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Florida State vs Syracuse Odds & Predictions: Seminoles to Pull Away?

Florida State vs Syracuse Odds & Predictions: Seminoles to Pull Away? article feature image
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Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis.

Florida State vs Syracuse Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
8 p.m. ET
ACC Network
Florida State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-7.5
-110
51.5
-106o / -114u
-320
Syracuse Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+7.5
-110
51.5
-106o / -114u
+255
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Florida State has crept its way back into the Top 25, and things look to be rolling on all cylinders in Tallahassee after two straight blowout wins.

The same, however, cannot be said for a Syracuse team that once reached as high as No. 14 this season. The Orange have dropped three straight since that 6-0 start as starting quarterback Garrett Shrader was sidelined by injury.

With Mike Norvell’s Seminoles playing some of their best football in recent memory, is Florida State the obvious pick? Or will the Orange finally put an end to their losing streak, even with a question mark under center?


Florida State Seminoles

A 2021 loss to FCS program Jacksonville State seems a distant memory as Florida State travels north, fresh off a walloping of intra-state foe Miami. The Seminoles dominated the Hurricanes from the opening whistle, holding Miami to just a lone field goal inside Hard Rock Stadium en route to a 45-3 win.

Jordan Travis is playing some of the best football of his career, thanks in large part to a productive ground game that is giving defenses fits. The Seminoles are 17th in the country with 211.8 yards per game rushing, led by a trio of backs with at least 70 carries each.

Trey Benson is fourth in the nation among running backs with as many carries as him (87) with a 7.0 yards-per-carry clip.

Travis has come on strong in the last three games, throwing eight touchdowns to just one interception. He threw for a career-high 396 yards two weeks ago in the Seminoles’ 25-points win over Georgia Tech.

Florida State’s defense has matched the offense over the last two weeks, allowing just 19 total points to the Yellow Jackets and Hurricanes. Miami had just 62 passing yards against a passing defense that ranks fifth in the country with 165.0 passing yards allowed per game.

Running defense has been a little inconsistent, including allowing over 170 yards rushing three times over a four-game stretch earlier in the year, but like the rest of the team, it has rounded into form the last two weeks.

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Syracuse Orange

A late October loss to Clemson proved to be a pivotal turning point for the Orange. Syracuse entered the game a perfect 6-0 and held a 21-10 lead over Clemson before the Tigers scored 17 unanswered points and sent the Orange into a downward spiral.

The 6-3 Orange have lost both games since, as Garrett Shrader has been in and out of the lineup, including missing all of last week’s 19-9 loss at Pitt.

Head coach Dino Babers kept a poker face at the team’s weekly press conference with regard to Shrader’s injury status as it relates to this week, but all things are pointing to another start from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.

If that is the case, that’s bad news for the Syracuse offense, as the freshman quarterback is just 22-of-50 on the season for 342 yards and a single touchdown. That just means an even heavier dependence on running back Sean Tucker who has seen a bit of a dropoff since his strong 2021 season.

After rushing for at least 100 yards in nine of Syracuse’s 12 games last season, the third-year back has only done that same feat in three of nine games this year and is averaging just 44.3 yards per game during the current losing streak.

Syracuse’s defense has kept it in games for the most part. The Orange have only allowed 306.9 yards per game (15th), but each of the last three games opponents have racked up over 330 yards.

Clemson and Notre Dame scored two of the three highest points totals against the Syracuse defense this season.


Florida State vs Syracuse Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Syracuse match up statistically:

Florida State Offense vs. Syracuse Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 14 94
Line Yards 58 110
Pass Success 34 21
Pass Blocking** 84 108
Havoc 67 80
Finishing Drives 70 6
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Syracuse Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 34 62
Line Yards 46 93
Pass Success 49 81
Pass Blocking** 28 45
Havoc 87 77
Finishing Drives 47 92
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 68 11
PFF Coverage 77 5
SP+ Special Teams 124 40
Seconds per Play 26.8 (75) 27.9 (99)
Rush Rate 55.7% (53) 56.1% (50)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Florida State vs Syracuse Betting Pick

Again, this is a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions. Yes, both of Florida State’s last two big wins came over teams fielding backup quarterbacks, but that doesn’t also account for how good the Seminoles offense has been.

Florida State has put up 1,096 yards of offense in the last two weeks, while Travis had more touchdown passes (3) than incompletions (2) against Miami.

This offense is rolling and is much more explosive than any of the Clemson, Notre Dame or Pittsburgh teams that Syracuse has faced during its three-game losing streak.

With Shrader questionable at best to lead this Orange offense, Syracuse is going to have trouble scoring more than 14 points. I’m jumping at this Florida State -7 line now before it moves even more.

Pick: Florida State -7

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