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Wilson: Week 7 CFB Projected Spreads and the Games I’m Looking to Bet on Sunday

Oct 07, 2018 8:36 AM EDT
Credit:

Julie Bennett-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Dillon

  • With Week 6 of college football in the books, let's take a look at my projected spreads every Week 7 game.
  • I also pick out a few games I'll immediately be looking to bet (and the numbers I'm targeting) when the spreads open on Sunday.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 7’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based off my College Football Power Ratings, which you can find here.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 7 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I’m Looking For

Georgia at LSU

Projected Spread: LSU +10.5
Number I Want: LSU +7 or better

My projected spread will differ from other power ratings systems, as I do not have LSU’s home-field advantage near as strong as others considering they have covered at home less than 50% over the past 10 years.

As for this game, Georgia still ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted sack rate, while its defense falls outside the top 80 in stuff rate and opportunity rate. LSU can keep this within a score.

Missouri at Alabama

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