College Football Player Props: 2 Thursday Picks for Jackson Arnold & Kevin Concepcion (Dec. 28)
Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold.
With a four-pack of bowl games on Thursday's slate, I’m narrowing a massive menu down to just two player props.
A monsoon is on tap at Fenway Park, so I’m passing on any plays between SMU and Boston College. The same weather is forecasted for the Pinstripe Bowl between Miami and Rutgers, so let’s breeze past that one as well.
That leaves us with the Pop-Tarts Bowl and the Alamo Bowl. I’ve circled one quarterback’s passing prop that's off by about 15 yards and an all-purpose weapon who's getting too much love in the rushing market.
Thursday College Football Player Prop Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's top player props from Thursday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 5:45 p.m. | |
| 9:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
NC State vs. Kansas State
The Wolfpack’s leading receiver became a hybrid weapon down the stretch for NC State. The true freshman averaged nearly eight carries and 52 rushing yards per game across NC State’s last four games of the regular season.
But there was a common factor in play when he was racking up the rushing yards: poor run defenses.
Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and North Carolina finished 66th, 75th and 91st against the run, respectively. In those three games, he ran for 62 yards per game on the ground. When he drew the Miami Hurricanes and their 11th-ranked run defense, he was held in check with 22 yards on six carries.
Kansas State isn’t a dominant run defense (140 yards per game allowed, 46th), but it did finish 21st in Run Defense Success Rate and will be keying on Concepcion all game.
When it comes to the ground game, K-State has gotten by with the use of gang tackling. But when teams put defenders on islands, things get dicey for the Wildcats. Kansas State was graded out as the 122nd-ranked team in the country in terms of tackling by Pro Football Focus.
Those missed tackles reared their head outside of the box, in open space, on big chunk passing plays. The Wildcats gave up 13 pass plays of at least 40 yards this season (118th).
I believe Concepcion will hit some big ones in this game, but I don’t see him doing it as a traditional runner.
The Wildcats have lost a few key players in their front seven, but the biggest defensive loss is Will Lee III at cornerback. Lee was honorable mention All-Big 12, and his departure into the transfer portal leaves the Cats even more vulnerable through the air.
Keep in mind that Concepcion was targeted 10-plus times in five games this season, so there’s a decent chance that NC State offensive coordinator Robert Anae opts to attack K-State’s vulnerability through the air instead of handing the ball to Concepcion.
Anae has used Concepcion on jet sweeps, as a traditional running back and as a wildcat option throughout the season, but his increased usage as a ball-carrier caught opponents by surprise late in the season.
With five games worth of tape available to Joe Klanderman, I believe Kansas State will be prepared for Concepcion’s run packages. I would play this down to 42.5 yards.
Pick: Concepcion Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 42.5)
Get ready for North Carolina sports betting in 2024! You'll be able to bet NC State player props and all of your other favorite NC-based teams and players in the new year at books like FanDuel, Caesars, and BetMGM.
Arizona vs. Oklahoma
There was buzz this August that Arnold would overtake Dillon Gabriel for the starting role by midseason. Then Gabriel went thermonuclear, stayed healthy and flirted with a trip to New York City for the Heisman presentation.
That's a reflection of Gabriel’s play, not Arnold’s limitations. The five-star quarterback was the 10th-rated recruit in the entire country this past cycle and the top prospect in the state of Texas.
He’s already a polished passer, flashes a live arm and has the functional mobility to take advantage of defenses when RPOs are dialed up for him. In garbage time this season, he completed 75% of his attempts for two scores and zero interceptions.
Given Gabriel’s early defection to the West Coast, Arnold has received double-digit practices as the QB1 leading up to this game, and he’s set to face a mediocre Arizona pass defense. The Wildcats finished 72nd in passing defense, 65th in PFF coverage rankings and 52nd in aerial explosives allowed.
Then there’s the game flow.
Arizona finished the year on an offensive heater. Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita faced three ranked opponents in his final five games, and they did little to slow him down. In that five-game stretch, he averaged 314 yards through the air while tossing 15 touchdowns.
This offense has risen to an elite level under Jedd Fisch and offensive coordinator Brennan Carroll. They will move the ball, they will score and this game will be set up for Arnold and OU to play catch-up.
Oklahoma was gutted this season by big plays through the air (109th in explosives allowed), and that should equate to quick scoring drives for Arizona.
My only true concern with this play is the patchwork Oklahoma offensive line. The Sooners are down three high-quality starters, and while Arizona wasn’t a Havoc-minded defense, they should be able to get to Arnold in this one.
Despite those pocket concerns, I would still play Arnold’s over all the way up to 255.5.
Pick: Arnold Over 242.5 Passing Yards (Play to 255.5)
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