Georgia Tech vs Florida State Odds & Picks: Don’t Expect Much Offense

Georgia Tech vs Florida State Odds & Picks: Don’t Expect Much Offense article feature image

Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Travis (Florida State)

Georgia Tech vs Florida State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 29
12 p.m. ET
ACC Network
Georgia Tech Odds
-110o / -110u
Florida State Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

At this point of the year, Georgia Tech is likely just trying to get this season over with.

After there were high hopes for Geoff Collins in Atlanta, his reign officially ended with his firing earlier this season. Things were mostly bleak for the Yellow Jackets until they rallied for two conference wins following the departure of Collins. Then last Thursday, they fell to Virginia.

Now Georgia Tech will be missing its starting quarterback and will face one of the toughest offenses that it has to play all season long. Luckily for the Yellow Jackets, their defense has been their strength this season, so they may be able to contain Florida State.

For the Seminoles, they are sitting at 4-3 and will need to win this game as they work toward bowl eligibility. FSU has lost three close games in a row to the likes of Wake Forest, North Carolina State and Clemson, who are all considered to be in the upper tier of the conference.

They will now need to take care of their business against a bottom-tier team in the ACC in order to get their season back on track.

Yellow Jackets Offense

To be frank, this offense has been downright atrocious this season. Georgia Tech ranks 117th in Offensive Success Rate and 124th in EPA per play. The passing game has been especially bad, ranking 123rd in Success Rate.

These matters will likely only get worse this week, as the Yellow Jackets will likely be without starting quarterback Jeff Sims.

Sims hasn’t been great this season — averaging -0.21 EPA per drop back — but he has provided value on the ground as the team’s leading rusher this season.

Instead of Sims, Georgia Tech will look to Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron, who are both expected to possibly play.

Gibson, in limited time this season, is averaging -0.56 EPA per drop back, as he took over for Sims against Virginia.

Pyron is a freshman who has not yet seen any game action in his career.

Yellow Jackets Defense

Georgia Tech ranks 90th in Offensive Success Rate, but 23rd in EPA per play. The Jackets are the 24th-best defense in the country at limiting explosive plays, which will be helpful against an offense that is the 16th-most explosive.

Where Georgia Tech struggles is stopping the run, which does not match up well against Florida State.

The Yellow Jackets’ ability to stop big plays mostly comes from their success against the pass. When facing the run, Georgia Tech is 99th in Success Rate and 66th in Explosiveness.

Seminoles Offense

This season, Florida State's offense has been very good when Jordan Travis is on the field. Overall, it ranks 34th in Success Rate and 40th in SP+. However, it ranks seventh in PFF offensive grade and eighth in rushing grade.

Travis is the main cog of this offense, averaging 0.23 EPA per drop back. Travis has the seventh-highest PFF passing grade in the country among quarterbacks that have played at least 20% of their teams’ passing snaps.

Running back Treshaun Ward is having a great year, as well (0.18 EPA per rush). Ward is averaging 6.97 yards per carry and leads the team with 502 rushing yards.

This Florida State rushing attack has been potent this season, ranking 14th in EPA per rush.

Seminoles Defense

Florida State’s defense hasn’t been lockdown this year, but it hasn't been terrible either. The Seminoles rank 86th in Defensive Success Rate and are 39th in SP+.

The one area that they have excelled at is their ability to limit explosive plays. They rank 28th in the country in Explosiveness on the defensive side.

The Seminoles' defense isn’t great, but you don’t have to be to stop this Georgia Tech offense. Even with the relative weakness of this FSU defense, I don’t see a path toward Georgia Tech putting up big numbers on the scoreboard.

Georgia Tech vs Florida State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Tech and Florida State match up statistically:

Georgia Tech Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Rush Success12585
Line Yards75104
Pass Success12394
Pass Blocking**12357
Finishing Drives122115
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Florida State Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
Rush Success1899
Line Yards50125
Pass Success5858
Pass Blocking**8197
Finishing Drives6132
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling5178
PFF Coverage5889
SP+ Special Teams99109
Seconds per Play25.3 (40)26.6 (72)
Rush Rate53.3% (65)53.6% (64)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Georgia Tech vs Florida State Betting Pick

I have no faith in this Georgia Tech offense being able to move the ball without Sims at quarterback, as it struggled even when it had him. 

Florida State’s rushing attack is lethal and will have another great day against the Yellow Jackets’ defense, especially if it has a positive game script early. 

The Seminoles rank 101st in the country in seconds per play, which could steer this game towards going under the total of 47.5. This season, Georgia Tech games are 7-0 to the under, giving us another reason to bet the total on this game.

Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 46)

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