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The Elon Phoenix take on the Stanford Cardinal in Palo Alto, California, on Saturday, Oct. 17. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network Extra.
Stanford is favored by -35.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. Elon, meanwhile, enters as a +35.5 underdog and is +3000 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
Here’s my Elon vs. Stanford prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17.
Elon vs Stanford Prediction
- Elon vs. Stanford Pick: Stanford -34.5
My Stanford vs. Elon best bet is on the Cardinal to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Elon vs Stanford Odds
| Elon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+35.5 -110 | 56.5 -106o / -114u | +3000 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-35.5 -110 | 56.5 -106o / -114u | -10000 |
- Elon vs Stanford point spread: Stanford -35.5 (-110), Elon +35.5 (-110)
- Elon vs Stanford over/under: 56.5 (-106o / -114u)
- Elon vs Stanford moneyline: Elon +3000, Stanford -10000
Elon vs Stanford College Football Preview
Elon Phoenix Betting Preview: Getting Back Their General
Elon comes into this matchup 4-3, having just been blanked at home by Wofford on homecoming by a score of 16-0.
The offense has struggled much of the way this season, as the Phoenix have rotated three quarterbacks due to injury and poor play. Brady Stober started the year at quarterback but was hurt in the second game of the season against Davidson.
He returned last week against Wofford and completed just 6-of-21 passes for 40 yards with a pair of interceptions.
Backup QB Elijah Guttman threw for 513 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions in three starts against Sacred Heart, Maine and New Hampshire.
Third-string QB TJ Crews IV has seen action as well, completing 60% of his passes while getting the start against Rhode Island.
Stober is now back and figures to get the call, but don’t be surprised if all three of these players throw the ball for an Elon team that doesn't have an explosive passing attack.
Kamerin McDowell-Moore is the dude in the running back room, and he has run for 916 yards and six touchdowns on 6.7 yards per carry this season. The rest of the team has just 271 yards spread out among 14 ball-carriers.
Kenaz McMillian and Jaedon Alford are the top two receivers who have combined to catch 28 passes for 509 yards. No other player on the team has more than 10 catches through seven games.
The defense has done a decent job generating activity behind the line of scrimmage, as Elon has registered 13 sacks and 40 tackles for loss this season.
The pass coverage metrics look decent, but the competition has to be considered. Elon has faced a non-DI team, Davidson of the non-scholarship Pioneer Football League, Rhode Island without its star quarterback and three offenses that can't pass.
The one offense that could pass, New Hampshire, threw for 300 yards against the Phoenix. This defense is really going to be out of its element against Stanford.
Stanford Cardinal Betting Preview: Hitting a Snag
Stanford has been such a disappointment on so many levels this season. A Week 0 win was followed up by a hapless home performance against Miami on a Friday night prime-time spot.
After an early bye week that gave the team a chance to get healthy, the Trees were thrashed on the road by Duke.
Stanford has lost back-to-back games against Wake Forest and Notre Dame by a combined score of 115-10, and I wonder about the mental state of the locker room after these two humiliating defeats.
In its two victories this season, both at home, quarterback Davis Warren has looked great. Against Hawaii and Georgia Tech, Warren has completed 63% of his passes for 706 yards with a 7:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Stanford has three explosive receivers in Nico Brown, Caden High and Benji Blackburn, and I wouldn’t be stunned if the ground game got going with Micah Ford and Sedrick Irvin.
The Cardinal won't have many more opportunities to put a massive point total on the board this season, so I expect this offense to have a little bit of fun here.
Stanford’s defense has been off-the-charts bad this season, and the numbers are eye-popping. In five games against P4 competition, the defense has given up 513 yards per game with an average of 7.4 yards per play given up.
The stop unit is non-competitive against ACC competition, as the front generates very little pressure without delivering stops on third down or in the red zone.
While this scenario is likely to remain consistent the rest of the season as Stanford battles through five more ACC games after this homecoming game, Elon won't pose the same issues as the teams that have come before them.
Elon vs Stanford Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Stanford listed as a 35.5-point favorite in the contest with a total set at 56.5. I'm going to wait to see where this line goes, but I'll seek to play Stanford at -34.5 or better.
Elon isn't a strong team this season, and the strength of opponents must be considered. The Phoenix have played a very weak schedule at the FCS level where every opponent has been ranked in the lower half of my FCS power ratings.
The Phoenix are coming off back-to-back losses against Wofford and New Hampshire, and the offense has struggled with consistency most of the season.
I'm concerned about what happens in this game for Elon if Stanford gets up early.
The Phoenix rely on the ground attack, with McDowell-Moore handling the overwhelming majority of the rushing attempts. This team can't afford to lose him due to injury.
With injuries at quarterback already sustained this season, I wonder how much McDowell-Moore will play in this game.
Elon doesn't have a strong passing game, and the Phoenix are converting third downs at just a 24% clip, going 3-of-37 over its last three games.
Sustaining drives and finding success through the air aren't likely options in this one, so the path to scoring is limited.
Elon’s defense has historically been solid out of the CAA, but this year’s defense is a notch down from what we've seen in the past despite some of the defensive metrics looking OK.
The quality of offenses faced makes the defense look like it has the fortitude necessary to match up with an FBS opponent, but I don't believe it does.
I expect very little pressure on Warren. He should command scoring drives early and often in this game. This is an opportunity for Stanford to have a little bit of fun for the last time this season.
The target line is -34.5, and I will log a play in the Action App as soon as we see that line flash.
Pick: Stanford -34.5
