CFB Sharp Betting Report: Pros Hit 3 Saturday Games, Including N.C. State-Louisville
Christopher Hanwinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Louisville
- Pro bettors are finding value on Saturday's slate, and among the three games they're hitting hardest is Alabama vs. Mississippi State (12 p.m. ET, ESPN).
- They've also impacted lines in West Virginia vs. Kansas State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) and NC State vs. Louisville (7:30 p.m. ET).
- The tools at The Action Network reveal how they're playing all three games.
Given their playoff implications and close spreads, it’s safe to assume that Georgia-Auburn and Minnesota-Iowa will be among the most heavily bet games on Saturday. Both are currently among the top four in that respect.
Also in that mix: a historical Ohio State vs. Rutgers spread, as well as a rebound spot for Alabama against Mississippi State, and according to our tools, the latter has been arguably biggest recipient of sharp action of any Saturday game.
In addition to that SEC matchup in Starkville, wiseguys have found value on in two other conferences: a Big 12 showdown between West Virginia and Kansas State (3:30 p.m. ET) and a primetime ACC battle featuring NC State and Louisville (7:30 p.m. ET).
Odds as of Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Alabama @ Mississippi State
12 p.m. ET | ESPN
Alabama’s first loss of the season doesn’t seem to be turning any bettors away from the Tide this week. In fact, not only is Bama attracting the majority of spread bettors, it’s taken in the highest percentage of tickets (90%) of any team on Saturday’s slate.
So how in the world did this spread drop from Bama -21 to -18.5?
Sure, Tua Tagovailoa is a game-time decision, but it’s not as though his status for the game was ever certain. Instead, it’s been sharp bettors on Mississippi State that have convinced oddsmakers that their initial line was too high.
A total of 12 Sports Insights Bet Signals — triggered when sharp action causes market-wide line movement — have hit the Bulldogs, to just three on Alabama, confirming that the line movement against the popular side has been a direct result of smart money.
Sharp angle: Mississippi State (moved from +21 to +18.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
West Virginia @ Kansas State
3:30 p.m. ET| ESPN
Even coming off a 3-point loss at Texas, this season has been an impressive one for Kansas State, which now sits at 6-3. It’s been even more impressive for K-State’s bettors, who’ve enjoyed a 7-2 against-the-spread record to this point.
The same can’t be said for West Virginia, which enters this game at 3-6 both straight up and against the spread.
Understandably, the Wildcats opened as significant favorites (-15) and have taken on a heavy public backing (76% of tickets). Perhaps not so understandably, that spread is now down to the key number of -14.
Once again, sharps have been able to convince oddsmakers to bring this line to an even two touchdowns, as they’ve triggered three Bet Signals on West Virginia.
Also pointing toward the Mountaineers being the sharp side, their 24% backing has generated 54% of actual money wagered. That means bigger bettors, who are more likely to be pros, are on the dog.
Sharp angle: West Virginia (moved from +15 to +14) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
NC State @ Louisville
7:30 p.m. ET | ACC Network
Comparing opening numbers to the current lines is often a good starting point when it comes to picking out sharp action — both of the games above serve as good examples. It doesn’t always tell the complete story, though, such as in this matchup, which is sitting at Louisville -3.5 — the same number at which it opened at most books.
A full look at the line history, however, reveals that this line was up at -4.5, and even -5 at some shops, earlier in the week, thanks in large part to 73% of bettors on the home team. So for oddsmakers to revert back to the opening line, there’s a good chance that sharps were playing some sort of role.
Twelve SI Bet Signals on the Wolfpack confirm just that, though it’s worth noting that only one of those 12 moves came at a number inside of +4.
Sharp angle: NC State (moved from +4.5 to +3.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]