College Football Sharp Report: 5 Games Pros Are Betting, Including USC vs. BYU
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kedon Slovis
- The Week 3 college football slate is one only a bettor could love, and sharps certainly do love it.
- Check out the five betting plays drawing the most sharp action Saturday, including USC-BYU and Oklahoma State-Tulsa (both kicking off at 3:30 p.m. ET).
The Week 3 college football slate has taken a bit of heat from casual college football fans. Bettors looking for a battle of two Top 25 teams are out of luck Saturday, but sharps, well, they’re licking their chops.
Plenty of the 60+ games kicking off this weekend have drawn action from wiseguys, but five in particular stand out as clear, one-sided sharp plays.
Odds as of Friday at 1 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Eastern Michigan @ Illinois
12 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
The Illini opened as 8-point favorites in this matchup, and their 2-0 start has helped convinced 64% of bettors to lay the points against a MAC squad in Eastern Michigan.
That 64% backing, however, has generated just 29% of actual money being wagered.
That means the bigger bets — much bigger ones, in this case — are landing on the Eagles. And where there are bigger bets, there are often sharper bets.
Sports Insights Bet Signals confirm that professionals have been backing the dog, as they’ve triggered four steam and reverse line moves on EMU since this line opened. That — paired with the monetary liability — has convinced oddsmakers to drop this line down to an even touchdown (Illinois -7).
It’s worth noting that each of the four sharp moves came at a number greater than +7, so it’s not been made clear yet whether wiseguys will continue to hammer the points and further shrink this spread.
Sharp angle: Eastern Michigan (moved from +8 to +7)
Florida Atlantic @ Ball State
2 p.m. ET | ESPN+
The bet-vs.-money story is a similar one in this game, though this time it’s taking place on the total.
Only 32% of bettors are taking the under, which shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. Of the 79 Lane Kiffin-coached games in our Bet Labs database, 72 have attracted the majority of bets to the over.
However, the minority here is once again a loud one, as the 32% of under tickets have accounted for 62% of money wagered on the total.
Per our Bet Signals, one steam move hit the over at 66 late Monday night, but since then it’s been all under action from the pros. Five signals have been triggered on the under since Tuesday, at lines ranging from 67.5 to 65.
The total now sits at 64.5.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 67.5 to 64.5)
USC @ BYU
3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Of the games attracting Saturday’s smart money, this is undoubtedly the most intriguing matchup.
The Cougars continue their journey through the Power 5 by hosting an undefeated USC team, which now has a little 24 next to its name after a 25-point win over Stanford.
After opening at +5, BYU is now down to just a 3.5/4-point dog despite a 66% backing of the ranked Trojans. And in continuing with the theme of this week’s sharp plays, BYU’s bettors have been of the bigger variety, but this time they aren’t producing a majority of spread money (47%).
Still, that discrepancy is noteworthy, and one could argue (as I would) that the line dropping is all the more significant in this case, since it’s not a result of a monetary need. Instead it’s a pure show of respect for the bettors who backed BYU.
Twelve (!!) steam and reverse line moves have triggered on the Cougars since opening, with the lowest number hit being +4. There was one instance of sharp buyback on USC at -3.5 on Wednesday night, but everything since has been on the home dog.
Sharp angle: BYU (moved from +5 to +4)
Georgia Southern @ Minnesota
3:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
Sitting at a consensus 45, this total is among the lowest on the Week 3 slate. It wasn’t always, though. In fact, the earliest books to market had this number up as high as 51.5. That, as you could’ve probably guessed, was before sharps got their hands on it.
Forty-seven percent of tickets accounting for 60% of dollars have taken the under, which has drawn five steam moves since this number was released.
Most recently, sharps hit the under at 46, which brought the market to its current stop.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 51.5 to 45)
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Attracting 86% of bettors, Oklahoma State is among the most popular of Saturday’s spread bets. Opening at -13.5, that support — which has accounted for 81% of money — has put sportsbooks in a tough spot, as they’ve been pummeled with professional Tulsa action every time they’ve bumped line to -14.
Still, they’ve had no choice but to raise the spread on several occasions to level out their liability, and some are even posting a two-touchdown spread currently.
Remember, sharps bet numbers, not teams, and in this case they’ve made it crystal clear that the number they need to feel good about a Tulsa bet is +14.
Ten SI Bet Signals have hit the Golden Hurricane, and every single one has come at +14 or higher.
Sharp angle: Tulsa (bouncing between +13.5 and +14)