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Texas A&M vs Florida Odds, Prediction, Pick | Saturday SEC Betting Guide

Texas A&M vs Florida Odds, Prediction, Pick | Saturday SEC Betting Guide article feature image
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Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Richardson (Florida)

  • The Texas A&M Aggies host the Florida Gators in Saturday SEC college football action.
  • Odds have been moving significantly after it was reported that Texas A&M had a flu outbreak, as the Aggies went from -3.5 to -1.5 in a matter of hours.
  • Check out Cooper Van Tatenhove's full betting guide and pick for Texas A&M vs Florida below.

Texas A&M vs Florida Odds

Saturday, Nov. 5
12 p.m. ET
ESPN
Texas A&M Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-110
52.5
-110o / -110u
-126
Florida Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-110
52.5
-110o / -110u
+105
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The outlook for Texas A&M and head coach Jimbo Fisher continues to decline after the Aggies lost their fourth game in a row. Their most recent defeat — 31-28 to Ole Miss — came despite owning a heavily advantageous situational spot.

Despite it being their seventh game in a row, Ole Miss was able to rush for 390 yards on the ground against A&M.

This lack of ability to stop the run will once again be tested against the visiting Florida Gators, who rank fifth in the country in EPA/Rush.

Will Texas A&M’s newly-cemented starting quarterback Conner Weigman be able to improve the Aggies’ offense enough to keep up with the Gators? Or will Texas A&M’s offense continue to be unable to make up for the disappointing defensive performances?

Let’s dive in.


With every loss the conversation around Fisher and the A&M program continues to get more dire.

After a home loss to Ole Miss, the conversation regarding Fisher’s buyout has never been more prevalent. Saturday’s matchup with Florida presents an opportunity to either add fuel to the fire, or start an effort to right the ship.

Much of A&M’s struggles this season have come as a result of its inconsistency on offense outside of running back Devon Achane.

The Aggies have started three different quarterbacks, most recently being the freshman Weigman.

Weigman was able to put together the most efficient quarterback performance for A&M so far this year, throwing for 338 yards and four touchdowns against Ole Miss.

With the success that Florida will have on the ground in this matchup, A&M will need a similar performance from Weigman on Saturday.

Much of the success that Weigman was able to find against Ole Miss came through their utilization of RPO packages. Florida’s 3-3-5 defensive scheme will be better equipped to limit the effectiveness of these packages.

Overall, Billy Napier and this Florida defense will look to preserve the inefficiency that has plagued A&M all year.

The Aggies rank 100th in net points per drive, getting just 1.9 points per offensive possession. Additionally, this results in them being outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives.

In order to keep pace with an explosive Gators offense, the Aggies will need to improve on these rankings dramatically.


Florida comes into College Station looking to bounce back from a 42-20 loss to undefeated Georgia.

The big storyline for the Gators this week has been the dismissal of defensive end Brenton Cox.

Although a key part of the Gators’ defense, it has been said that Cox was a problem in the locker room, leading Florida to believe he will be an addition by subtraction.

Initially, the loss will be a hit for a defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate, Line Yards and Havoc. The unit allows teams 3.3 Line Yards per rush.

However poor these numbers are against the run, A&M has shown that its offense is incapable of taking advantage of its opponents’ weak spots defensively.

Last week against an Ole Miss defense that is outside the top 90 in Line Yards, the Aggies were only able to rack up 142 yards on the ground.

This lack of production can be somewhat attributed to improved play at the quarterback position, but speaks to a lack of offensive efficiency that has resulted in four straight losses.

Additionally, the Gators have been great defensively at limiting explosive plays on the ground, allowing teams just a 1.02 Explosiveness ranking rushing. These type of chunk plays would be crucial to jumpstarting an Aggies offense that ranks 89th overall in Success Rate.

Offensively, Florida has to love the matchup it will be presented in College Station.

The Gators have climbed to top-five in the country in EPA per Rush as a result of averaging 5.93 YPA.

Stopping the run has been a struggle for A&M all year, which is reflected in the Aggies being ranked outside the top 80 in both Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.

Teams that have had success against the Gators this year have been effective at making them one-dimensional through the air. A&M, to this point in the season, has shown no ability to be able accomplish this task defensively.

Look for the Gators to be the fifth team in a row to simply outgun the Aggies offensively.


Texas A&M vs Florida Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Florida match up statistically:

Florida Offense vs Texas A&M Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 70 94
Line Yards 26 87
Pass Success 94 12
Pass Blocking** 31 63
Havoc 34 71
Finishing Drives 81 12
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas A&M Offense vs Florida Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 45 116
Line Yards 70 102
Pass Success 97 108
Pass Blocking** 118 72
Havoc 84 124
Finishing Drives 72 103
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 62 71
PFF Coverage 69 69
SP+ Special Teams 48 44
Seconds per Play 26.7 (77) 27.3 (88)
Rush Rate 54.8% (56) 45.6% (111)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Texas A&M vs Florida Betting Pick

The downfall for A&M this year has been its offense’s inability to match the production of its opponents.

Saturday presents another matchup in which the Aggies’ defensive liability will be exploited.

Florida, which has a Rush Rate of 54.8%, will take advantage of an A&M defense that has allowed over 40% in terms of Rushing Success Rate.

Additionally, look for Florida to be able to outpace the Aggies’ offense through its ability to score quickly. The Gators have an overall offensive Explosiveness of 1.53, which will be a problem for an Aggies defense that has allowed a 1.29 rating to its opponents.

Until A&M is able to drastically change its efficiency on offense, back the road underdog Gators to keep A&M’s losing streak going.

Pick: Florida +3.5 (Play to +1)

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