Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Georgia Southern Betting Odds & Pick: Fade the Ragin’ Cajuns (Saturday, Sept. 26)
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- Louisiana-Lafayette and Georgia Southern meet in an old-fashioned Sun Belt conference showdown at 12:00 p.m. ET today.
- The Ragin' Cajuns are riding high after their nationally-televised upset over Iowa State, but do they deserve to be 11-point favorites over Georgia Southern?
- Stuckey previews the matchup in his betting guide below, including updated odds and his pick for today's noon matchup.
UL-Lafayette vs. Georgia Southern Odds
|UL-Lafayette Odds||-11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Georgia Southern Odds||+11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-455/+340 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||50 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 12 p.m. ET|
The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns are off to a great start in 2020 and are currently ranked 19th in the AP Top 25 poll. It’s the first time in school history that Louisiana has been inside the Top 25 two weeks in a row.
The Ragin’ Cajuns and their opponents, Georgia Southern, have been hit by COVID this year and that should play a role in how this game plays out.
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Georgia Southern Eagles
The Eagles have only played one game this season, a one-point win over Campbell back on Sept. 12. I wouldn’t look too far into that result, though, as Georgia Southern announced that it would be without 33 players due to COVID-19 protocols. Seven starters were on that list, including All-Conference running back Wesley Kennedy III, All-Conference safety Kenderick Duncan and defensive lineman C.J. Wright.
The Eagles had a down year in 2019, primarily due to injuries and struggles along the offensive line — particularly at center. But they do return three offensive-line starters, and they shored up the center position via the transfer portal. The experience should pay off in a major way in 2020 for a team I’m actually very high on.
Georgia Southern should have all of its starters back on Saturday and the Eagles are led by a very experienced senior quarterback in Shai Werts, who mans their triple-option offense.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
The Ragin’ Cajuns opened the season with an upset win at Iowa State — one of the biggest wins in program history. They followed that up with a 3-point overtime win at Georgia State and now find themselves inside the top-20.
While the win in Ames was certainly impressive, ULL did benefit from two special teams touchdowns and another 80-yard long score. Plus, Iowa State had some unfortunate injuries to key positions on offense.
I made Louisiana a 10-point favorite over Georgia Southern assuming these teams are at full health, but that won’t be the case on Saturday due to COVID protocols.
The Ragin’ Cajuns will need to make due without five key starters, including star running back Elijah Mitchell, who averaged over 10 yards per carry in the conference opener and rushed for 164 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries last year against Georgia Southern.
Louisiana will also be without its starting right tackle and arguably best offensive lineman in Max Mitchell, which won’t help their usually potent rushing attack. Also, Dontae Fleming, who led the team in receiving yards against Iowa State, is listed as questionable with a lower-body injury.
The defense will also be shorthanded and notably missing nose guard Tayland Humphrey. His enormous presence up front will be sorely missed against the key inside runs of the triple-option. The Ragin’ Cajuns will also be without their best edge rusher and top corner.
Lastly, Cameron Solomon, who started at safety in one game this year, also won’t suit up. This undermanned defense could struggle a bit against an experienced Georgia Southern triple-option attack.
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Betting Analysis & Pick
I liked Georgia Southern before Louisiana’s injury issues came to light, and even though this line has dropped a couple of points, I still would look to the Eagles at the current number.
Not only am I higher on Georgia Southern than the market, but I also like getting double-digits on a triple-option team.
It’s always an enticing position to back a triple-option team as big underdogs because it’s more difficult to cover large spreads against teams who grind the clock and limit the number of overall possessions. Backing triple-option teams as double-digit underdogs has hit at a 55% clip over the past 15 seasons.
Georgia Southern is 14-7 (66.67%) Against the Spread (ATS) as a double-digit underdog, covering by an average of 5.4 points per game. The Eagles have also put a scare into a number of Power 5 teams over the years and even pulled off an outright upset over Florida in Gainesville as four-touchdown underdogs.
Pick: Georgia Southern +11.5 (down to +10)