College Football PrizePicks: Week 9 Plays for Dillon Gabriel, Keon Coleman & Ladd McConkey (Saturday, Oct. 28)
Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
We bottomed out last week, failing to hit a winner.
But, as Billy Napier likes to say, “Scared money don’t make money.” And what better way to channel my inner Napier than fading his defense with a play on a Georgia wide receiver?
For my other two plays, I’m banking on breakout performances from two borderline All-Americans.
Check out my top PrizePicks plays for college football Week 9 below.
College Football PrizePicks for Week 9
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's top PrizePicks plays from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 12 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Oklahoma vs. Kansas
Kansas’ pass defense is the worst in the Big 12 by a country mile.
In conference play, the Jayhawks are allowing a shade under 300 aerial yards per game. Opposing passers are connecting on 65.3% of their attempts (14th in Big 12), picking apart KU.
Gabriel has surpassed this total in four of his seven starts this season and is currently averaging 304 passing yards per game. His numbers are slightly better in conference play (306.5 yards), which is impressive given that he’s faced Iowa State and Texas. The Longhorns rank 34th in success rate against the pass, and the Cyclones check in at 25th.
Gameflow will be important in this one, and all signs point to a shootout in Lawrence.
Judging by the line and total, the implied score of this game is Oklahoma 38, Kansas 28.
Kansas has already played in three Big 12 shootouts against BYU, UCF, and Oklahoma State. All three of those contests exceeded 64 points.
Aside from UCF, which prefers to run the ball, Kansas has allowed at least 325 passing yards to every opposing Big 12 team.
As long as KU holds up their end of the bargain and keeps things competitive through three quarters, Gabriel and the Sooners’ passing game will shine.
Pick: Gabriel More Than 295.5 Passing Yards (Play to 300.5)
Florida State vs. Wake Forest
Keon Coleman is the Seminoles' big-play threat. He averages over 15 yards per reception, and when Jordan Travis gives him opportunities, he delivers.
Against LSU, Clemson, and Syracuse, Coleman was targeted 31 times. He turned those opportunities into 23 receptions, 348 yards and six touchdowns.
So why is this total so low?
Florida State and Travis tend to forget they have an All-American gamebreaker on the perimeter. In games against Southern Miss, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Duke, they targeted him only 19 times, falling short of 63 receiving yards in all four games.
But what’s interesting is the old Keyshawn Johnson “Give Me The Damn Ball” angle.
Just as Johnson demanded more opportunities following games where he wasn’t heavily involved in the offensive game plan, the Florida State staff seems to quickly pivot to a Coleman-heavy approach following a down game for No. 4.
After the BC game (0 receptions), he broke out against Clemson (5/86/2). It was more of the same following his quiet game against Va Tech (3/22/0), when he torched Syracuse for 9/140/1.
How did Coleman do last week against Duke? He was only targeted five times, and he was held to two catches.
The offensive staff will stick to the trend and force-feed him this week against an overmatched Wake Forest secondary. The Demon Deacons have allowed 78 yards per game to ACC WR1s this season.
My projection for Coleman is sitting in the mid-70s.
Pick: Coleman More Than 63.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 68.5)
Georgia vs. Florida
The Brock Bowers targets have to go somewhere, folks, and McConkey is ready to be the beneficiary of those extra looks.
In his last game, McConkey nabbed four passes for 58 yards on a season-high five targets.
The Florida pass defense is solid, but it gives up chunk plays at an alarming rate. The Gators rank 129th nationally in Passing Explosiveness allowed.
Last season, when fully healthy, McConkey had at least one reception of 20+ yards in 11 of his 15 games. Now that he’s worked himself back into game shape following a back injury, he’s back to being a big-play threat. He hit an explosive for 31 yards against Vandy and looked like the 2022 version of himself two weeks ago.
I’m banking on him hitting at least one big play against the Gators on Saturday.
It also doesn't hurt that he is a top-notch human being. McConkey was recently named a finalist for the William V. Campbell Trophy. The honor is bestowed to a college football player with the best combination of on-field accomplishments, academic success and impact within their community. McConkey has a 3.85 GPA in finance at UGA’s Terry College of Business.
It's hard not to root for the guy.
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Pick: Ladd McConkey More Than 40.5 Receiving Yards
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