College Football Sharp Action, Model Projections & Expert Picks for Week 4: Texas vs. Texas Tech, Tennessee vs. South Carolina, More (Saturday, Sept. 26)

College Football Sharp Action, Model Projections & Expert Picks for Week 4: Texas vs. Texas Tech, Tennessee vs. South Carolina, More (Saturday, Sept. 26) article feature image
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Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Shi Smith

The first SEC weekend of the 2020 college football season brings with it plenty of value, though most of that value — according to our new PRO Report feature — has come via a different conference.

Three Big 12 games have been lighting up our signals throughout the week. Not to be outdone, though, one primetime SEC matchup caps off our Week 4 report.

Below you’ll find all the sharp action, big money, model projection edges and expert picks that have landed on the following matchups:

  • Kansas State vs. Oklahoma (12 p.m. ET, FOX)
  • West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
  • Texas vs. Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
  • Tennessee vs. South Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

Note: Odds, screenshots as of 6 p.m. ET Friday. 


Kansas State vs. Oklahoma PRO Report

Sharp bettors have taken a liking to the under in this noon ET Big 12 kickoff, and both history and our model’s projections agree with that call.


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Sharp Action

If someone told you that sharp action had hit a total that opened at 59 and was now at 60.5, it would be reasonable to guess that the sharps took the over. But comparing opening and current lines doesn’t always tell the whole story.

In this game for example, the pros didn’t find value on the under until it had risen to 61.5. Per Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, they then bought it back to 61, and hit it again to get books down to the current listing of 60.5.

Sharp Action edge: Under

PRO Systems

History suggests that sharps are on the right side, too (on top of fact that they have long track records of being on the right side to begin with). The reason?

Weather.

As of Friday afternoon, there’s enough wind expected in Norman to make this game a match for our Windy Unders PRO System, which has a 57% win rate for an 11% return on investment.

PRO Systems edge: Under

Model Projections

What’s more? Our model’s projections suggest that even though sharps have been moving this line back toward its opener, there’s still plenty of value to be had.

Our projected total for this game is 54.5.

Model Projections edge: Under

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West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State PRO Report

Same conference. Same state. Same bet. Same reasons …

… plus another indicator of sharp action, in the form of big bets.

Sharp Action

The sharp side has been far more obvious based on line movement in this game. Behind another pair of Sports Insights Bet Signals, this total has dropped from 55 to 51.5 even though 53% of bets have landed on the over.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

Time for that other sharp indicator I mentioned. Even though 53% of bettors are taking the over, 78% of actual money is landing on the under — meaning it’s drawing much bigger bets. And while big bets can technically come from anyone, they’re far more likely to come from folks who bet for a living — and those folks are far more likely to be sharps.

Big Money edge: Under

PRO Systems

If it’s windy in Norman, there’s a decent chance it’s going to be windy 80 miles away in Stillwater.

Sure enough, this game is expecting even more wind, and thus also fits into our Windy Unders PRO System (57% win rate, 11% ROI).

PRO Systems edge: Under

Model Projections

And once again, even though this number has fallen somewhat significantly from its opener, our model still suggests there’s value to be had on the under.

We’re projecting the total all the way down at 39.8.

Model Projections edge: Under


Texas vs. Texas Tech PRO Report

Onto the spreads.

Texas is giving 17.5 points to its in-state rival Saturday afternoon, and according to sharps, as well as our model’s projections, that’s too many.

[Try PRO for FREE to track all the sharp action hitting the Week 4 slate.]

Sharp Action

Four SI Bet Signals have hit the Red Raiders, confirming four instances of pro action taking the points. It is worth noting though, that all four moves came at lines greater than +17, and a bit of sharp action has hit Texas at shorter lines.

Sharp Action edge: Texas Tech

Big Money

Further solidifying the underdog as the sharper side, Tech’s 33% backing has accounted for 48% of money hitting this spread, again revealing the opinion of the higher spenders.

Big Money edge: Texas Tech

Model Projections

As for why the pros are happily taking the points, perhaps their projections are more in line with ours.

Per Collin Wilson’s projected Week 4 spreads, Texas should be only a two-touchdown favorite, giving value to the underdog, especially beyond the key number of 17.

Model Projections edge: Texas Tech


Tennessee vs. South Carolina PRO Report

Coming out of the SEC is another spread that’s been deemed too high.

Tennessee is now laying 3.5 points over South Carolina in Columbia, and that’s been enough to catch the attention of sharps, trigger an edge from model projections and attract our college football betting experts.

Sharp Action

This line wasn’t always beyond a field goal, but ever since it’s reached that point, there’s been no question as to which side sharps have taken a liking to.

Five SI Bet Signals have hit South Carolina, the four most recent of which have come at lines greater than a field goal.

Sharp Action edge: South Carolina

Big Money

Serving as another sign of that sharp action has been the 69% of bets that have landed on the Gamecocks despite just their 36% backing.

Big Money edge: South Carolina

Model Projections

Our projected spread for this game is much closer to a coin-flip, with South Carolina pegged as just a 1-point dog. Given that projection, anything more than a field goal becomes a valuable bet on the home team.

Model Projections edge: South Carolina

Top Experts

Two of our top college football experts have joined the sharps on this journey, taking the points with South Carolina. You can all our experts’ Week 4 picks by following them in the Action App.

Top Experts edge: South Carolina

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