Florida State vs Miami Odds, Predictions: Bet This ACC Favorite
Lance King/Getty Images. Pictured: Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis.
Florida State vs Miami Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 54 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 54 -110o / -110u | +250 |
Florida State and Miami have faced off 66 times dating back to 1951. This storied rivalry used to see both teams as top contenders in the country but has faded over the last few years as both programs have taken a step back from their previous successes.
Before Florida State won this game last season by a score of 31-28, Miami had won the last previous matchups, breaking Florida State’s streak of seven straight right before that.
Neither one of these teams is likely in contention for a conference championship, but both teams may need to win this game as they work toward bowl eligibility.
Miami sits at 4-4, having lost four of its last six games. This has been a disappointing year for the Hurricanes after starting out the season ranked 16th in the AP Poll.
Mario Cristobal’s first season in Coral Gables has not gone as planned, largely due to the underperformance of his offense. If the U is going to be restored, Cristobal will need to start winning more high-profile games and rivalry games, such as this one.
Florida State, meanwhile, is sitting at 5-3 and has performed in line with most of its preseason expectations after entering the season with a win total of 6.5.
The Seminoles have come up just short in games against the top teams in the conference, losing in close games to Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson. Outside of those games, though, Mike Norvell’s squad has been impressive on offense and looks to be a solid team overall.
A win this weekend would help this program keep moving in the right direction, while a bad loss could potentially bring up questions about Norvell’s job security.
Seminoles Offense
Florida State’s offense has had a big year behind the arm and legs of quarterback Jordan Travis. The Seminoles rank 24th in Offensive Success Rate and are ranked 39th by SP+.
Their passing game sits 29th in PPA, 24th in explosiveness, fifth in PFF passing grade and 44th in Success Rate.
The running game is where FSU has really excelled this season. Florida State ranks fourth in rushing PPA, 17th in Rushing Success Rate and 13th in rushing explosiveness. It's graded as the 11th-best running team by PFF.
Seminoles Defense
This defense has been successful at preventing long plays, but that's about it.
The Seminoles rank 64th in Rushing Success Rate and 88th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. However, because of their ability to limit big plays, they rank 52nd in passing PPA allowed.
I don’t have a ton of faith in this defense, but it's have played a tougher schedule of opposing offenses. Miami’s offense will likely not pose too big of a threat unless it's figured something out since its poor performances a week ago.
If the Seminoles can keep preventing big plays as they have all season, Miami won’t be able to have much success on offense.
Hurricanes Offense
Tyler Van Dyke was not producing anywhere near the level he was last season, but since he went down against Duke, things have gotten even worse for this Miami offense.
On the season, the Hurricanes rank 49th in Passing Success Rate and fourth in Rushing Success Rate. Most of their scoring drives have been long this season, as the Canes rank 124th in offensive explosiveness, with the second-least explosive run game in FBS despite their overall success.
Van Dyke was already struggling against Duke, but fellow quarterback Jake Garcia didn't offer much of an improvement. Garcia averaged -0.20 EPA per play against the Blue Devils and then followed that up last weekend against Virginia with a -0.18 EPA per dropback performance.
Miami scored just six points in regulation against the Cavaliers and ended up winning in the quadruple overtime despite not scoring a touchdown all game.
Hurricanes Defense
The defense for Miami hasn’t been bad this season, but it does have one Achilles’ heel that may end up being its ultimate downfall in this game.
Miami’s defense ranks 17th in Passing Success Rate but just 55th in passing PPA allowed. The reason for this? Explosive plays. Miami ranks 129th in FBS in passing explosiveness allowed.
This has been a major issue for the Canes this season and it may present itself again this weekend against an explosive FSU passing attack.
As a whole, Miami’s defense is strong and may give Florida State some issues, as it ranks 25th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 17th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Florida State vs Miami Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Miami match up statistically:
Florida State Offense vs. Miami Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 17 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 94 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 37 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Miami Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 88 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 57 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 104 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 67 | 115 |
| PFF Coverage | 92 | 6 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 124 | 5 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.4 (73) | 25.4 (43) |
| Rush Rate | 53.4% (65) | 47.2% (104) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Florida State vs Miami Betting Pick
The Miami offense is perplexing because the run game has been uber-successful this season but is completely inept when it comes to generating explosive plays.
Florida State’s best attribute on defense is its propensity for suppressing big plays, so I think it will have a decent showing defensively.
Miami’s defense is strong, but I think this Florida State offense is still very underrated. I doubted it in my game preview last week, and it scored more than I thought it would against Georgia Tech.
I’m not going to make this mistake two weeks in a row. These two teams are headed in different directions right now, and I like the Seminoles to take care of business in this rivalry game.
Pick: Florida State -7.5 or Better |
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