards and eight touchdowns, all team highs.
Wilde should lead the way again, but everyone returns in the skill-position rooms. If the tight end room improves, this offense could be much more explosive in the first year of the system under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
There's size along the offensive line, and some decent transfers should add depth.
The glaring issue is at quarterback, where Preston Stone departs. Gavin Frakes is back and should compete for the backup role, as both Nicco Marchiol and Aidan Chiles transfer in to compete for the starting job.
Head coach David Braun made a splash this offseason in hiring Kelly to run the offense, while Jerry Neuheisel comes in to coach the quarterbacks. I'll be watching this quarterback battle intently during fall camp so we can get an idea of what the offense will look like and how the QB run will fit into the overall scheme.
The defense played really well at times in 2025, but it did struggle to stop the run against the elite rushing offenses on its schedule. Northwestern forced some timely turnovers, and the secondary was great at preventing explosive plays, finishing top-40 in FBS.
However, the defensive line wasn't quite as impactful, and most of the production is gone from last season. Michael Kilbane returns, though, and there's some incoming talent via the portal that comes in.
The linebacker room is in good shape, and there's some returning production in the secondary.
The special teams are going through some transition after losing their kicker and punter. Now, it'll be breaking in new specialists.
The schedule gives Northwestern an opportunity to notch three wins, and this bunch should be touchdown-or-greater favorites in all three nonconference games. The Wildcats do catch six of my top nine projected finishers in the Big Ten, including the top three on the road. Only two of my projected bottom seven teams find the schedule.
Northwestern catches Rutgers and Penn State in good situational spots, and there will certainly be program buzz when Iowa comes to town as the Wildcats break in the newly renovated Ryan Field.
I have Northwestern as a comfortable favorite in four games this year, with four games priced within 3.5 points.
If the offense is more explosive and uses more dynamic play-calling, there's a chance the Wildcats win most of the coin-flip games. Having an effective defensive line would also help.
It's not hard to pencil in three losses on the road against the top three teams in league play, so NW will have to go 6-3 or better against everyone else to exceed the win total. I
think this team will be improved and should be fun to watch on the offensive end. I lean over the win total, and I think NW has a great chance to make a bowl game this year.
Pick: Northwestern Over 5.5 Wins (Lean)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Win Total: 9.5 (-158o / +128u)
The 2025 season has to be considered a success for Ohio State. The Buckeyes defended their 2024 National Championship run with a 12-0 regular season with a dominant defense that overperformed expectations.
Ohio State had to replace a ton of departing talent from the national title team and ended up being the best defense in the nation in terms of preventing explosive plays. In fact, the Buckeyes allowed more than 16 points just once.
The defense once again needs to reload, and the offense has quite a bit of returning production from last year.
Heas coach Ryan Day has navigated the storms during his tenure at Ohio State, but he has sustained program momentum and should have a successful 2026 season.
Quarterback Julian Sayin returns after throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 passing touchdowns. He showed increasing comfort levels in the pocket as the season progressed and improved as a passer throughout the year.
Leading rusher Bo Jackson returns as well, along with Isaiah West, while the talented Ja'Kobi Jackson also portals in from Florida.
The electric Jeremiah Smith returns at wide receiver, and there's some nice incoming talent via organic recruiting and the transfer portal.
The tight end room will require young guys to step up, but incoming tight ends Mason Williams (Ohio) and Hunter Welcing (Northwestern) figure to contribute immediately.
The offensive line should only get better from last season, so I expect the rushing numbers to increase and the sacks allowed to decrease.
The defensive line sees a pair of Alabama transfers come in, along with John Walker from UCF. These players should fit right in with the returning talent along the D-line.
The two most productive linebackers depart, as do three starters in the secondary. The Buckeyes found a way to reload after losing talent last season, and if they duplicate that success in the back seven, opponents will have extreme difficulty moving the ball through the air.
The schedule will allow Ohio State the opportunity to start 3-0, although a road trip to Texas will test this bunch early.
The Buckeyes have drawn seven of my projected top nine finishers in Big Ten play while avoiding the bottom four. All four conference road trips will be challenges, as will a home date with Oregon.
Ohio State is very talented and remains a force in the Big Ten. I'm not quite ready to say we've experienced a changing of the guard because the Buckeyes still have to be considered a very serious threat to win this league.
I lean over the win total, as I project 10.46 wins. Ohio State hasn't lost three regular-season games in a single season in 15 years, and I'm not sure we'll see that this year either.
Pick: Ohio State Over 9.5 Wins (Strong Lean)
Oregon Ducks
Win Total: 10.5 (+110o / -134u)
Dan Lanning is firmly entrenched after another successful season in Eugene. The Ducks went 11-1 during the regular season and won a pair of College Football Playoff games before falling in the national semifinals.
The offense was excellent situationally, took care of the football relatively well and cashed in when in the red zone. The defense was also very good situationally and really flexed against Texas Tech in the CFP.
The challenge now will be replacing both the offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, where Oregon promoted from within.
Quarterback Dante Moore took strides as a passer while displaying enough mobility to not get handcuffed in the pocket. Moore threw for 3,550 yards with 30 touchdown passes last season and should have another explosive season in 2026.
Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. are back at running back, a position the Ducks always find themselves loaded at, although the departure of Noah Whittington is noteworthy.
Dakorien Moore is back at receiver, and having him at full strength will give this passing offense some explosiveness. Iverson Hooks is a great addition at receiver from UAB, so Oregon will have weapons on the outside.
The tight end room was hit very hard, and the Ducks are going to need to find some talent to replace Kenyon Sadiq's receiving production.
The offensive line does see some departures, as half the two-deep vacates, but there was some depth. While inexperienced, the line should hold up just fine.
Defensively, Oregon should be strong once again.
The front returns nearly entirely intact, as the top four along the defensive line return and D'antre Robinson comes in from UNC.
Six of the top seven linebackers return from a unit that helped provide outstanding numbers against the run and pass.
Two starters in the secondary depart, but five of the top eight are back, and there are four P4 transfers who should fit in nicely. I would expect the pass defense numbers to be strong once again.
The schedule is manageable both in the nonconference and in Big Ten play. Oregon will, in all likelihood, be 3-0 heading to USC, where it will be a touchdown favorite on the road.
I have the Ducks favored by three touchdowns or more seven times this season and as double-digit favorites 10 times.
The road slate is challenging and will test this group, and the close to the season is forgiving after a late-season trip to the Horseshoe to take on Ohio State.
Realistically, there are only about three games Oregon should be seriously threatened in, and with a defense that could be even stronger this season, I think there is a real chance the Ducks can win the Big Ten.
This bunch is a bona fide national title contender, and I lean over the win total. I also feel a play on Oregon to win the conference has some value at 3-1.
Pick: Oregon Over 10.5 Wins (Lean) · Oregon to Win the Big Ten (+300)
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Penn State
Win Total: 8.5 (-148o / +120u)
Penn State was well on its way last season after starting 3-0 with decisive victories against overmatched Nevada, FIU and Villanova teams.
After the bye week, the Nittany Lions lost a double overtime thriller to Oregon before struggling on the road at UCLA. A gut-wrenching home loss to Northwestern triggered the stunning departure of James Franklin, while three more losses ensued.
Penn State rebounded nicely and won its last three games, followed by a bowl game victory over Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl.
The Nittany Lions hired Matt Campbell away from Iowa State, and the former Cyclone coach took plenty of talent with him from Ames.
Rocco Becht portals in at quarterback after throwing for 2,584 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. The three-year starter also sees running back Carson Hansen join him in Happy Valley, along with numerous receivers and tight ends.
The offensive line is a complete rebuild, but many Iowa State players came with Campbell to Penn State, along with former Texas State center Brock Riker.
The Iowa State offense was much less explosive last year, and Penn State also struggled with explosiveness, specifically after Drew Allar went down with an injury. This will likely look a lot like Iowa State did last season.
The defense is nearly a complete rebuild, as 10 of the top 12 along the defensive line depart, and six transfers from the P4 come in.
Linebackers Tony Rojas and Alex Tatsch return as holdovers from last season, and three Iowa State linebackers also portal in.
The secondary sees three of the top 10 contributors from last season return while adding in several Iowa State players, along with Ibn McDaniels from Syracuse and Omarion Davis from Boston College.
This win total came out at 9.5, which I felt was too high. To expect a 10-win season with all of the roster turmoil was too much to ask for, so I bet under 9.5.
The win total has since moved to 8.5, which I feel is more appropriate. Penn State opens with three nonconference games it will be a three-touchdown favorite in, with Wisconsin coming to town in the conference opener.
Penn State hits the road to Northwestern before taking on USC at home as part of a tough stretch. Road trips at Michigan and at Washington will be tough, as will a home date with Minnesota.
Penn State will likely rebound quickly from a tough season this year. The Nittany Lions are equipped offensively to have much more potency if all goes well.
However, I'm still not convinced this group is going to win 10 games, but 8-9 wins isn't out of the question. Campbell has a knack for playing in close, contested games, so I expect plenty of dogfights this season in Happy Valley.
With the win total having dipped from 9.5 to 8.5, the value is likely gone here.
Pick: Penn State Under 9.5 Wins (Official Play · Pass at 8.5)
Purdue Boilermakers
Win Total: 3.5 (+124o / -152u)
Barry Odom endured quite a challenging season in Year 1 in West Lafayette. After a 2-0 start, the schedule stiffened, and Purdue showed it wasn't ready to compete week in and week out.
The offense committed too many turnovers, and the defense surrendered 400 or more yards in eight of the final 10 games, all losses.
Odom hired a new defensive coordinator and offensive line coach to try to shore up the trenches, where Purdue struggled badly last year.
Quarterback Ryan Browne returns after throwing for 2,153 yards and nine passing touchdowns last year. I'm still unsure if he's the guy who can help Purdue ascend back into Big Ten relevance, so we'll see if he improves on last year's play.
Transfers from Minnesota and Texas look to replace the production lost by longtime running back Devin Mockobee. Antonio Harris returns and should take some of that workload over.
Most of the receiving production is gone, so Purdue will rely on young receivers brought up through the system, along with transfers from Iowa State, FAU and Syracuse.
Purdue doesn't utilize its tight ends very prominently in the passing game, but Kylan Fox did transfer in from UCF and could contribute here.
There's some decent returning production along the offensive line, and five P4 transfers enter with hopes of elevating the performance of this unit.
CJ Nunnally IV is a big loss on the defensive line, along with two other starters who transferred out. The second platoon is fairly well intact.
Some decent P4 transfers could make an impact, and the linebacker room returns a good majority of its production. Elo Modozie and Jojo Hayden transfer in and should improve the performance of this group right away.
The secondary gave up way too many explosive plays last season, including 21 of 40 yards or more. Twelve players took significant snaps in an attempt to try to unlock a successful combination, with two of the starters returning in 2026.
There are five transfers who should help this unit improve year over year.
I truly believe Purdue will get better under Odom and that this rebuild will work. I expect the Boilers to be much more competitive this season.
The nonconference portion of the schedule will allow Purdue a chance to notch a couple of wins, although it will be a 3-4 touchdown underdog hosting Notre Dame.
The Boilers draw only one of the top five projected finishers in the Big Ten, and that will come in the season finale against rival Indiana.
Purdue is a team whose power rating could elevate if we clearly see the product on the field improve. Right now, I only have the Boilermakers favored once or twice this year, with seven games as double-digit underdogs.
I could see Purdue pulling an upset or two at home against Minnesota, Maryland or Wake Forest, and 3-4 wins seems likely. I would lean over the win total, but I don't feel strongly about it until we see significant on-field improvement.
Pick: Purdue Over 3.5 Wins (Lean)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Win Total: 4.5 (-144o / +118u)
The Rutgers defense was shockingly bad last season. The front was weak against the run, and it generated virtually no pass rush.
The Scarlet Knights registered 11 sacks all season while surrendering 6.8 yards per carry on the ground. They absolutely could not get stops when they needed them most.
The whole unit looked so anti-Greg Schiano, especially after the long-tenured head coach had made a point to instill toughness and attitude on the defensive side.
The top eight depart along the defensive line, but getting some fresh blood in the trenches probably isn't a bad thing.
Linebacker looks to be shored up with some decent returning talent, along with Malachi Davis portalling in from Toledo. He should make an impact right away.
The secondary struggled last season, in part due to a lack of an effective pass rush, and will need to be completely rebuilt.
Experienced transfers should help soften the blow of the losses, but this is a unit that may struggle in Big Ten play once again. In fact, Rutgers was among the worst teams at the FBS level in preventing explosive plays.
The defense has a long way to go, and Schiano made moves within his coaching staff to try to provoke improvement on that side of the ball.
The offense did some nice things last year after finally developing a passing game. The issue will be replacing quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, several contributing receivers and the departures along the offensive line.
There's a QB battle taking place with AJ Surace and Dylan Lonergan, who transferred in from Boston College.
The running back room looks pretty good, but receiving talent needs to emerge in fall camp.
Rutgers faces four of my top six projected finishers in Big Ten play this season while also facing three emerging teams in Northwestern, Maryland and Wisconsin, all on the road.
There's a chance that Rutgers steps up and wins a game it shouldn't, but it could be an underdog in every conference game, so it might not be enough to reach bowl eligibility in 2026.
I'm not confident that Rutgers is going to be very good this season, and we've seen the win total drop in the market from 5.5 down to 4.5 at most shops.
I think 4-5 wins seems appropriate for this group this season, but if you shop around, there's an under 5.5, I'd play.
Pick: Rutgers Under 5.5 Wins (-140 · Official Play)
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UCLA Bruins
Win Total: 6.5 (+102o / -124u)
The DeShaun Foster era at UCLA was doomed almost before it ever got started, bottoming out last season with an embarrassing home loss at home against New Mexico.
Tim Skipper was promoted to head coach on an interim basis, and the Bruins showed quite a bit of fight despite finishing just 4-8.
Bob Chesney enters after very successful stints at Holy Cross and James Madison, and he has been making some positive splashes already this offseason.
Nico Iamaleava returns at quarterback and should have a much more successful season, powered by a competent offensive staff and playmakers who have portalled in.
Wayne Knight comes over from JMU, where he ran for 1,368 yards and nine touchdowns last season. He figures to split carries with Jaivian Thomas.
Five talented wide receivers join, so the Bruins' passing game should be much more potent this season.
The offensive line returns some decent talent, and seven transfers with experience will add strength and depth.
The defensive line was a liability last season, as UCLA registered just 10 sacks and 40 tackles for loss as a team, and every contributor in the two-deep is gone.
Three JMU contributors come over with Chesney, and three other P4 transfers should transform this unit into a strength in 2026.
The linebacker room sees the top two depart from last season, but there's a core nucleus of contributors who played meaningful snaps last year. This unit is another one that sees several talented portal additions.
The secondary has three or four talented players who return from last season, along with plenty of reserve P4 talent that should factor into the rotation immediately.
The roster has been significantly upgraded, and UCLA will have a great opportunity to go 3-0 in the nonconference portion of the schedule. A road game at Cal in the opener will be a hugely insightful data point for how improved this team is.
The schedule is also broken up with an early bye week and a timely late-season nonconference game against Nevada in which UCLA will be heavily favored.
The Bruins play the third-easiest schedule in the Big Ten, per my metrics. UCLA draws just one of the top four projected finishers in the Big Ten while drawing five of the projected bottom eight. Four of the road games have to be considered winnable, as are most of the conference games that UCLA will host.
Chesney has done an excellent job elevating or maintaining program success in his prior stops and should get this ship pointed in the right direction rather quickly.
UCLA could start anywhere from 2-2 to 4-0 before a road trip to Oregon. The Bruins also catch Michigan in a major sandwich spot late in the year.
I have UCLA favored in 4-5 games this season with another three instances where it's a short 'dog. I trust the staff, and the talent upgrade is evident.
I lean over the win total of 5.5 and wouldn't be surprised if UCLA locks up bowl eligibility earlier in the season than expected.
Pick: UCLA Over 5.5 Wins (Strong Lean)
USC Trojans
Win Total: 8.5 (+112o / -138u)
Despite the Alamo Bowl loss to TCU, the 9-4 season has to be considered a success for USC. The Trojans will now seek to ascend to the top tier of the Big Ten in Year 5 of the Lincoln Riley era.
Expectations are high with quarterback Jayden Maiava returning with a loaded backfield and an experienced offensive line that played very well in 2025.
The main task will be replacing a receiving corps that loses two dynamic playmakers and seven of the top nine pass-catchers from a season ago.
Tanook Hines returns after a successful freshman season, and Terrell Anderson portals in from NC State. USC routinely recruits and develops wide receivers, so it should have plenty of bench strength coming into 2026.
The defense played much better last year than in prior seasons while holding eight opponents to 21 points or fewer.
The secondary performed better at home than on the road, and while the front seven did register 31 sacks and 73 tackles for loss, the stop unit wasn't strong enough while competing against the elite teams on its schedule. This unit will have to come together quickly, especially with both starting safeties gone.
Eight front-seven contributors from last year's two-deep return, and some solid Big Ten talent portals in from Washington, Penn State and Michigan State. I expect this group to be strong once again up front.
USC will be a heavy favorite in all three of its nonconference matchups and should be undefeated heading into its first conference game, a cross-country road trip at Rutgers.
The Trojans do host Oregon, but the spot is a bit rough after the cross-country trip, while Oregon will be coming off a poor FCS opponent.
After hosting Washington, the Trojans will face back-to-back road games against Penn State and Wisconsin with a bye week sandwiched in between.
The tough stretch continues with Ohio State and Indiana with a second bye week in between and two winnable games against Maryland and at UCLA to close.
I have USC favored in eight games this season, but there are four road trips east of the Mountain Time Zone, and USC traditionally hasn't played well on the road under Riley.
If the receiver group develops, USC will have the offense to compete with the elite teams in the Big Ten. With Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana on the schedule, the Trojans will have opportunities to prove they belong in the conversation for contention.
The trajectory of the season will hinge on USC elevating its performance on the road and in big games against elite competition in Big Ten play.
I don't see a ton of value on the regular-season win total at the time, but shop around. If you like the over, you can find a price as high as +115.
Pick: Pass
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Washington Huskies
Win Total: 7.5 (-152o / +124u)
I thought Washington had a very successful season in 2025 despite losing to Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon in fairly non-competitive fashion.
While the Huskies weren't ready to ascend to the top of the Big Ten, we saw some good things from this team. This unit can be fairly competitive in 2026.
Demond Williams returns at quarterback for Year 3 after throwing for 3,057 yards and 25 passing touchdowns. The offense has the potential to be as explosive as we saw at times last season, with several key pieces in the skill-position rooms returning.
Kennesaw State transfer Christian Moss is a great receiver grab in the portal, and the tight end room looks athletic and ready to go.
Washington returns a couple of pieces from an offensive line that struggled at times with pressure, but if it cleans up the sacks and negative rushing plays, the offensive potency will increase significantly.
The defensive line will have to overperform this season after losing numerous contributors that it primarily replaced with FCS and G5 talent.
The linebacker room appears shored up, but Washington has to replace three players in the secondary who overperformed last season, so a lot's going to be expected out of last year's backups.
Head coach Jedd Fisch has done an excellent job calming the waters after the departure of Kalen DeBoer, and there's some solid continuity with the coaching staff.
Washington does play four of the top six projected finishers in Big Ten play while drawing just two of the bottom seven. The Huskies will face both Purdue and Michigan State on the road as well.
After an expected 3-0 start in nonconference play, the schedule stiffens up. I do have Washington projected as a favorite in nine games this season, but trips to USC, Nebraska and Oregon will not be easy, nor will home dates with Iowa and Indiana.
I project eight wins for this bunch, as five Big Ten road games will test this team. I don't see any value in the win total at the current number, but I slightly lean over at 7.5.
I think this will be a fun team with an explosive offense, but seven tough league games and a rough road slate have me off of it. There's much more value out there in the win total market than betting Washington at the current price.
Pick: Pass
Wisconsin Badgers
Win Total: 6.5 (-130o / +106u)
We all saw the disaster that played out for Wisconsin offensively last season. The Badgers failed to score 14 points or more in all but one conference game and were held to 17 points or fewer on 10 occasions.
The schedule was brutal, and the quarterback play was such a disaster.
Wisconsin simply didn't have a capable passer under center. Opposing defenses could consistently put eight men in the box and force the Badgers into tough situations that they were unable to throw out of.
The run game suffered, and Wisconsin became far and away the least explosive offense in the entire country.
I fully expect that to change this year in a big way with the electric Colton Joseph transferring in from Old Dominion.
CuJo exploded out of the Sun Belt, throwing for 2,624 yards and 21 touchdowns through the air while adding 1,007 rushing yards and another 13 touchdowns on the ground.
Iowa State's Abu Sama and USC's Bryan Jackson II transfer in and should split carries at running back, joining a room full of young talent.
Several receivers come in to add explosiveness as well, highlighted by Jaylon Domingeaux, who was awesome at FCS Southeast Louisiana.
Big bodies were added to the offensive line from the SEC and the Big 12, so I expect the rushing numbers to improve drastically.
The defensive front seven was stout last season, but more pressure needs to be created from the defensive line. In fact, not a single player recorded more than two sacks last season.
I like the transfer adds at both linebacker and off the edge, and I'd expect the Wisconsin defense to be a stiff challenge for opponents once again.
The secondary didn't play all that badly, given the circumstances. Wisconsin gave up 19 passing touchdowns and some yards through the air, but this unit was put in so many bad situations by the offense that it gassed the defense late in the second half.
This bunch will be above average in the Big Ten this season.
The schedule isn't all that bad, given the power and talent in the Big Ten. Wisconsin faces six of the projected bottom seven finishers in conference play while avoiding Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.
We'll find out a lot about this group in the opener against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field. Wisconsin should be 2-1 before a trip to Happy Valley, and every conference home game will give the Badgers a chance to put a notch in the win column.
The road schedule is manageable, with the toughest tests coming against teams with significant roster overhaul (Side note: If this group is catching 14 or more against Iowa or Penn State, I will likely be playing Wisconsin in my week-to-week wagering).
I lean over on the win total. This is one I'm strongly considering adding to my win total portfolio.
Pick: Wisconsin Over 6.5 Wins (Lean)
