Wilson: Projecting Week 5 College Football Point Spreads

Sep 23, 2018 6:53 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson uses his power ratings to project every Week 5 college football point spread.
  • Use the spreads against the opening lines when they're released on Sunday to find betting value.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 5’s college football matchups.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


Week 5 Point Spread Projections

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • Old Dominion’s victory over Virginia Tech is the biggest upset in program history. ODU is on hangover alert against an East Carolina team that beat North Carolina straight up in Week 2, and outgained South Florida with a cover in Week 4.
  • Trevor Lawrence adds another dimension to Clemson, and N’Kosi Perry has provided the same for Miami. The Canes have a Thursday night game with North Carolina, which is coming off an underdog outright victory over Pitt.

  • Off an overtime loss at Oklahoma, Army travels to Buffalo. The Bulls have revenge in this spot after a heartbreaking loss in 2017.
  • Don’t be fooled by the Florida victory over Tennessee.  The Vols gave up six turnovers to the Gators.  Mississippi State players have had this Florida game circled since the day Dan Mullen left Starkville.
  • Stanford travels to Notre Dame off an emotional comeback win against Oregon. Entering Week 4, the Irish ranked seventh in the nation in passes defensed, a stat that is a must need against the Cardinal jump-ball offense.
  • Texas comes off an emotional victory over TCU with travel to Kansas State. The Longhorns may have overlook to Oklahoma in Week 6.

  • Plenty of teams are on back-to back-travel. The list includes Nevada, South Alabama, Kent State, Army, Northern Illinois, South Carolina, Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida, Louisiana Tech, Stanford, Coastal Carolina, Charlotte, Pittsburgh and Rice.
  • Plenty of teams come off a bye week. They include UCLA, Colorado, California, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico, Northwestern, UAB, Utah, Boise State and Wyoming.

A Few Other Week 5 Notes

  • Virginia Tech quarterback Josh Jackson left the Old Dominion game with an ankle injury in the third quarter.  He is not expected to return in Week 5.
  • Arkansas and Texas A&M play on a neutral site (Arlington, Texas).
Credit:

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports. Notre Dame’s Jafar Armstrong

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
58.5
+8.5
58
-10
51.5
+15
50.5
-15
52
-18
52
+18
68
+13.5
68.5
+14
80
+2
81.5
+1.5
54
-3
53
+3
59
+3
58
+4
53.5
+3
53.5
-5
61
-17
59.5
-17
57
-7
57.5
+7
52
-24
52
-24.5
55.5
-14
55.5
-13.5
58.5
-18
58
-18
51
+17
51
-17.5
60.5
-25
59
-26
41
-14
40.5
+13.5
47.5
-2
47
-2.5
53.5
+8
53.5
+10.5
44
-13.5
44
-13.5
68
-3
67.5
+2.5