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Florida-Mississippi State Betting Guide: Familiarity Will Help Each Defense

Sep 28, 2018 4:40 PM EDT

Florida-Mississippi State Betting Pick, Odds

  • Odds: Mississippi State -7
  • Over/Under: 50
  • Time: 6 p.m. ET, Saturday
  • TV Channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


Believe it or not, these two programs will meet for the first time since 2010, and it couldn’t come at a better time from an entertainment perspective.

Head coach Dan Mullen and his staff return to Starkville on the other sideline after jumping to Florida this winter. The cow bells should be louder than usual this weekend.

Market Moves for Florida-Mississippi State

By Danny Donahue

Florida has been the more popular side in this one, attracting 57% of bets and 74% of dollars. The line has moved up and down, but it settled at Gators +7 after opening there.

Bettors are also taking a liking to the under, which has drawn 72% of bets and 60% of dollars. Still, the total has fallen from 52.5 to 50 at Bookmaker.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

Mississippi State’s surprising loss to Kentucky as a 9.5-point favorite dropped the Bulldogs from 14th to 23rd in the AP Poll. Since 2005, ranked teams that lost their previous game have struggled to cover the next week going 231-277-15 (45.5%) ATS.

By Evan Abrams

Mississippi State scored just seven points in a 28-7 road loss to Kentucky last week. Many are expecting the Bulldogs to bounce back as touchdown favorites at home vs. Florida this week.

Bettors watch out. Since 2005, teams that score 10 points or fewer as a favorite in their previous game and play at home the next week are just 76-97-3 ATS (-25.1 units), including 69-86-2 ATS (-20.6 units) in that spot coming off a straight-up loss, too.

Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 

By Stuckey

Can Mississippi State be more disciplined?

Penalties have killed the Bulldogs so far this year, especially in their loss in Lexington. They have committed 37 penalties for 318 yards — an average of 79.5 yards per game (117th in nation).

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Moorhead and Dan Mullen

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