The Florida State Seminoles take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville, Va. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida State is favored by -7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. The total is set at 60 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Virginia predictions and college football picks for Friday, September 26.
Florida State vs Virginia Prediction
- Florida State vs. Virginia Pick: Virginia +7 or Better
My Virginia vs. Florida State best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida State vs Virginia Odds
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 60 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 60 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- Florida State vs Virginia point spread: Florida State -7
- Florida State vs Virginia over/under: 60 points
- Florida State vs Virginia moneyline: Florida State -260, Virginia +210
Florida State vs Virginia Preview
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview: Red Hot in the Red Zone
It appears that the Seminoles avoided a scare last Saturday when starting quarterback Thomas Castellanos went down with an ankle injury in their victory over Kent State. Castellanos has been limited at practice but will likely suit up against Virginia.
The Noles' offense has been sensational thus far, as Florida State has continued to put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard after its season opener against Alabama.
The Noles rank in the top 10 in the following offensive metrics: EPA/Pass and Rush, Available yard %, Late Down Success Rate and Early Down EPA/Play. They've also been extremely explosive and have handled business in the red zone.
The Noles rank 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives entering the matchup.
It's a decent matchup considering the Hoos have struggled against the run and on early downs. Virginia has done a decent job of preventing explosive plays.
The most significant metric that stuck out to me was that the Noles are 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives, whereas Virginia's defense has struggled mightily in that area.
The Noles are 18th in Havoc Allowed, so their offensive line has done a solid job thus far. The numbers are flawed based on their soft schedule in recent weeks, but the critical data point is the Alabama matchup from Week 1.
They've also been outstanding defensively. The Noles are in the top 25 in several defensive categories, including EPA/Pass and Rush Allowed per game.
They're also 18th in Defensive Havoc, but they'll be tested against a decent Virginia offensive line. I'd usually lean toward laying it with the Noles on the road, given that they've proven enough against Alabama. But their offense won't be the same, given Castellanos's uncertainty.
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview: Strong QB But Defensive Concerns
The Virginia Cavaliers enter Friday night's contest against Florida State as seven-point underdogs, but they fit the mold of a team that can pull off the upset.
Quarterback Chandler Morris has been one of my favorites in the Group of 5 in the last several years, and he's proven that he can handle the competition thus far.
Morris enters the matchup completing 71% of his passes with eight touchdowns and an interception. He also has over 1,000 passing yards through four games.
Their offense has been sensational through four games, and they'll get their first actual test of the season against the Noles' defense. The Hoos are in the top 30 in EPA/Pass/Rush and available yards.
Running back J'Mari Taylor is averaging over six yards per catch and has six touchdowns on the season. The Virginia offense has plenty of explosiveness, which will play a significant role here.
However, concerns on the defensive side of the ball could cost the Hoos. They don't generate much havoc, and they've allowed many explosive plays thus far.
Castellanos, who is entering the matchup with an injury concern, should help them a bit here, but they need to clean things up to win the game. The defensive line has produced an above-average stuff rate, but they're still well below the national average in EPA/Rush Allowed.
There are many concerns defensively, but I think the offense is good enough to keep up in a shootout.
Florida State vs Virginia Pick, Betting Analysis
I love Virginia here at home, catching seven points. The defensive issues are concerning, but its explosive offense is one that the Noles have yet to face.
Considering we're getting a touchdown at home, we can cash this in many ways, especially if they're only down two scores late.
I definitely think Florida State is much improved from last season, but with Castellanos' injury concern, there's a lot more uncertainty that this could end up being a close game.
Morris and Co. will deliver a backdoor score late if the Hoos happen to be trailing. I'll follow the market and sharp money here and fade the public.
Pick: Virginia +7 or Better
