This installment of our regular-season win total spring preview series wraps up the Power 4 conferences as we explore the SEC.
There are several very competitive teams, and the conference moves to a nine-game league schedule this year. With the way the schedule falls, each team gets just one bye week, so this league is going to be extremely competitive week-to-week.
The strength of schedule, scheduling spots and nonconference opponents will be important to watch while assessing regular-season win plays, perhaps more than in any other league.
I really appreciate all of you, our valued readers, for digesting this offseason content with us, and we look forward to continued coverage of regular-season win totals as we venture into the Group of 6 conferences next.
With that said, let's dive into my 2026 SEC picks and my college football win totals for the upcoming season.
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Welcome to our SEC win totals preview. To navigate directly to a specific team section, simply click on a logo above.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Win Total: 8.5 (-118o / -104u)
Alabama rebounded nicely from a stunning and disappointing season-opening loss at Florida State and nearly ran the table the rest of the regular season, with just a two-point loss at home to Oklahoma — a loss it would avenge in the playoff.
Ultimately, Bama would fall to eventual national champion Indiana in a blowout loss, but there were concerning signals all season that showed this version of the Tide wasn't a national contender.
Alabama couldn't run the ball effectively for most of the season. The team's leading rusher, Jam Miller, racked up just 504 yards while averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
He departs, as does quarterback Ty Simpson. The Tide are undecided as to who will start at QB heading into 2026. Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are locked in a battle that figures to be decided deep into fall camp, and both are relatively inexperienced.
Ryan Williams returns at receiver and figures to draw plenty of targets and attention from opposing defenses.
Noah Rogers transfers in from NC State, as well. The Tide are generally loaded at the position, but there isn't much else to get excited about in the skill-position rooms regarding portal acquisitions.
The majority of the two-deep is gone along the offensive line, and a combination of P4 transfer talent and young guys brought up in the system will have to elevate the line's performance for Bama to get back to national prominence.
Defensively, the Tide were stronger than anticipated, specifically in the front seven. This group anchored a defense that registered 33 sacks and 86 tackles for loss.
As is so often the case, the front loses a ton of production along the defensive line and at linebacker, with just three of the top 12 returning for 2026.
Three P4 transfers who contributed at Oregon, USC and Mississippi State will fill the void on the D-line, and Caleb Woodson and Desmond Umeozulu figure to log snaps at linebacker.
Bama needs more "sack guys" to emerge because this team flourished when it could get to the opposing quarterback.
Most of the secondary returns, including four starters who played more than 50% of the snaps for defensive coordinator Kane Wommack last year.
The SEC has migrated to a nine-game schedule this season, which will undoubtedly have an effect on most, if not all, of its participants this season.
Alabama will be a two-touchdown or greater favorite in every nonconference game and should go 3-0.
Five conference road games will challenge this group, including an early-season test at Kentucky. The Tide catch Texas A&M at the wrong time, as the Aggies will host an FCS opponent prior to that and will likely sneak in some early Bama prep during that week.
I do worry about this team settling in with a new quarterback, a rebuilt offensive line and a mostly new skill group. The defense has holes, but Kalen DeBoer retained both Wommack and Chuck Morrell, who coaches linebackers and has been with DeBoer for some time.
The staff has continuity and can get the best out of this group. Alabama hasn't lost four regular season games since 2007, and I'm not sure we'll see the drop-off this season. Without seeing much value, I'm passing on the current number.
Pick: Pass
Arkansas Razorbacks
Win Total: 4.5 (+140o / -172u)
Despite the 2-10 record in 2025, Arkansas was actually quite competitive week in and week out.
The Hogs experienced seven one-score losses, along with a two-touchdown loss at the end of the season against Missouri in a game Arkansas actually had a chance to win.
This bunch was never going to compete with Notre Dame, but head coach Sam Pittman was let go after the blowout, leaving Bobby Petrino to finish out the season.
Arkansas settled on Ryan Silverfield this offseason. Despite compiling a 50-25 overall record during his tenure at Memphis, Silverfield's teams never played for a conference title while regularly falling short against the better teams in the American.
Establishing a starting quarterback is going to be critical for Arkansas as it gets into fall camp. QB1 candidates KJ Jackson and AJ Hill have each shown flashes of brilliance in limited game action.
At running back, Sutton Smith is a nice talent who portals in from Memphis. He and Braylen Russell will provide a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield, along with Jasper Parker, who arrives from Michigan.
Several talented G5 receivers transferred in, and if they're reliable, sure-handed receivers emerge and timing develops, this offense could be relatively fun to watch this season.
The Hogs have some "hogs" upfront, as well. The offensive line could be decent, but the ceiling appears limited with four G5 transfers coming in. The left side of the line also needs to get shored up quickly.
The defense might not be as fun to watch this year, as Arkansas will be going through a complete rebuild at all three levels.
Eighteen players saw time in the secondary last season, and 16 of them are gone. Talented players from Tulane, Colorado, Cincinnati and Maryland portal in to help improve the numbers. If this unit gels together, the pass defense might be OK.
Most of the production in the front seven departs, but Bradley Shaw and Wyatt Simmons are back after playing a bit at linebacker last season.
Ben Bogle and Ja'Quavion Smith portal in and should contribute at LB, but 10 of the top 13 are gone along a defensive line that struggled to stop the run while failing to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
With six P4-level transfers that portal in, there's reason for optimism when it comes to thinking the defensive line could improve and become more of a force.
The schedule is brutal, as the SEC migrates to a nine-game schedule and Arkansas draws my toughest SEC slate in 2026.
WPS plays six of my projected top nine finishers in the SEC while missing Kentucky and Mississippi State. A nonconference road game at Utah will likely find Arkansas as a double-digit underdog. The Hogs might be favored in only three games all season.
Silverfield has his work cut out for him, and figuring out the quarterback situation and identifying transfer talent has to be a priority.
Arkansas will always be up against it in the ultra-competitive SEC. It appears the Razorbacks are at a crossroads as the administration needs to decide if they're going to be a "football school" or not.
The required commitment to succeed in the SEC is overwhelming and intense, and I'm just not sure if the Hogs are prepared to go all in. I lean under the win total.
Pick: Arkansas Under 4.5 Wins (Lean)
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Auburn Tigers
Win Total: 6.5 (-110o / -110u)
Auburn experienced another disappointing season on the gridiron despite a 3-0 start in 2025.
An impressive road win at Baylor was followed up by comfortable defeats of Ball State and South Alabama. At that point, fans could start to see that this team was formidable in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
You could even make the case that the defense was quite strong, holding opponents to under 21 points per game and 2.86 yards per carry.
The Tigers' third-down and red-zone defense improved, and the pass defense allowed 300 or more yards just once after the opener.
However, Auburn couldn't get over the hump, and seven SEC losses by 10 points or fewer were ultimately enough for the dismissal of head coach Hugh Freeze.
Auburn hired Alex Golesh away from USF, and he brings with him seven assistant coaches and 13 players from Tampa to the Plains.
All three quarterbacks who took snaps for the Tigers depart, but in comes the electric Byrum Brown, who flourished with Golesh at USF.
Brown will have a loaded backfield, including Jeremiah Cobb, who led Auburn with 969 rushing yards last season, young talent Omar Mabson II and Nykahi Davenport, who ran for 611 yards and seven scores last year at USF. If that wasn't enough, explosive back Bryson Washington comes in from Baylor.
The top five receivers are gone, but all of the receiving talent from USF comes over, so I expect extreme continuity in the passing game immediately.
The offensive line was decimated by graduation and portal entries, but there are some talented transfers coming in from USF, Oregon State and Troy, so the line could be on par with last year's group.
One starter remains from each of the three levels of the defense, as D.J. Durkin will come back as defensive coordinator after serving as the interim head coach for a short time.
Some talented players transfer in along the defensive line as well, including Da'Shawn Womack, who played in all 15 games for Ole Miss last season. Cody Sigler and Saint Farrior were solid Sun Belt players, and Walter Mathis Jr. has SEC-level talent.
There's a little more stability in the linebacker room with four players who played in some capacity last season. The five-man secondary sees most of the second platoon return, along with Kaleb Harris, who started last year at safety.
The schedule is forgiving early, as Auburn will have an opportunity to start the season 2-0 in the nonconference. Drawing Florida and Vanderbilt at home right away in SEC play is much more favorable than most draws, and getting Tennessee off a game against Texas is a great situational opportunity.
Auburn has a three-game gauntlet of Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss immediately following the Tennessee game, which will test what the Tigers are made of.
Drawing Arkansas and Mississippi State, followed by FCS Samford, is a gift, with the Iron Bowl to close.
If the offense hits a home run and the defense can avoid a major backslide, I could see Auburn finally exceeding its regular-season win total for the first time since 2019. I lean over, but not enough to fire away.
Pick: Auburn Over 6.5 Wins (Lean)
Florida Gators
Win Total: 7.5 (+114o / -140u)
The Billy Napier era never produced effective results on the field, and the lack of consistency ultimately did him in.
Jon Sumrall comes over after successful stints at both Tulane and Troy, and he hit the ground running in Gainesville by assembling a great staff and winning key portal recruiting battles.
Buster Faulkner comes over from Georgia Tech to run the offense, and Brad White will be the defensive coordinator after holding the same position at Kentucky.
DJ Lagway showed flashes of brilliance while in Gainesville but was too careless with the football and often missed the easy throws.
He departs and will play quarterback at Baylor in 2026.
Aaron Philo comes in after serving as the backup at Georgia Tech last season, but he should have deep familiarity with Faulkner's offensive system.
Leading rusher Jadan Baugh returns after rushing for 1,170 yards and eight touchdowns last season. A pair of talented backs in Evan Pryor and London Montgomery also transfer in from Cincinnati and East Carolina, respectively.
The Gators' top two receivers from 2025 return, and several talented transfers portal in from Auburn, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech.
Florida figures to use the tight end position in versatile ways to help in run blocking, and a pair of good ones in Luke Harpring (Georgia Tech) and Lacota Dippre (James Madison) portal in.
The offensive line sees a pair of starters return, and most of the second platoon comes back as well. A pair of Penn State transfers figure to factor into the rotation along with Harrison Moore, who comes over from Georgia Tech.
Defensively, Florida was decent against the run last year but wore down as the season played out. The Gators were above average in preventing explosive plays, and there's some talent returning in the front seven.
Four of the top eight return along the defensive line, and Emmanuel Oyebadejo should also log a ton of snaps this season.
The linebacker room is really well positioned with the top four returning and plenty of depth brought up in the program.
Three of the four starters in the secondary are gone, but the entire second lineup returns. Transfers from UCLA, Baylor and Kentucky will also help keep Florida's pass defense numbers strong.
The conference schedule draw is tough, with a brutal three-game stretch facing Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma. Florida draws four of my top six projected finishers in the SEC.
I don't have Florida favored by more than 4.5 points in any game outside of the first two. The Gators will have tough games week in and week out, but if they can somehow steal a game they shouldn't, the season could end up being quite successful.
The defense is in good shape, and while the offense will look different, Faulkner has a track record of success and can get the most out of the talented backfield, which will help keep them in games.
The Gators could be anywhere from 6-0 to 3-3 before a trip to Texas. A regular-season record anywhere from 8-4 to 6-6 wouldn't surprise me.
I'm passing on the win total at the current number, but if we see a flat 8 pop, I would likely play the under.
Pick: Pass
Georgia Bulldogs
Win Total: 9.5 (-176o / +142u)
Halfway through last season, people were asking if the Bulldogs were going to end up being a disappointment after lackluster wins over Marshall and Austin Peay.
A pair of close SEC contests against Tennessee and Alabama followed, with the latter being a home loss to the Tide. It just didn't look quite right.
The defense wasn't creating as much Havoc, and it wasn't as overwhelming as prior renditions.
After the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" against Florida, Georgia threw together a string of convincing performances on its way to winning the SEC title.
Head coach Kirby Smart has entrenched himself here in Athens, and anything short of a National Championship continues to be a disappointment.
With Gunner Stockton returning at quarterback and a cast of others competing for the backup job, the quarterback position looks shored up.
There's a handful back along the offensive line with talent and depth in the offensive trenches. With a loaded backfield, Georgia should be able to run the football consistently.
The major blow comes at receiver, as UGA loses four of its top five pass-catchers from a season ago. However, there's exquisite talent in the tight end room, and the versatility of that group makes for tough matchups.
The defense looks better, with most everyone returning along the defensive line and Amaris Williams portalling in from Auburn. There wasn't a ton of portal activity outside of him on the line or at linebacker, but five of the top six linebackers return.
I expect a strong front seven for the Dawgs in 2026.
Georgia needs a better pass coverage unit, though. This bunch still ranked top-15 in FBS in explosive plays allowed, giving up just 41 plays that went for at least 20 yards, but losing three starters means there's work to be done.
UGA plays my easiest SEC schedule this season, avoiding Texas, Texas A&M and LSU while catching six of the bottom eight projected finishers.
I have Georgia favored in all 12 games this season, nine times by double digits.
Back-to-back home bouts against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt will prepare the Bulldogs for a showdown with Alabama on the road in mid-October. The toughest schedule spot appears to be a road game at Ole Miss after playing rival Florida.
Georgia will be a three-touchdown favorite in every nonconference game this season, and this group is better than its two toughest projected opponents.
Georgia hasn't lost three games during the regular season in 10 years, and I don't think we'll see it happen this year.
I lean strongly toward the over at 9.5, but I'm waiting on a better price to potentially develop over the summer. This one should make my regular-season win total card.
Pick: Georgia Over 9.5 Wins (Lean)
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Kentucky Wildcats
Win Total: 4.5 (-144o / +118u)
The adjectives that come to mind when thinking back on the 2025 Kentucky season include words like "heartbreaking," "painful," and "oh so close."
Letting a 10-0 lead against Ole Miss slip away, significantly outplaying Texas and gaining nearly three times the yardage only to lose in OT, and fading terribly down the stretch after great wins over Auburn and Florida had to be so demoralizing for this fan base.
In comes Will Stein after a successful tenure as Oregon's offensive coordinator, and he has assembled a decent staff. Everyone is new except Anwar Stewart, who returns as the defensive line coach.
The quarterback position has some high upside, although Kenny Minchey is still unproven after playing sparingly at Notre Dame.
Before the Irish settled on CJ Carr, the two were neck-and-neck in a quarterback competition. Stein has a proven track record of maximizing the talent output at the quarterback position, so the potential is there.
There's also promise at running back after CJ Baxter transferred in from Texas. He could shine in this spot.
The returning receiver talent is also decent, and Shane Carr proved to be a solid receiver at FCS Southern Utah last season. Joining Carr via the portal are Nic Anderson (LSU) and Xavier Daisy (UAB). Both should catch 30 or more passes this year.
The offensive line is a full rebuild with players coming in from Baylor, Tennessee, Alabama, Ohio State and UTEP. If this group can become a cohesive unit, the offense could experience a much-needed boost.
The defense was inconsistent, but when the Wildcats got a little pressure, they really caused problems. The pass defense numbers looked really good while also ranking 31st nationally in yards per carry allowed.
About half the production in the front seven comes back, but Gardner-Webb transfer Antonio "Tone" O'Berry comes in and should work into the rotation. A pair of South Alabama transfers join him and Ahmad Breaux, who portals in from LSU.
The Wildcats need to develop some linebacker depth, as five of the top seven depart.
The secondary is a work in progress with the majority of key contributors leaving. However, five players portal in from the P4 level, so the unit could end up being serviceable.
Kentucky should be every bit as good — or better — than last year's group, and the offense could really take off. While I only have the Cats favored in two nonconference games, an early-season home game against Alabama is a great spot to set the tone.
I do have the Wildcats as 8.5-point or greater 'dogs in every road game, but we should see single-digit spreads in every conference home game.
The greater likelihood is that Kentucky struggles with a new staff and first-time head coach, but if the offense takes a couple of steps and we see better situational execution, these guys could be a tough out.
I project the Wildcats at 4.76 wins and don't see a ton of value on the win total. However, I might be interested in this team as a home 'dog this year.
Pick: Pass
LSU Tigers
Win Total: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
LSU made quite the splash this offseason in hiring Lane Kiffin away from Ole Miss. Kiffin brings with him nine coaches from his Rebel staff, including offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr., while retaining defensive coordinator Blake Baker.
Now, the key will be getting the newly constructed roster to gel together quickly because three of the first four games will test this team immediately.
Three quarterbacks sit on the roster, but Sam Leavitt will be the guy here after transferring in from Arizona State.
The Tigers also boast a fairly loaded backfield and should hand the ball to backs with fresh legs in the fourth quarter a lot this season.
Four capable backs find themselves on the roster, including last year's top two in Caden Durham and Harlem Berry, while Dilin Jones (Wisconsin) and Rod Gainey (Charlotte) transfer in to work into the rotation.
The receiver room is a clean sweep, as everyone departs from 2025. However, LSU has some great transfer talent coming in from Hawaii, Kansas State, Old Dominion, Florida and Ole Miss.
The tight end room sees Malachi Thomas transfer in from Pitt, and several other players should have the opportunity to create mismatches in 2026.
Seven P4 transfers come in along the offensive line. LSU has 20 players listed as offensive linemen on their roster.
The defensive line is a complete reset with transfers from Tennessee, Ole Miss, Clemson and Auburn vying to contribute immediately in the trenches. LSU struggled to get pressure and rack up negative plays at times, but the front was strong against the run.
The linebacker group should be strong despite the loss of its top two players, as the other top six return.
The secondary will likely be a strength again with transfers from Ohio State and Boise State coming in to shore up the lost production from A.J. Haulcy and Mansoor Delane, who left for the NFL.
With the defense being such a strength, LSU surrendered 24 points or more just three times all season. If this unit plays as well as it did at times last year, it will have an opportunity to win a lot of games.
I project the Tigers to be favored in nine games this season while projecting them as underdogs of no greater than five points in any game. They have a fair amount of coaching continuity with much of the staff coaching together at other stops.
Kiffin should get this offense cranking quickly, and I expect a significant jump in explosiveness after LSU ranked just 105th in that area last season.
The Tigers' third-down offense, red-zone offense and play-calling should all improve on the offensive side, and the D has some talent coming back.
I don't see a ton of value on the win total, as I project 7.9 wins, but I have seven games projected within a touchdown. If Kiffin develops more toughness on the defensive edge, the Bayou Bengals could cause problems.
The road schedule is manageable, with LSU's toughest road game coming in the third week of the season. A 9-3 season wouldn't shock me, but it's not something I want to bet.
Still, we should have an idea of what this team is capable of after Week 3, at which point we can revisit the win totals/futures market.
Pick: Pass
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Win Total: 4.5 (-120o / -102u)
Jeff Lebby had this Bulldogs bunch playing much more competitive football in 2025, as Mississippi State finished 5-7 and played in a bowl game despite losing seven of its eight games down the stretch.
Single-digit losses to Tennessee, Florida and Texas, along with a home upset over Arizona State, signalled that on-field progress was being made.
MSU faded down the stretch, though, getting blown out in each of its last three games, but the team played hard, and the pieces to remain competitive are there.
Kamario Taylor returns at quarterback after splitting time last season, and he appears to be the guy in line to start after the second- and third-string QBs departed. AJ Swann and Jaden Rashada were brought in to push for the backup role.
Running back Fluff Bothwell can take on more of the workload in the ground game and should log 200-plus touches and 1,000 yards this season.
Three of the top four receivers are back, but the loss is a big one, as Brenen Thompson departed for the NFL after leading the team in receiving yards and touchdowns.
The offensive line will undergo a full reset. Nine of the 10 on the two-deep are gone, and eight transfers will have to come together quickly to make it work.
Last year, the Bulldogs were eaten up in the trenches in SEC play, giving up 45 sacks and 98 tackles for loss, so this position group is the one to watch on offense.
Defensively, MSU created very little pressure. The team sack leader posted just 2.5, and there were just two games where the Bulldogs registered three or more sacks.
The run defense clearly wore down as the season progressed, but new defensive coordinator Zach Arnett is going to ratchet up the pressure. Transfers from Florida State, USC and Texas A&M could really help increase the Havoc numbers from this unit.
Five linebackers with experience return, and they could be more effective in supporting run defense.
The secondary is led by Isaac Smith, who did well in pass coverage while registering 64 tackles. He could be found all over the field. The rest of this group will rely on transfers, so it'll take time for the pass defense to get where it needs to be.
The SEC schedule is brutal. In fact, I have it rated as the second-toughest this year.
Four conference road games will almost assuredly find MSU as a double-digit underdog, and an early-season road trip to Minnesota won't be a picnic either.
Winable games include Missouri, Vanderbilt and Auburn at home, but I have concerns about the front seven stopping the run.
Plus, we never really got the chance to see Taylor thrive as the main guy at quarterback. In Mississippi State's five wins, he threw a combined eight passes. When he was throwing the ball a ton, the Bulldogs weren't winning.
Taylor's dual-threat playmaking will be an issue in the league, but games are won and lost in the trenches, and MSU is a mystery on both sides.
I have the Bulldogs as underdogs of 8.5 points or more six times this season while being favored in only 2-3 games.
DraftKings has a win total of under 5.5 juiced at -180, so we're paying about 70 cents for a full win. At that number, they're likely going to have to win four games as underdogs for this wager to lose. I like the under.
Pick: Mississippi State Under 5.5 Wins (-180 at DraftKings · Official Play)
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Missouri Tigers
Win Total: 6.5 (-128o / +104u)
Eli Drinkwitz has put together three consecutive solid seasons in Columbia while elevating the talent level top to bottom significantly.
Last year was the first time in my 20 years of doing this that I had ever seen a team open with six straight home games to start a season, and Missouri started 5-1.
The defense carried the team, led by a front seven that registered 36 sacks and 89 tackles for loss. Missouri's defense allowed a conversion rate of just 36% on third downs, and the red-zone defense played brilliantly in the Tigers' eight victories.
The rushing attack relied heavily on Ahmad Hardy, who ran for 1,649 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns, and he returns in 2026.
Jamal Roberts also returns after running for 753 yards and a half-dozen scores, while Xai'Shaun Edwards transfers in from Houston Christian, where he ran for over 1,000 yards at the FCS level last season.
The offensive line has 118 career starts returning, and three P4 starters enter to fill the void left by departures from last year's much-improved bunch.
Several P4 transfers enter at receiver to help replace lost production, as five of the top six receivers from last year are gone.
The quarterback position is likely Austin Simmons' job to lose. Simmons enters after starting last year as QB1 at Ole Miss before an injury caused him to lose the position battle. Nick Evers also transfers in from UConn.
The major questions will be on the defensive side, as Missouri has to replace 13 of its top 15 tacklers from a season ago.
The top four along the defensive line are gone. While transfers from Florida State, Miami and Baylor are likely to find their way into the two-deep, it appears Missouri will rely heavily on Darris Smith, Marquis Gracial and Langden Kitchen to take on expanded roles.
Three of the top four linebackers are gone, but Nicholas Rodriguez returns after becoming a force to be reckoned with last season. Having him anchor the LB room will help, but more talented players have to emerge if Missouri is going to maintain its excellent run defense from last season.
The secondary loses six of its top seven, so once again, this is a unit that's going to be transfer-heavy. It's going to take some time with six P4-level players entering the system.
The schedule is much tougher this year with road trips to Ole Miss and Georgia. The Tigers face five of my top six projected finishers in SEC play. A road trip to Kansas also won't be a picnic, although I project Missouri as a 5.5-point favorite there.
The defense has holes at all three levels, and there are new systems being implemented by new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey on that side of the ball.
I expect Missouri to be favored in 7-8 games this year with several coin-flip scenarios.
The Tigers catch Ole Miss in a look-ahead spot and actually get Georgia in a pretty good spot as well. If the defense can hang in there and improve week to week, Missouri could match last year's eight wins.
The more likely scenario is that the defense is nowhere near as tenacious, opponents key in on the ground attack, and Missouri is forced to throw the ball more, which isn't something it wants to do.
I lean over on the low win total of 6.5, but it's not enough of an advantage for me to play given the loss of defensive talent and increase in schedule difficulty. I'm passing on the win total.
Pick: Pass
Oklahoma Sooners
Win Total: 7.5 (-114o / -106u)
Oklahoma made so many strides on both sides of the ball in 2025, but the defensive front proved to be the catalyst for OU's 10-win season.
The Sooners ranked second nationally in tackles for loss and third in sacks, all while being the second-best run-stopping defense. The group was nasty up front, and opponents struggled all season to come up with long drives and score points.
Boomer allowed a conversion rate of just 28% on third downs while giving up just 13 red-zone touchdowns all season.
Head coach Brent Venables will seek to replicate the success of this group, while the offense should take strides with a fully healthy John Mateer at quarterback in the second year of offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle's system.
Mateer looked the part at times last season as his dual-threat play dazzled weekly, but there were also signs that he wasn't completely comfortable at times. He needs to take a stride if OU is going to repeat as a playoff participant in 2026.
Both stud running backs, Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson, are back this season, along with Lloyd Avant, who portals in from Colorado State.
Leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III is back, and two P4-level receivers portal in, most notably Trell Harris, who caught 59 passes with five touchdowns for Virginia last season.
The offensive line had its fair share of injury problems last season, but four starters return, and portal players from Western Kentucky and Arkansas enter after being major contributors at their previous stops.
There's no way to expect OU to maintain the success it had in 2025, but this defense still has the potential to be very strong once again.
Taylor Wein is back along the edge, and David Stone is such a force in the middle of the interior. A few talented young players are also looking to make their mark, so expect the run defense to be strong again.
Much of the linebacker talent returns, including Kip Lewis and Owen Heinecke.
The secondary loses one starter, but there are 6-7 talented players who can rotate in. The pass coverage numbers should be very strong if the front can create Havoc regularly.
The schedule is tough. OU plays four of my projected top five finishers in SEC play, plus a nonconference road game at Michigan.
We should get a good idea of what these guys are all about after Week 4, following the road game against Michigan at the Big House and between the hedges at Georgia.
OU catches Florida, Ole Miss and Texas A&M in favorable scheduling spots, but the last four games of the season are going to be coin-flips. There's also a chance South Carolina improves significantly from last season.
I lean over the win total, but that schedule is nasty, and I worry about the road slate.
If Mateer and the offensive line stay healthy all season, this offense is going to be more potent, leaving OU to threaten for nine or 10 wins. I'm excited to play the Sooners week-to-week.
Pick: Oklahoma Over 7.5 Wins (Lean)
Ole Miss Rebels
Win Total: 7.5 (-172o / +140u)
Ole Miss posted an impressive stretch run last season, winning five games in a row before knocking off Georgia in the College Football Playoff.
A narrow defeat at the hands of Miami in the semifinals concluded an excellent season for the Rebels and cemented the Pete Golding era with excitement and expectation.
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was granted an extra year of eligibility, giving the offense a huge boost.
There are several new coaches on staff, including John David Baker taking over as the offensive coordinator. He'll look to continue the positive momentum built over the last four seasons.
The dynamic Kewan Lacy rejoins Chambliss in the backfield after scoring 24 touchdowns while rushing for nearly 1,600 yards a season ago. Joshua Dye will be an exquisite complement here after leading the FCS in rushing last season.
The receiver room has some departures, but Horatio Fields, Cameron Miller and Darrell Gill Jr. should fill the void.
Ole Miss actually threw to the tight ends a decent amount last season, so Caleb Odom should see 30-plus receptions this year in an increased role.
The offensive line looks to be in great shape despite losing two starters, as transfers from LSU, Miami and Oklahoma will jump right in.
I would guess this offense doesn't miss a beat and should be explosive en route to putting up large point totals regularly.
The defensive line was one that forced the issue at times last season, registering 33 sacks and 83 tackles for loss. However, the unit was susceptible to getting gashed on the ground.
The D-line has three big losses, but transfers from Florida, Oregon and Alabama, who all contributed last year, could help soften the blow.
The secondary should also be strong despite losing two starters. P4 talent transfers in and will effectively fill the two-deep at cornerback and safety.
There are some linebacker losses, but Suntarine Perkins is back after logging 65 tackles last season, and the coaching staff is high on Luke Ferrelli (Cal) and Keaton Thomas (Baylor). I have questions about the group, but they could be on par with last year's unit.
Ole Miss is a very talented team, and the way it played last year with a skeleton staff was impressive.
Chambliss is a baller, and his dual-threat capabilities create nightmare scenarios for the opposition. Yet, there's some transition in the coaching staff, and there are some position groups that will rely heavily on transfers.
Drawing Louisville in a neutral-site environment is a challenge, as are road games against Florida, Texas and Oklahoma.
The conference home slate is nasty with Missouri, Georgia and Auburn coming to Oxford. I figure every single team is going to give the Rebels their best shot.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Ole Miss playing very meaningful football late into the season, with a chance to get back to the playoff. With a win total set at 7.5, I certainly don't want to look at the under.
The issue is eight coin-flip games and nine conference games in a strong league, plus a tough nonconference opener.
If Ole Miss wins a game or two it shouldn't, it could contend for the conference title. A lot has to go right, though, so I'm just not sure magic will strike again this season.
I'm passing on the win total, but I slightly lean over 7.5 wins.
Pick: Ole Miss Over 7.5 Wins (Lean)
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South Carolina Gamecocks
Win Total: 6.5 (+116o / -142u)
South Carolina had so many unfortunate circumstances go against it last season, and it didn't help that the Gamecocks played one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country.
The offensive and defensive lines were concerning and suffered injuries, as did quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who was much less effective running the ball in 2025.
The O-line gave up 43 sacks and 88 tackles for loss last year. Yet, despite all that, the Gamecocks competed very well. They should have defeated both Alabama and Texas A&M, and could have fared better against Missouri, LSU and Clemson.
South Carolina found itself in full-blown trench wars week in and week out, but it just couldn't find ways to move the ball when it needed to most.
Head coach Shane Beamer is starting to experience a warmer coaching seat and has made the necessary changes to provoke growth on the offensive side of the ball.
Hiring Kendal Briles to run the offense should pay dividends quickly, and the ground attack should improve with a new O-line coach in collaboration with Shawn Elliott, who works as the run-game coordinator.
Sellers returns at quarterback and will seek to get back to his 2024 form, when he dazzled weekly while leading the Gamecocks to nine wins. Three P4-level transfers should provide explosiveness and consistency in the run game.
Nyck Harbor returns as an explosive receiver, but he needs more consistency. Three P4-level transfers will also provide depth in the wide receiver room.
The offensive line is the group to watch, as seven transfers enter looking to unlock the right combo for a better performance.
After back-to-back years of surrendering 80-plus TFLs and 40-plus sacks, having more reliability up front will be key in the offense becoming more potent.
The defensive line held its own in SEC play last season, but the unit lost a decent amount of production and will be looking for more consistent play while developing depth. Four transfers come in, helping to fill the void left by three starters and three others in the second platoon.
The linebacker position is the strength of the defense with three starters back. These guys should support the run game and serve better in pass coverage with another year of experience under their belt.
The secondary has regularly overperformed its talent level over the last four seasons and should be strong once again as the program continues to develop depth.
The schedule is tough as the SEC migrates over to a nine-game conference slate. The Gamecocks also draw Clemson in the nonconference, as always.
A 4-1 start is very much in the cards, and if the trench play improves, wins over Florida and Tennessee are also possible. How this bunch performs on the road will determine whether or not South Carolina can get back to nine (or so) wins or if it will just hover around bowl eligibility.
I think South Carolina can take a step forward on both sides of the ball, but that will obviously be predicated on sound line play.
I don't have the Gamecocks as worse than 9-point underdogs in any game this season. I also project them to be favored in 6-7 contests.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Sellers put up big numbers and for SC to remain competitive week-to-week. I lean over the win total strongly.
Pick: South Carolina Over 6.5 Wins (Lean)
Tennessee Volunteers
Win Total: 7.5 (-124o / +102u)
Tennessee was so close to another breakout season. The Vols lost a heartbreaker at home in overtime to Georgia and were right there with Alabama, even outgaining the Tide and racking up more first downs.
A close loss to Oklahoma saw all playoff chances evaporate, and the Vols would end up losing the season finale and the bowl game for a disappointing 8-5 season.
There were bright spots, however, and there's reason for optimism heading into 2026 — as long as the defense can experience an uptick in production.
Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles comes in after one season at Penn State to run the defense, and improvement in stopping the run would be greatly appreciated. Tennessee was awful at stopping teams on the ground or on third down in SEC play.
The defensive line loses a ton of production, as all four starters and seven other players from the two-deep are gone. A pair of Penn State transfers enter in, along with Jordan Norman, who posted a half-dozen sacks at Tulane last season.
The linebacker group looks good. Each of the top three return, anchored by Arion Carter and Jeremiah Telander. Amare Campbell played well at Penn State last year and will factor into the rotation as well.
The secondary is a bit of a mystery. Half of the starters and most of the second platoon departed, so transfers from Penn State, Michigan and Auburn look to fill the void and bolster the production.
Kansas State nickelback Qua Moss will do well here in the new scheme.
Overall, the defense is filled with new faces, so it will take some time to get the stop unit where it needs to be.
The offense will be led by one of three players, as true freshman Faizon Brandon comes in very highly-touted, while George MacIntyre is a holdover from last season. Ryan Staub also transfers in from Colorado.
I'm not really excited about any of the three options this season, given the rigors of an SEC schedule.
DeSean Bishop is back at running back, and Javin Gordon transfers in from the G5 level, giving Tennessee a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield.
Tennessee recruited the wide receiver position well, signing several four- and five-star players, along with explosive FCS transfer Ian Duarte coming in from Idaho State.
Tennessee has an excellent offensive line that allowed just 22 sacks last season and returns four starters.
The Volunteers will be favored in all three nonconference games and should start out 3-0 before a home bout with Texas. Getting Auburn and Arkansas early in the season could be good for the Vols, as both of those schools are going through significant roster and coaching turnover.
The season's trajectory will hinge on Tennessee's home game against Alabama on the Third Saturday in October. The Vols play five of my projected bottom six finishers in the SEC this season, and the road schedule is manageable.
The SEC is a league where success is driven by quarterback play and stout defense, and right now, Tennessee is unproven in both of those areas.
I lean under the win total. The Vols could be in eight coin-flip games, and without being able to lean on the QB or defense throughout the season, I just can't imagine them making a jump.
Pick: Tennessee Under 7.5 Wins (Lean)
Texas Longhorns
Win Total: 9.5 (+112o / -138u)
Texas had so much hype coming into 2025. The first six weeks of the season were a complete disappointment, starting with a season-opening loss to Ohio State at the Horseshoe, where Texas scored only one time.
Sluggish wins over San Jose State and UTEP caused more doubt to creep into the minds of the Texas faithful as the offense looked terrible for long stretches.
Following a bye week, the Horns lost to Florida in The Swamp before dominating Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
Texas escaped the next three weeks with one-score victories, was embarrassed on the road at Georgia and then defeated rival Texas A&M before winning the bowl game.
This is a pivotal year for Steve Sarkisian and this Horns staff.
Quarterback Arch Manning turned down the NFL to return to Texas after showing both flashes of brilliance and times of struggle last year.
Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State) transfer in at running back, and the offensive line looks good with three starters back.
Transfers from Wake, SMU and Texas A&M figure to log plenty of snaps, and Texas will run the football better and more consistently this season.
Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V are explosive receivers, and Cam Coleman will be a nice complement in the passing game.
The Texas defense was inconsistent at times, but when it locked in, it was really tough. Will Muschamp comes over to run the defense after spending the last two seasons at Georgia.
The defensive line has some returning talent, including Colin Simmons and Hero Kanu. A pair of SEC transfers could vie for playing time, so I expect stout run defense once again.
Rasheem Biles comes over at linebacker from Pitt and will contribute immediately, along with Justin Cryer, who comes in from Florida State. Ty'Anthony Smith is also a very good player, so this could be a nasty bunch if they can stay healthy.
The secondary loses some pieces, but there's talent in the two-deep. As long as the Horns can prevent explosive plays in the passing game, this defense will be tough to score on.
Texas does have a more favorable draw this time around in SEC play, but the road and neutral-site games are tough. I have the Longhorns favored by no more than six points in any contest played outside of Austin, so they're likely going to be in close games week in and week out once again.
The showdown in Week 2 against Ohio State will be a huge indicator of the progress made in the offseason, specifically offensively.
There are too many things that have to go right for Texas to contend in the SEC and ascend to elite status.
I really don't love the staff, and I still have some doubts about Manning being considered the best player in the country. I project just over 8.5 wins, but it feels likely that nine wins will be the result.
I think this win total hinges on the Week 2 performance and the season finale on the road against Texas A&M. I lean under the win total, but I feel there are better opportunities to fade Texas situationally throughout the season.
Pick: Texas Under 9.5 Wins (Lean)
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Texas A&M Aggies
Win Total: 8.5 (-106o / -114u)
Mike Elko has already done great things in College Station during his tenure, as the Aggies won 11 games in 2025.
The defense was super inconsistent, giving up 24, 22 and 40 points in the nonconference while even struggling at times in games A&M won.
Its best performance certainly came at the end of the season, when A&M lost to Miami, 10-3, at home in the College Football Playoff, where the offense squandered several golden opportunities.
The offense has to perform better in the clutch if A&M wants to take another step forward.
Marcel Reed returns at quarterback and will be a huge factor in that, along with three reliable pass-catchers.
Former Alabama wide receiver Isaiah Horton figures to work into the starting rotation, and Rueben Owens II is back at running back after leading the Aggies with 639 rushing yards a season ago.
Two G6 tight ends who started last year at Fresno State and UTSA bolster the weaponry.
The offensive line sees four starters depart, but four players who started at SEC schools come in. A&M did a great job preventing negative plays last season and should boast an above-average line once again.
Defensively, the front seven was a force last season, registering 43 sacks and 110 tackles for loss while ranking third nationally Havoc.
There was a ton of talent lost in the front via graduation and the NFL Draft, but there are some dudes ready to roll in 2026.
DJ Hicks should anchor the interior D-line, while Anto Saka (Northwestern), CJ Mims (UNC) and Ryan Henderson (San Diego State) should all log snaps.
However, the linebacker depth could be tested late in the season.
The secondary is strong — or at least has the potential to be. Bryce Anderson comes back after taking a redshirt year after four games played, and Marcus Ratcliffe and Dezz Ricks are studs.
It's stunning that this group had just three interceptions last year, but I'd expect that to triple or quadruple this year.
The Aggies turned the ball over on offense far too frequently last year in key moments, and that nearly cost them in four of their victories. If Reed takes a step and the line develops continuity early, they could make another run at the playoff.
As it sits, Texas A&M plays my fifth-toughest SEC schedule with five league games on the road. All five of those games will be coin-flips, and challenges include Tennessee and Texas at home.
I think the win total is spot on here. Nine wins is completely within the realm of possibility for A&M, which gets a well-timed bye week and FCS game placement.
I have this team projected as a favorite in eight games overall while being a 'dog of no more than four points all season.
The defense was nasty last season, and if this group is anywhere close to as tough up front, the Aggies could allow less than 20 points a game while giving their offense great situations to succeed.
BetMGM put out a bad number of 9.5 earlier this spring, which I mentioned on Twitter, but that number is long gone.
At 8.5, I lean over slightly. A split on the road at Missouri and at South Carolina could get them there.
A&M could be playing Texas with a spot in the conference championship game on the line in the last week of the season.
Pick: Texas A&M Over 8.5 Wins (Lean)
Vanderbilt Commodores
Win Total: 5.5 (-140o / +112u)
Vanderbilt has had a remarkable ascent to the upper third of the SEC under the direction of Clark Lea, with major contributions from Action Network G5 "Hero of the Week" Diego Pavia.
Remember when Vandy was struggling with Elon, barely beating UConn and getting blown out by East Tennessee State at home? It was such a dark time in Nashville, but Lea is making good on his promise to bring Vanderbilt out of the depths.
Having a major dude like Pavia was such a boost, but the vision and framework are there for Vanderbilt to be taken seriously week in and week out.
Pavia moves on this season, and it appears the offense will be guided by true freshman and five-star recruit Jared Curtis, who flipped his commitment to Vanderbilt from Georgia this winter.
Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young return in the backfield, so I expect Vandy's game plan to be handing the ball off a decent amount to these two, who combined for 17 rushing scores last season.
Ja'Cory Thomas transfers in at receiver from Old Dominion and will contribute immediately, while Cole Spence is likely a breakout candidate at tight end.
The offensive line has some work to do after several starters depart due to graduation, but Vandy hit the portal hard with transfers from Alabama, North Dakota State and Pitt who should help fill the void.
Defensively, Vanderbilt is seeking to reload along the D-line once again after it lost five contributors from last year's two-deep.
Brian Allen transfers in from Iowa and should log snaps right away, along with Yilanan Ouattara, who returns after missing last season after the opener but started the previous two years.
The top two linebackers are back, and we could see more nickel this year, as Vandy returns all but two starters in the secondary, along with Ricardo Jones coming in from Clemson.
The pass defense numbers weren't all that strong last season, as Vandy allowed a conversion rate of 43% on third down while registering just eight interceptions. The back end needs to take a step forward.
Vanderbilt is no longer the laughingstock of the SEC, but this team will have everyone's full attention after winning 10 games last season.
The 'Dores will be heavily favored in their first two games and should be favored by more than a touchdown against NC State, although that's not a spot in which I'm looking to lay points.
The conference schedule starts hot and heavy with back-to-back roadies at Auburn and Georgia, followed by a home bout against Ole Miss.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Vandy drop all three of those before securing a home win over Arkansas to start the season 3-3.
The Commodores might see themselves as small road favorites over Kentucky and Mississippi State, but those are going to be two tough road environments against teams vying for bowl eligibility. Perhaps they split there before a tough close featuring Alabama, Florida and Tennessee.
I believe Vandy deserves to be more respected in the SEC due to the program elevating its talent level from top to bottom.
Five SEC road games won't be easy, nor will home bouts with NC State, Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee.
I bet under 6.5 right away this spring, but the number has gotten away from us. At the current number of 5.5, I'd pass.
Pick: Pass
