Texas A&M vs Auburn Odds & Predictions: Betting Value on Tigers
Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Auburn quarterback Robby Ashford.
Texas A&M vs Auburn Odds
|Texas A&M Odds|
-11o / -105u
-115o / -105u
Something has to give on Saturday night in Jordan-Hare Stadium when a pair of SEC West teams battle it out to avoid dropping to last place in the division and keep their bowl hopes alive.
If you look at the standings, you will notice Texas A&M and Auburn are essentially mirrors. Both teams have lost five straight games and sit at 3-6 overall with a 1-5 conference record.
Will home-field advantage ultimately decide this matchup between two teams that have combined to go 0-6 on the road in 2022? Let's take a closer look.
Jimbo Fisher seemingly has no solutions for the continued offensive problems in College Station. That side of the ball has been extremely inefficient, ranking right around average when adjusted for schedule. That's very poor for a team that had expectations of competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Injuries along the offensive line and to the team's most explosive weapon in Ainias Smith haven't done any favors for this very outdated offensive scheme.
Additionally, the use of three different quarterbacks certainly hasn't helped in the continuity department. The hope is freshman Conner Weigman can jump-start the offense and give the 12th Man some optimism heading into next season.
Weigman, who's expected to make his second career start, had a promising first start against Ole Miss. He finished 28-of-44 for 344 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. That's something to build on.
Defensively, Texas A&M has been solid but not elite. The Aggies still rank right around 25th nationally, per my numbers adjusted for opponent. However, they seemingly miss the adjustments and run fits of defensive coordinator Mike Elko.
While the experienced secondary has mostly done its job, the run defense has been gashed all season. The talented but inexperienced front seven simply hasn't lived up to expectations.
It's been a strange year for Auburn, which recently parted ways with former head coach Bryan Harsin. The Tigers named former star running back Cadillac Williams as the new interim coach. He has seemingly brought the necessary energy to rejuvenate a lifeless locker room and fed-up fan base.
Handicapping the offense is pretty straightforward. The Tigers have no passing game to speak of, ranking 125th in EPA per Pass. This is a run-heavy offense that's completely reliant on moving the chains on the ground with a very good stable of backs, led by Tank Bigsby, and mobile quarterback Robby Ashford.
Conversely, it's the opposite story on the other side of the ball. The Auburn defense has excelled at slowing down opposing aerial attacks, even ranking higher than Texas A&M in Pass Success Rate. However, the rush defense has been porous, to say the least.
Opponents have continued to increase their season-long rush rates and have been rewarded for doing so against an Auburn defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
Texas A&M vs Auburn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Auburn match up statistically:
Texas A&M Offense vs. Auburn Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Auburn Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||44||65|
|Seconds per Play||26.4 (66)||26.5 (70)|
|Rush Rate||44.4% (115)||58.0% (37)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Texas A&M vs Auburn Betting Pick
It's another week of fading Texas A&M for me.
I just don't know where the Aggies stand mentally after five straight losses with all of their preseason goals long gone. Multiple incidents of player suspensions are not great signs for the state of the locker room.
They still have only two victories over FBS teams this year:
- Miami: This victory looks much worse than it did at the time. Plus, Miami actually had the better statistical day (392-264 yards) but just shot itself in the foot too many times.
- Arkansas: The Aggies should've lost if not for a fluky 99-yard fumble return and a missed game-winning field goal attempt from Arkansas.
In addition to a number of key injuries, they've recently dealt with a major flu outbreak, which could have lingering effects this week.
Meanwhile, I loved what I saw from Auburn last week in the head-coaching debut of Williams.
The Tigers had a completely different energy from start to finish, feeding off Williams, who seemingly lived and died with every play on the sidelines. I think that continues for this rejuvenated locker room that clearly had issues with former head coach Bryan Harsin.
The staff also had to deal with a short week of preparation in new roles with an unfamiliar playbook they were even trying to decipher during last week's game. They should be much better prepared this week and potentially have a few new wrinkles that aren't on film. I personally expect many more Ashford-designed runs.
Additionally, this is a great matchup for the Auburn offense, which needs to have success on the ground in order to sustain drives. It can do that against a vulnerable Texas A&M run defense that sits outside the top 75 in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
The loss of starting right tackle Austin Troxell does hurt a bit, but Auburn should still find holes.
The Aggie defense also ranks 97th in Standard Down Line Yards and 121st in Passing Downs Sack Rate. That's a troubling combination.
Last week, Florida became the latest team to gash the Aggies on the ground, eclipsing 300 yards at an average of 6.5 yards per clip. Even Miami had success running against Texas A&M, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Against all other FBS teams, the Canes have averaged 3.1 yards per carry.
On the other side of the ball, A&M has a much more pass-heavy offense, which plays into the hands of Auburn's strengths.
We will see if Weigman can recreate what we saw in his first career start. It will be a much tougher task in a hostile environment against an opponent that now has film on the freshman.
The Tigers also likely have positive regression coming their way to end the season in regards to turnovers and red zone efficiency.
For what it's worth, since 2005, Auburn is the most-profitable short home favorite (3.5 or less) in conference games at 7-1 ATS, covering by over a touchdown per game. Also, underdogs on five- or six-game losing streaks are just 104-145-3 (41.8%) since 2005.
I'll take the re-energized home team laying a short price in a decent matchup against a potentially lifeless road team.