Welcome to the first installment of our college football spring conference previews.
With most teams' spring practices getting underway and many camps already concluding, now is the perfect time to start the preseason preparation to better position yourself for offseason wagers.
College football regular-season win totals are my absolute favorite of any derivative market in any sport. I love diving into the scheduling nuances, looking for tough spots, assessing the strength of the competition and getting an early peek at the talent level for each team.
This year, the spring portal has been eliminated, which gives us a better idea of roster composition come fall camp.
With most major books releasing a win total on all teams within the Power 4 leagues — and some even releasing alternate line totals — we wanted to better equip you in terms of what to look for when diving into this betting market.
While we anxiously await Group of Five win totals (delayed partially due to the scheduling influx involving Louisiana Tech and their conference affiliation, which affects two sets of conference schedules) we're starting our series in the Power 4.
So, what you can expect in this series of articles?
- A team-by-team breakdown of the schedule, projected win percentages, a five-year look back on historical regular-seasion win performance and my opinion on the win total for every team (although, some of those opinions will be to pass at the current offered number).
- Leans, which will be clearly spelled out as a strong opinion that I'm considering playing but have not placed a bet on as of writing. These plays may be added later and will be tracked in the award-winning Action Network App when they're placed.
- Official Plays, which have been placed and logged in the app. These will be clearly spelled out for bets we have actually placed and have logged in the app. Many of these numbers are still currently available.
We're starting in the Big 12,and will work through the Power 4 with new installments dropping regularly.
With that said, let's dive into the Big 12 win totals and my college football picks for the upcoming season. Thank you for diving in with us, and we will catch you guys at the window.
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Welcome to our Big 12 win totals preview. To navigate directly to a specific team section, simply click on a logo above.
Arizona Wildcats
Win Total: 7.5 (+118o / -144u)
Arizona really broke through as a program with a 9-4 season in 2025.
Quarterback Noah Fifita set a program record with 29 touchdown passes, and he returns for his senior season in Tucson.
The skill positions reloaded via the portal, and the offensive line appears to be in good shape as well. There's extreme coaching continuity, and Fifita should thrive in a schedule that's conducive to winning.
The defense was stout against the run all season and will need to be once again for this group to ascend into Big 12 contention.
The nonconference should provide three wins, as Arizona will be favored by double digits in all three, although a trip to face Washington State on the Palouse will provide the toughest test.
An early conference road test at BYU will reveal a ton about what this team is made of early, and games against Cincinnati, West Virginia and Iowa State will provide the Wildcats an opportunity to start this season 6-1 or better.
The schedule is tough late, providing five "gut-check" games in succession. This is highlighted by road trips to Lubbock to face Texas Tech and Manhattan to play Kansas State.
Seeing Utah, TCU and Arizona State come to town will provide winnable opportunities, but those three teams will provide stiff challenges.
I think there's a real chance this group overachieves relative to the win total here. If the Wildcats find a way to upset BYU early, we could have a special season in the making.
My numbers are relatively in line with the market on the win total, and of the top six projected finishers in the Big 12 (Arizona being one of them), the Wildcats play the other five, so I'm passing on the win total for that reason.
I think this is a very good team with a tough conference schedule. But if the 'Cats have improved as a team, there's an outside chance they're contending for a spot in the Big 12 Championship game.
Pick: Pass
Arizona State Sun Devils
Win Total: 6.5 (-108o / -112u)
Arizona State was probably fortunate to have ended up with the 8-4 regular-season record it had last year, as the Sun Devils won just one conference game by more than five points.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt was instrumental in keeping the offense afloat, and his connection with star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson was critical in many ASU victories.
Leavitt (LSU) and Tyson (NFL) depart this season, along with leading rusher Raleek Brown (Texas) and all five starters from the offensive line, so the Sun Devils will be searching for contributors everywhere offensively.
Cutter Boley and Mikey Keene will battle it out at quarterback, and David Avit is a nice addition at running back out of the FCS ranks, although he's still a downgrade from what they've had here in Brown and Cam Skattebo.
Defensively, ASU was excellent on third down and in the red zone, but there was a lot to be desired between the 20s. The Sun Devils' biggest strength was their ability to register sacks and tackles for loss, but the overwhelming majority of that production is gone.
ASU will have to get the defense up to speed quickly, as an early-season trip to face Texas A&M in College Station will test everything this defense is made of.
An overseas trip to play Kansas in a conference game is also a bizarre twist in the 2026 schedule. After that, an early bye week forces ASU to play the last nine weeks of the season.
Plus, the conference road slate is brutal. Arizona State draws four of the top five projected finishers in Big 12 play, with three of those bouts coming on the road.
ASU might find itself as a comfortable favorite in league play just once while being double-digit underdogs 3-4 times. This won't leave much room for error, with home games against Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State looming large.
I think the offense will regress this season, and the defense loses many contributors from last season. This team is going to experience much more change than it's accustomed to.
The 10-win season and College Football Playoff appearance were fun, but I think we'll see ASU continue to slide back toward the 6-7 win territory, where it'll likely reside for the foreseeable future.
I'm passing on the win total at the current number, but if we see an under 7, I would consider that for a play.
Pick: Pass
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Baylor Bears
Win Total: 6.5 (-108o / -112u)
Baylor has a chance to put together a solid season, but it's going to have to fix consistent issues on defense and hope that Florida transfer DJ Lagway flourishes at quarterback.
Head coach Dave Aranda is squarely on the hot seat, and I'm not sure if 6-6 or 7-5 cuts it here.
The schedule is one where the Bears can ease into it a bit after the neutral-site opener against Auburn. I expect a 3-1 start for the Bears.
Big 12 play features four of the weakest five teams in the conference, but the closing stretch is brutal with BYU, Texas Tech and Houston, with two of those coming on the road.
Baylor might be favored in only 4-5 games this season and could be a touchdown underdog in five or more games.
Aranda shook up the defensive staff this offseason, attempting to spark some growth on that side of the ball. The defensive line does have some transfer talent.
Baylor has to develop its blocking tight ends and get back to running the football, something it couldn't do for long stretches last season.
You could argue that the Bears didn't get any better at quarterback with the departure of Sawyer Robertson, and Auburn is going to provide a real challenge in the season opener.
I want to believe that this team is going to be significantly improved, but after six years, the defense hasn't taken a stride. I still worry about Baylor finding a way to stop the run consistently.
Arizona State, TCU and UCF are swing games that will significantly determine the trajectory of this season and perhaps the Aranda era in Waco.
I think 7-5 is the ceiling, and 5-7 or 6-6 is likely once again, which will cause the Baylor administration to decide whether it's time to pull the plug and go in a different direction next season. I like the win total under here.
Pick: Baylor Under 6.5 Wins (Official Play)
BYU Cougars
Win Total: 8.5 (-108o / -112u)
There appears to be much more consistency with BYU than with most of the other teams we'll preview in FBS.
The quarterback, running back and offensive line rooms look to be in good shape, and most of last year's receiving production returns.
The tight end room is athletic, and they can help both in the run game and pass game. The offensive and defensive lines should prove to be tough up front.
The defense will be strong, but special teams could be interesting, as BYU is breaking in a new kicker.
The numbers don't love looking over when it comes to the regular-season win total, but there are just so few games that BYU should lose.
The Cougars could be favorites in 10 or more games, but the schedule landmines are there. Notre Dame and Utah will be tough games, as will the games following those two.
The conference schedule is favorable with BYU playing six of the projected bottom eight teams in the league while avoiding Texas Tech, Kansas State and Houston.
You could make an argument that BYU won five games it should have lost last season, and the home voodoo is consistently there.
The road trip to UCF is one to watch, as the Cougars could be off a significant letdown following the Notre Dame game, and the travel is nasty there.
The overall program stability is there, along with coaching staff continuity. If BYU is better than last year's team, a trip to the conference championship isn't far-fetched. I'd guess eight wins should be the absolute floor for this team this year.
Road trips to TCU and Utah won't be easy, and I might look to fade BYU against the spread at Colorado State and UCF — but those are still two games they should win.
I'm passing on the regular-season win total at the current price but would lean over. If a flat 8 gets released at -180 or better, I'll look to play over. I would not play under 8.5.
Pick: Pass (Would consider playing over 8 later in summer)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Win Total: 5.5 (-114o / -108u)
Cincinnati exceeded expectations last year behind the brilliant play of quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who's off to Texas Tech.
Sorsby masked so many of the inconsistencies shown on the defensive side of the ball. Cincy was routinely shredded in the pass game, and its sack numbers weren't strong enough to limit the damage.
UC had a quick-strike offense filled with explosive playmakers, but when the big plays weren't hitting, the Bearcats experienced quick possessions and the defense being left in bad spots.
I'm worried about the defensive front, which lost seven of the top nine players from a unit that already struggled to generate pressure. The secondary replaces all four starters and will seek to stop the gap with MAC transfers.
I don't believe new QB JC French (Georgia Southern) is going to be consistent enough or comfortable enough to regularly lead scoring drives. I expect the offensive line to surrender significantly more sacks, and the downgrade in decision-making will cause the offense to stall out without generating big plays.
The Bearcats' offensive line is actually in decent shape, but the skill-position players need to emerge.
The schedule is difficult, as most of the winnable games come on the road. UC also plays six of the projected top seven teams in the Big 12.
Wins against Boston College and Miami (OH) in the nonconference aren't assured. There's a real chance Cincy loses six games in a row to open league play.
Plus, the opponents' style of play will be tough for Cincinnati to defend. Last year, UC finessed its way to victory in its wins, but when it came time to line up and run the ball or defend the run late in the year, it faded.
The defense is going to be significantly worse than last year, and the lack of a quick-strike offense will magnify those defensive inefficiencies substantially.
The only conference game I can confidently feel good about would be Colorado at home.
The seat is heating up for Scott Satterfield at UC. Last year was a nice rebound year, but the way the Bearcats closed and how they looked in the bowl game, there are definitely concerns.
Pick: Cincinnati Under 5.5 Wins (Official Play)
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Colorado Buffaloes
Win Total: 4.5 (+138o / -170u)
Colorado has so many question marks up and down the roster.
Handing over the reins to an inexperienced freshman quarterback in Julian Lewis with an offensive line that doesn’t threaten to pave running lanes or hold up in pass protection is scary.
Incoming Sacramento State transfer Damian Henderson II could shine at running back here, and wide receiver Danny Scudero will likely post an 85-reception season totaling 1,000 or more yards, with Kam Perry serving as an excellent complement.
I would expect easy reads and a lot of throws to the slot position. If the first read isn't there, heroics will be needed to stack positive plays together.
Expect Colorado to surrender north of 40 sacks this season.
The defense is such an unknown. Twenty-eight of the top 31 tacklers from last season are gone, and there are a lot of transfer pieces that will have to gel together quickly.
None of the transfers were eye-popping on defense, and I expect this unit to regularly give up 500 yards and 40 points to its opponents.
The schedule isn't the hardest in the world, but nonconference road games against Power 4 opponents in Georgia Tech and Northwestern aren't going to be easy. The Buffaloes also play eight of the projected top 11 teams in Big 12 play.
When looking at the schedule, most of the winnable games are on the road, but going to places like Tempe, Cincinnati and Stillwater won't be easy.
Back-to-back games against TTU and Utah will test what this team is made of quickly, and CU could be banged up and dead on arrival when it plays its final 4-5 games.
Even a generous outlook at the end leaves room for another unexpected win in the schedule, and that still only gets Colorado to four wins.
The Buffs are likely going to need two or even three outright upsets to exceed this year's win total. More and more, it appears that 2024 was an anomaly as opposed to a sign of an upward trend in Boulder.
Pick: Colorado Under 4.5 Wins (Lean)
Houston Cougars
Win Total: 7.5 (-150o / +122u)
Houston head coach Willie Fritz has won everywhere he has been, and the nine-win regular season last year certainly was a positive sign for a program that far exceeded preseason expectations.
The bowl win over LSU capped off a 10-win season, and much of the core returns for the Cougars this season.
I like the portal additions, including dynamic running back Makhi Hughes, who has extreme familiarity with the system following his time with Fritz at Tulane.
I like the receiver additions, and the offensive line was also beefed up. Ultimately, Houston should be just fine offensively.
The defense was probably a year ahead of schedule last year, and transfers on the defensive line coming together will be critical. The nonconference schedule is very manageable, but the Big 12 slate is a mixed bag.
Houston plays three of the top four projected finishers in league play, but it also plays three of the bottom four. The Cougars have back-to-back road games twice, but they do catch Baylor, Cincinnati and Kansas State in good situational spots.
Fritz is a program builder, and the ascent last season was ahead of schedule. Now, the idea is to maintain and inch closer to the top of this league. I'm inclined to believe they can push to get into the second tier in the Big 12, as the Cougars could be favored in as many as nine games this upcoming season.
The issue is that their last seven games are all projected to be priced as one-score games, and a lot has to go right for the Cougars to win eight or more games this year.
That includes five conference road games with no "gimmes" just one year after this group won six one-possession games. If the late-game magic continues, the Cougars could still be playing meaningful football late in the year.
Hinge games that will determine the success or failure of this season are the three right in the middle of the schedule with Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Utah all being played consecutively. If they go 2-1 or better in those games, a nine-win season isn't off the table. If they go 1-2, we're probably looking at seven or eight wins.
I'm not running to the window either way to bet this win total, especially given the juicy odds. I would consider betting under 8.5 within certain pricing parameters.
With that said, I do like this team and the staff. It should be a fun season for Houston.
Pick: Pass
Iowa State Cyclones
Win Total: 5.5 (+110o / -134u)
Iowa State has experienced a ton of turnover with Matt Campbell leaving for Penn State and taking a plethora of transfers with him to Happy Valley.
In comes Jimmy Rodgers from Washington State, where he spent one year on the Palouse after serving as head coach at South Dakota State. Jesse Bobbit comes over as the defensive coordinator, along with three other Wazzu position coaches and a cast of others who are all in their first year in Ames.
Jaylen Raynor and Zane Flores will battle it out in the QB room. If Raynor wins the job, his dynamic skill set will be interesting to watch in this new offense.
Bowling Green transfer Cameron Pettaway is a solid running back addition, but the receiver room has me pausing about how explosive this offense will be.
The defense will have depth issues, and I wonder if magic will be recreated here with some of the Washington State talent brought in.
The schedule is difficult, and while the Cyclones do avoid Texas Tech, they play the other four strongest teams in Big 12 play, along with eight other teams that are projected to be power-rated at least three points higher than Iowa State.
The Cyclones might be favored in just four games all season, and all five road games are challenging. Iowa State will have to pull some upsets to reach a bowl game, something Rogers accomplished at Washington State.
This season is all about setting the tone and culture while trying to get settled in a rebuilding year and clawing toward bowl eligibility.
I could back this team in the Cy-Hawk Game if it's catching 14 or more, and possibly again while hosting Cincinnati.
I don't think the defense will be outstanding, and the offense is lacking playmakers at the skill positions with a rebuilt offensive line that we'll know very little about for the first three weeks.
If the defense is as good as it was at Wazzu under Rogers and Bobbit, this team could make a bowl game.
Ultimately, I'm passing on the regular-season win total at the current number, although I might take a stab at the under if we see a flat 6.
Pick: Pass
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Kansas Jayhawks
Win Total: 5.5 (-150o / +124u)
Lance Leipold has done an exceptional job providing consistency and navigating rough waters during his tenure at Kansas.
Remember where this team was before he got here? Getting shredded by Coastal Carolina at home, squeaking by Indiana State and losing to Nicholls State. Those are things you would never imagine today.
Leipold got some major offensive dudes and kept them at KU, and the result has been consistent five-plus win seasons four years running.
The departure of Jalon Daniels at quarterback cannot be understated, as he was such an instrumental piece of what the offense wanted to do. Now, Cole Ballard and Chase Jenkins will battle it out this season.
Jenkins ran the inverted option at Rice last season and really needs to grow as a consistent passer. He looked so uncomfortable at times last season, but if he fits the scheme well, this offense could be fun to watch.
I love the running back additions, and Nik McMillian is a great receiver from Buffalo who nearly posted a 1,000-yard season last year.
The road games are tough, and there are five of them in league play. For a team that doesn't win on the road regularly, it's hard to imagine Kansas finding a ton of success in away games this season. Plus, it has to play a conference game in Dublin while also hosting SEC foe Missouri.
Two wins are very likely with Long Island and Middle Tennessee on the schedule, but that might be the only time Kansas is a decided favorite all season. It's likely going to be a 'dog in 7-8 games with 2-3 coin-flips, so winning the close games will be critical.
Kansas has to be able to stop the run, which is something it struggled with last year. This team was bullied by superior foes in the trenches and out-finessed by Cincinnati and Iowa State.
League play has KU playing six of the top nine, although it avoids Houston and Texas Tech.
My projections are right on the number here, but the culture and program trajectory likely make five wins the floor for Kansas.
The schedule just isn't conducive to racking up wins in succession with Kansas State, UCF, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Baylor all likely to be improved or on par with 2025.
I might wait for the option to bet under 6 flat, as I believe seven wins are unattainable here. I'm passing at the current number, although I lean under.
Quarterback play and stopping the run on defense will be critical benchmarks in determining if KU goes bowling or watches from home this winter.
Pick: Pass
Kansas State Wildcats
Win Total: 7.5 (-162o / +132u)
A season ending at 6-6 with no bowl game (program's choice) was certainly a disappointment for the Wildcats last season.
Excitement is building over former K-State hero Collin Klein, who returns to the Little Apple as head coach after serving as Texas A&M's offensive coordinator.
I like the staff he has assembled, and I think he should be able to unlock more out of the quarterback room.
The skill-position portal additions are good, and the tight end room might be the most critical piece, both in the run game and in the pass game.
A transfer-reliant defense will need to come together quickly.
Last year, five of the Wildcats' six losses were within one score. There's a real chance K-State was more unlucky than bad, and I'd expect those breaks to even out this time around.
This is the lowest Kansas State win total in some time, which sets up for a nice bounce-back season. The Wildcats might be an underdog in only 2-3 games this season, and none of these games are considered unwinnable.
This is quite the favorable draw, as K-State will be a favorite of two touchdowns or more in every nonconference game, and it avoids the top three in Big 12 play in Texas Tech, BYU and Utah.
Kansas State draws three of the bottom five projected teams and six teams right bunched in the middle. It could be a touchdown favorite in most conference games, and the road schedule is very conducive to picking up wins away from home.
While I'm not going to boldly call for 9-3 or better, this is a regular-season win play that I do like.
Pick: Kansas State Over 7.5 Wins (Official Play)
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Win Total: 5.5 (-164o / +134u)
It was a clear disappointment on all levels for Oklahoma State last season, resulting in the departure of longtime head coach Mike Gundy.
One win over an FCS opponent, and that was it.
The bottom fell out with an abhorrent performance against Oregon on the road, followed by a stunning loss to little brother Tulsa at home.
Six non-competitive losses followed, but this team didn't quit and still showed a ton of fight in the last three games, giving the Pokes a chance to win every one of them.
In comes new head coach Eric Morris from North Texas, along with nearly everyone he had on staff at UNT last season. Over a dozen starters from the Mean Green come over with Morris, highlighted by quarterback Drew Mestemaker and skill-position players who will have an immediate impact.
There are some questions on the offensive and defensive lines, two of the most important units on the field.
The defense is going to have to build on last season's close, where it held all three opponents under 21 points in three close losses. But even with significant improvement, the UNT defense wasn't all that good, so extreme improvement is unlikely.
However, this schedule is conducive to racking up wins and reaching bowl eligibility.
Oklahoma State plays the projected bottom five teams in league play while drawing only one of the top six. It will be a two-touchdown or greater underdog against Oregon and Texas Tech, but every other game on the slate can be considered winnable.
When looking at quick turnarounds, you want an injection of explosive talent, a composed quarterback and a favorable schedule. Oklahoma State has that and will have opportunities to compete in almost every game.
The best line out there is -164 on the over, with many shops priced even worse, but I think the floor for this group is five wins (Tulsa, Murray State, Colorado, UCF, Kansas).
We really aren't asking too much for another win to surpass the win total, but it's going to have to come on the road against West Virginia, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State or Arizona State.
I lean over, and I might get there, but the roster turnover and how poor UNT's run defense was last year is just keeping me off it at the moment. This will be a feisty bunch this season, and I'll seek to back the Pokes in my week-to-week wagering.
Pick: Pass
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TCU Horned Frogs
Win Total: 6.5 (-140o / +114u)
TCU has been relatively consistent in avoiding the bad year, and the program has proven that it can be a tough out each week.
Handing the offense over to Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig creates a situation of unknowns. Craig is athletic and can move in the pocket to make plays with his legs, but he has missed some easy throws over the last two seasons in the Ivy League.
That was a consistent problem last year.
There are some weapons around Craig this season, and two tune-up games early on should help settle him in.
The defense appears to be solid and really overperformed in many areas last season. This unit has some pieces returning and some transfers coming in and will need to come up big in conference games if TCU is to exceed its win total this season.
The defensive line should be in pretty good shape and could blossom into one of the better units in the conference.
TCU catches BYU and Baylor at bad times while catching Kansas, Iowa State and Arizona State in favorable scheduling spots.
Two bye weeks will be helpful, and while I think the floor for this team is probably 6-6, there are so many unknowns surrounding Craig and whether the raw talent is enough.
The Horned Frogs also need to run the football better and have another receiver or two step up to complement Jordan Dwyer, who's coming off a 730-yard, seven-touchdown season.
TCU is probably looking at 4-5 home wins, and the Dublin game against North Carolina is a likely win, although it's not guaranteed.
The schedule gets tough at the end, so whether or not the success is deemed a success will hinge on its road games.
While my numbers are right in line with the win total, I would consider playing over 6 flat if that becomes available. I'm passing at the current number.
Pick: Pass
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Win Total: 10.5 (+154o / -192u)
Texas Tech should be a double-digit favorite in every game this season and possibly favored in every game by two full touchdowns or more.
Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby is an upgrade at quarterback, and the receiver room should be just fine with Donte Lee Jr. and Kenny Johnson coming in.
Running back is also loaded, as is the tight end room. There's extreme continuity along the offensive line as well.
The defensive losses are big and can't be glossed over, but the group up front will be nasty once again.
Transfers from Miami (OH), Kansas State, Wake Forest and San Diego State will fill the void, and the sack and Havoc numbers should be high once again.
The secondary is going to be very strong, and special teams should also exceed the performance of their peers. I like this team quite a bit.
The schedule is incredible with a very light nonconference slate and a manageable Big 12 schedule thanks to avoiding Utah, Kansas State and BYU — the three highest power-rated teams in the conference outside of Texas Tech.
All road games are extremely winnable. Ultimately, there's a very high chance the Red Raiders go undefeated and play for a conference title.
It's unknown if that would earn them a trip to the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome of the conference title game, but this is a strong team with a lot of top-end talent.
A regular-season win total of 11.5 is unprecedented for Texas Tech. But more often than not, it seems like teams experience a slip-up once a season, often unexpectedly.
I'm passing on the win total at the current number, but I did bet Texas Tech to win the Big 12 Conference.
If you like the under here, you can rope that in with a conference futures ticket on TTU, which pays +265. Not a bad way to go, considering the Red Raiders will likely have to lose three times in league play to not make the conference title game.
Plus, they'll be a touchdown or greater favorite against anybody in the league once they get there.
Pick: Pass (Texas Tech to Win Big 12)
UCF Knights
Win Total: 5.5 (-160o / +130u)
UCF has certainly declined as a program over the last five years. The win total has diminished over that time period, going from 9.5 in 2021 down to 5.5 last year, with the program staying under at an alarming rate.
The Knights really didn’t have the guy at quarterback last year and made do, getting out to a promising 3-0 start. There were some close losses in the fold in league play, along with some plain old-fashioned blowouts. UCF was simply bad on the road.
The quarterback position gets a big boost with Alonza Barnett III (James Madison) and Keyone Jenkins (FIU) coming in. I also like the skill-position additions via the portal.
UCF did have some very sound defensive performances last season, with the only eye-popping game coming against Texas Tech, which it avoids this season. The secondary allowed 13 touchdown passes last season, which isn't a mad mark by any means. The unit can build on that this season.
The schedule is very manageable both in the nonconference and in Big 12 play. UCF plays just one of the top five projected finishers in the conference, and it catches BYU in a great spot after the Cougars play Notre Dame.
This team has two winnable games early, and a trip to Pitt should give us a competitive game. The Knights will rarely be outmatched on paper, but the tougher games on the schedule will be played earlier in the season.
The keys for Scott Frost will be to have a clear-cut front-runner at quarterback, develop the defense and keep the locker room together if the start doesn’t go as planned.
There are two wins early, but this team could be 2-4 or so before BYU comes to town. If this team stays together as a unit, a strong finish and bowl eligibility are certainly within reach.
Situational execution will also be important for UCF this season. The Knights offense was bad on third down and in the red zone last year.
I lean over on the win total, as I think 6-6 is the number, but this team might truly be favored in only 4-5 games this season, with a variety of coin-flip pricing next to its name on a weekly basis.
I'm going to pass at the current number, but I'll look to bet the Knights in-season more often than I look to fade them.
Pick: Pass
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Utah Utes
Win Total: 6.5 (-128o / +104u)
Utah rebounded nicely from a disappointing 2024, as the program had been stuck in neutral — or going slightly in reverse — in recent years.
But now, there's a new era in Salt Lake City. Head coach Kyle Wittingham departed for Michigan and took quite a few coaches with him.
Defensive coordinator and longtime coach-in-waiting Morgan Scalley slides into the HC role and should maintain the physical style of play that made the Utes so successful last season.
The electrifying Devon Dampier shone in the system, throwing for 24 touchdowns while significantly cutting down on interceptions.
Byrd Ficklin performed well in the backup role as well and also had some packages in the run game late in the season.
Utah must rebuild its offensive line, which sees all five starters depart from last year's platoon. I like the receiver additions, but pass-catchers must emerge at tight end.
The defense looks to be in good shape along the back seven, but the defensive line, which had such an impact last season, must be rebuilt.
The schedule provides some challenges, but it could also allow Utah to pick up wins at a high rate.
The Utes should be double-digit favorites in all three nonconference bouts, which they host at Rice-Eccles.
Utah draws five of the bottom six projected finishers in the Big 12 and plays only one of the top four in a game it hosts, granted it's BYU in the Holy War.
The Utes should be favored in every game leading up to the BYU matchup, and the first three road games are very manageable.
The BYU game and the following Arizona game become critical in terms of determining whether or not Utah is capable of ascending to the No. 2 spot in the Big 12.
The offensive line will have some time to get sorted out, as the Utes have quite a few foes on the schedule that have poor run defenses. That means we should get a really good idea of what the offense is capable of early on.
There's a ton of upside with a team that was exquisite in situational execution, and the schedule really sets up well. There's a strong likelihood we circle back to Utah later on this summer.
Pick: Utah Over 8.5 Wins (Lean)
West Virginia Mountaineers
Win Total: 5.5 (-154o / +126u)
West Virginia was probably fortunate to win the four games it did because it had no business winning the Backyard Brawl against Pitt, and it really got fortunate against Houston.
Close losses to TCU and Arizona State showed developmental promise for young quarterback Scotty Fox, but there were so many blowout losses, and the team was just non-competitive against the upper-level Big 12 teams it played.
The offense should improve on the paltry rushing numbers that included 139 yards per game and 3.26 yards per carry against FBS competition with just 17 total rushing touchdowns as a team.
I expect Fox to mature as a passer, and I love Jacksonville State transfer Cam Cook coming in at running back.
The schedule is difficult, though, with WVU drawing six of the top eight teams in Big 12 play and Virginia in the nonconference portion.
Key games for both the win total and bowl eligibility include Iowa State on the road, and Cincinnati and Kansas at home. In all likelihood, the Mountaineers will need to pull off an upset or two to get there.
I think head coach Rich Rodriguez will have this thing going in the right direction sooner rather than later.
West Virginia hasn't done well in terms of exceeding its win total in recent years, but I could see a few breaks going its way. With only four true road games and plenty of winnable situations on home turf, this group could get to 6-6.
I don't agree with many power-rating sources out there that have WVU as the worst-rated team in the Big 12. I think the 'Neers will be better than that.
I'm passing on the win total at the current number, but I'm going to look to bet West Virginia in my week-to-week wagering.
Pick: Pass
