The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (3-0, 1-0 SEC) host the No. 17 Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1) in a Saturday night SEC showdown. This game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on ABC.
Georgia comes into this rivalry matchup as a -3 favorite after picking up a 44-41 overtime victory over then-No. 15 Tennessee two weeks ago before enjoying a bye week.
Alabama, the +3 underdog, enters off a 38-14 demolition of Wisconsin before going into a bye week of its own.
Let's take a look at the Georgia vs. Alabama odds and our college football picks for this Week 5 clash on Saturday, Sept. 27.
Georgia vs. Alabama Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 53.5 -112o / -108u | -148 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 53.5 -112o / -108u | +124 |
By Pete Ruden
Saturday brings us a classic college football matchup.
Alabama owns the all-time lead in this series, 44-26, and has picked up victories in the last two editions of this game, including a 41-34 win last season and a 27-24 victory in the 2023 SEC Championship.
However, the Bulldogs got the best of the Crimson Tide when it mattered most, emerging victorious in the 2021-22 College Football Playoff National Championship by a score of 33-18.
This time around, Georgia enters as a -3 favorite with the over/under sitting at 53.5. But Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has stepped up in a major way against elite coaches with ranked teams.
Can he turn his 1-0 record against Kirby Smart into 2-0?
We polled 10 of our college football writers to get their opinion on Saturday's spread and over/under. With a big game ahead, let's dive right in.
Georgia vs. Alabama Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Split Decision (Slight Lean to Georgia -3)
There’s not much conviction on the Alabama vs. Georgia spread on Saturday. Three coin-flips headline the staff’s picks, but I’m ultimately taking the points with the Crimson Tide.
Three separate Bet Labs systems favor Alabama to cover Saturday.
Among those is an angle labeled “Mature Market Moves Line Freeze,” developed by none other than legendary Action Director of Research, Evan Abrams.
This college football system targets games where sharp bettors heavily favor one side, but the line barely moves.
These occur in regular-season games with spreads between 1-6 — essentially, games assumed to be closely-contested, where subtle market signals carry a ton of weight.
Also, a large gap between the percentage of money and the percentage of tickets indicates that sharp, high-stakes bettors lean one way, while casual bettors are on the opposite. When the line remains nearly static from open, it shows oddsmakers trust their initial number and are responding to sharp money rather than public bets.
In this case, the Tide are shaping up to be the “smart” side according to the data we track.
And here’s another angle to consider: Georgia has yet to cover the spread this season.
A separate Bet Labs model shows teams without a win against the spread laying points at home are terrible bets against the spread. In this instance, the Bulldogs are fade material.
Give me the Tide plus the points.
Georgia vs. Alabama Over/Under Pick
Over 53.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 3 Picks |
Under 53.5 | 1 Pick |
Our Staff Pick: Over 53.5
I'm going to go against the grain of our staff here and take the under.
If you just glanced at Alabama’s offensive metrics, you would think this is a competent offense:
However, anyone who watched the Florida State game knows these numbers are misleading.
They're being propped up by a 73-point victory over ULM and a 38-point performance against a Wisconsin team that didn't appear to practice the sport of football in the offseason.
Quarterback Ty Simpson looked bamboozled against Florida State. Yes, he's the 18th-ranked player by PFF Offensive Grade this season, but like the Alabama defense as a whole, it’s propped up by games against two bad teams.
Expect Georgia to get after Simpson, especially with his inability to throw on the run. I don't expect Simpson to be able to handle this, nor do I trust Kalen DeBoer to put him in the best spots to succeed.
Image Credit: PFF.
On the flip side, Georgia is one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Ranking in the top 20 in Success Rate and Points Per Opportunity may scream "over," but they're not the most explosive team in the county.
I see a slower, more methodical attack this week rather than what happened against Tennessee.
If Alabama can hold Georgia to a few field goals instead of touchdowns, I feel confident in the under.
IMG
Georgia vs. Alabama Player Prop Pick
Ryan Williams 80+ Receiving Yards and Anytime TD (+292)
By Alex Hinton
In Kirby Smart’s tenure at Georgia, his Bulldogs have usually been very stingy on defense. However, one area where Georgia can be exploited is in the secondary.
Alabama has done so over the years with its long lineage of future NFL wide receivers. Now, that WR1 is Ryan Williams.
The sophomore got off to a slow start to the year when he was held to 30 yards on five receptions against Florida State and left the game multiple times.
After missing the UL Monroe game, Williams returned against Wisconsin and went for 165 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions.
While Williams has a tougher task this week, he's likely looking forward to this matchup.
Last season, Williams went caught six passes for 177 yards and a touchdown against the Bulldogs. He also made one of the catches of the year in one of the games of the year.
Now, if you prefer to play one of these as a straight bet, Williams is +167 for 80 yards and +125 for a touchdown. However, every time he has gone for 80 yards in his career, he also has scored.
Additionally, Georgia just surrendered six receptions for 177 yards and three touchdowns to Tennessee’s Chris Brazzell.
Williams’ quarterback last season, Jalen Milroe, was dynamic and went 2-0 against Georgia, but Ty Simpson is a more natural passer. Whether Simpson is leading Alabama to a win or throwing from behind in a negative game script, I expect him to target his WR1 early and often.
