Miami vs Georgia Tech Odds & Picks: Bet the Under in ACC Clash

Miami vs Georgia Tech Odds & Picks: Bet the Under in ACC Clash article feature image

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Garcia (Miami)

Miami vs Georgia Tech Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
3:30 p.m. ET
Miami Odds
-110o / -110u
Georgia Tech Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

After being ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, Miami has fallen from grace and is having another disappointing season. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is injured and the offense is barely limping along.

Georgia Tech started off the year rough but has clawed back to 4-5, the same record as Miami. The winner of this game will put themselves just one win from bowl eligibility, while the loser will need to win out to get there.

With two backup quarterbacks and inefficient offenses, there likely won't be many fireworks in this game.

Miami Hurricanes

Hurricanes Offense

Miami’s offense has been downright atrocious since Tyler Van Dyke went down, but the Hurricanes were also struggling a bit before that.

In their past two games against Virginia and Florida State, the Hurricanes managed to score only 17 total points, despite playing four overtimes against the Cavaliers.

By just pure success rate numbers, Miami has one of the best rushing offenses in the country as they rank fifth in Rushing Success Rate. However, the Hurricanes run the ball at only the 103rd-highest rate in the country and are 129th in rushing explosiveness. 

Through the air, they have similar issues. Miami ranks 59th in passing success rate, but just 95th in PPA and 107th in explosiveness. At some point you have to be able to generate explosive plays if you want to consistently put points on the board.

Hurricanes Defense

Without adjusting for the opponent, Miami’s defense looks fairly strong. It's 25th in overall Success Rate, 33rd against the run and 26th against the pass. However, SP+ ranks them as just the 62nd-best defense as it has faced a fairly easy schedule of opposing offenses.

The main vulnerability this unit has had is allowing big passing plays. Miami ranks 130th in the country in passing explosiveness allowed.

This may not end up being an issue against a Georgia Tech team that hasn’t been explosive through the air, but it may be something to keep an eye on.

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Yellow Jackets Offense

Georgia Tech started the season as one of the worst teams in FBS and eventually fired head coach Geoff Collins. Since Collins' departure, the Yellow Jackets are 2-3 with a couple of close losses to their credit.

Quarterback Jeff Sims has been banged up lately as he suffered a sprained foot against Virginia three weeks ago and has missed each of the past two games. His status for this weekend remains up in the air.

Zach Pyron has been the main replacement for Sims. He hasn’t been overly impressive this season, averaging -0.07 EPA per dropback.

Last weekend against Virginia Tech, Pyron had a 1st percentile EPA per dropback figure. Sims hasn’t been great this season himself, so there won’t be a huge downgrade at the quarterback position if he isn’t able to play.

This year, the Yellow Jackets’ offense ranks 127th in Success Rate and 103rd by SP+. They haven’t been good at moving the ball by any method as they are 121st in Passing Success Rate and 125th in Rushing Success Rate.

Yellow Jackets Defense

This Georgia Tech defense hasn’t been great, but at times they have been just good enough to keep the Yellow Jackets in games. They rank 87th in both SP+ and in Success Rate.

The main strength of this defense is its ability to stop the pass.

The Yellow Jackets rank 67th in success rate against the pass, but are 35th in PPA and 36th in passing explosiveness allowed. This has helped the defense be one of the best teams in the country at keeping opponents out of the end zone. Georgia Tech ranks 17th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

Miami doesn’t run at a high rate so this may not come to pass, but Georgia Tech does against the run. The Yellow Jackets are 109th in success rate and 111th in PPA against the run. This is where Miami should attack, but it remains to be seen what Mario Cristobal will end up doing.

Miami vs Georgia Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Georgia Tech match up statistically:

Miami Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
Rush Success5109
Line Yards47121
Pass Success5967
Pass Blocking**5699
Finishing Drives10217
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Georgia Tech Offense vs. Miami Defense
Rush Success12533
Line Yards8151
Pass Success12126
Pass Blocking**12414
Finishing Drives11349
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling12096
PFF Coverage1366
SP+ Special Teams589
Seconds per Play26.0 (55)25.3 (42)
Rush Rate48.5% (96)53.6% (65)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Miami vs Georgia Tech Betting Pick

I don’t have much faith in either of these offenses to put the ball in the end zone.

Miami should take advantage of the mismatch with its running game, but I don’t know if the Hurricanes will lean into that enough.

With both teams likely starting backup quarterbacks, I would lean toward taking the under in this game. Neither team has shown a propensity to score and both defenses have been capable.

This should be an ugly game to watch.

Pick: Under 44.5 · Play to 41.5

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