Wilson: Projecting Week 7 College Football Over/Unders

Oct 09, 2018 7:30 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson uses his metrics to project college football over/unders for Week 7.
  • Use the projections to find value when they're first released on Monday afternoon.

College football win totals are released early in the week and can see heavy movement because of weather, injury or scheme. This column serves as your first look at the projected totals for Week 7’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based on a mathematical projection of yards per play, plays per game, adjusted pace, and efficiency. The Action Network Power Ratings for point-spread purposes can be found here.

When the real totals are released (usually midafternoon on Mondays at Bookmaker and/or BetOnline), I’ll compare my totals to what oddsmakers have posted to find betting value before the odds move. Discrepancies in weather, injuries and standard/passing down run rate all play a factor with investment on a total.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 7 Over/Under Projections

Notes on Pace, Injury, and Weather

Oklahoma State at Kansas State

Projected Total: 57

Showers are in the forecast at 60% for the duration of the game with 10-mph winds. Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium orientation is such that winds usually blow from sideline to sideline.

Monitor the weather for these two teams struggling to have consistent offense.

Southern Miss at North Texas

Projected Total: 59

Weather will also be a factor in Denton, as winds are projected at 20-plus mph for the duration of the game. North Texas is a pass first offense that struggled to beat lowly UTEP in Week 6.

Baylor at Texas

Projected Total: 58.5

Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium also has a cross-wind orientation. Speeds will be over 15 mph for this game in Austin.

Ole Miss at Arkansas

Projected Total: 52.5

War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock will have 15-mph winds throughout the game in Fayetteville. Arkansas’ place-kicking ranks outside of the top 100 in the nation and should have a problem from any distance this Saturday.

Credit:

Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justice Hill

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
MSU
MICH
+6.5
47.5
+7.5
41
LSU
MSST
-6.5
44.5
-6.5
45.5
TEM
CIN
-3.5
48.5
-3.5
47.5
ECU
UCF
+24
64.5
+21.5
65
USF
CONN
-31
70
-32.5
69
WASH
COLO
-17
51
-17.5
50
TCU
OKLA
+7.5
61
+7.5
62
WSU
ORE
-2
66
-3
69
UK
VAN
-11.5
48
-12.5
46.5
TENN
BAMA
+28.5
58
+29
57.5
CLEM
NCST
-17
53.5
-17.5
57.5
IOWA
MD
-13.5
51.5
-9
44
PUR
OSU
+12
64.5
+12
69
WISC
ILL
-25.5
54.5
-24
57
IND
PSU
+13
62
+14.5
59.5