Texas Tech captured its first-ever Big 12 title last season, and it's once again favored to win the 16-team league in 2026.
That doesn't mean two teams out in Utah — the Cougars and Utes — can't vie for the crown, though.
The Red Raiders unsurprisingly enter the season as +100 favorites, followed by BYU (+550), Utah (+650), Kansas State (+1400), Houston (+1700) and Arizona (+1800).
So, where does the value lie? Let's dive into our 2026 Big 12 preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2026 Big 12 Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Texas Tech | +100 |
| BYU | +550 |
| Utah | +650 |
| Kansas State | +1400 |
| Houston | +1700 |
| Arizona | +1800 |
| TCU | +2000 |
| Arizona State | +2500 |
| Oklahoma State | +2900 |
| Baylor | +4800 |
| Kansas | +5200 |
| West Virginia | +6000 |
| UCF | +7400 |
| Colorado | +9000 |
| Cincinnati | +10000 |
| Iowa State | +11000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday, Aug. 18
Pick to Win Big 12: Texas Texh
Texas Tech is basically an insurance policy in this conference.
While I don't like betting the Red Raiders to make a big splash on the national level, this team has the best defense in the Big 12 at all three levels.
The drop-off from Brendan Sorsby to Will Hammond also isn't massive. He should be able to keep this team from collapsing on the offensive side of the ball.
The closest game I have projected is at Cincinnati, and that's still over a touchdown. Meanwhile, BYU still hasn't figured out how to beat Tech after losing two games by a combined score of 63-14 last year.
Surprise Contender in Big 12: TCU
I like TCU to make the Big 12 Championship at +650.
Harvard transfer Jaden Craig will start under center, replacing Josh Hoover, who bolted to Indiana.
Craig's numbers are encouraging, racking up 54 big‑time throws and 26 turnover‑worthy plays over his career. When under pressure, his turnover-worthy play rate increases just 0.8%.
That's massive for a Horned Frogs offense that's focused on cutting down on turnovers.
Head coach Sonny Dykes also likes his coordinators in OC Gordon Sammis and DC Andy Avalos. Dykes has historically had massive finds at his coordinator positions, so that's only a positive for the Frogs.
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The summer of Brendan Sorsby ended with the quarterback leaving the program. Now, Will Hammond will assume the starting role coming off an ACL injury.
Hammond’s status is the big story, but a few other things keep Tech firmly in the conversation. The offensive line ranks 12th nationally with 5,229 returning snaps. That’s a legitimate advantage for Hammond or whoever starts.
Defensively, coordinator Shiel Wood’s unit is still the calling card. The Red Raiders boast the best front seven in the Big 12, led by Adam Trick, Trey White and A.J. Holmes Jr.
Naturally, we have to start with the power rating after the Sorsby fiasco. I shaved roughly five points for Texas Tech when Sorsby left. That’s not a huge drop because Hammond’s past numbers keep the team from collapsing, but it nudged my win total estimate from 11.2 to 10.7.
Over about 190 dropbacks in two years, Hammond has generated nine big-time throws and some turnover-worthy plays. He has experience, but the ACL question changes things.
I think he'd be doubtful for Abilene Christian, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he also misses the Oregon State game. Those early opponents are manageable, so Texas Tech can lean on the ground game and that veteran line.
From a conference perspective, not much changes.
Wood is still running what I think is the best defense in the league at all three levels. Nobody else in the Big 12 is close to that kind of defensive profile, and that’s what made them a contender last year and what should keep them near the top again.
On the national stage, I’m skeptical. The Raiders were blanked by Oregon last year, and I don’t see evidence of real progress there. Ultimately, I’ve got them roughly where they finished last season.
The tightest matchup I see is at Cincinnati, and that’s still a 10-point game on my board. So, we shouldn’t be expecting a lot of knife-edge wins. BYU clearly hasn't figured out how to beat this team yet, losing 34-7 and 29-7 in two games last year.
I'm keeping a small ticket on Texas Tech to win the Big 12. Nationally, I wouldn’t back the Red Raiders to be a true threat in the playoff.
Pick: Texas Tech to Win Big 12 (+100)
Bear Bachmeier coming back is huge. He threw for 3,033 yards and 15 touchdowns as a freshman, added 527 rushing yards and 11 rushing scores and took home Big 12 Freshman of the Year.
He’s not going to be exposed up front, either, because BYU ranks 13th nationally with 5,162 returning offensive line snaps. That continuity matters.
Even bigger for the offense is the return of running back LJ Martin, last year’s Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. He declined the NFL Draft after a 1,305-yard season. Martin averaged 3.8 yards after first contact and forced 56 missed tackles a year ago.
That gives BYU two legitimate rushing threats. With Martin drawing attention, Bachmeier can keep defenses honest with the run too.
Defensively, the staff continuity should be steady. Defensive coordinator Jay Hill left for Michigan, allowing Kelly Poppinga to be promoted to defensive coordinator.
But Poppinga’s been on staff, and the scheme isn’t expected to change after a top-15 defensive season.
BYU’s program-wide emphasis on turnovers and ball-scramble drills isn’t going away. Some call the Cougars' victories luck-box wins, but it’s by design at BYU. It practices the details that create takeaways and short-yardage stops.
Line matchups are where this team is built. BYU likely has the best offensive line in the Big 12 and the second-best defensive line. These trenches will decide a lot of games.
Still, the Cougars haven't figured out Texas Tech. The Red Raiders continuously give them trouble.
Looking ahead at the schedule, BYU is off a bye before a trip to TCU, which could be a knockout game on the path to the conference title game.
Notre Dame visits Provo before a needed bye week. It’ll be the Irish's seventh straight game, likely a late kickoff and one of the season’s must-see matchups. The Holy War against Utah feels like a coin-flip.
Realistically, only about three teams in the league can truly compete with BYU in the trenches. Cincinnati has an excellent offensive line but a poor defensive line. Well, to beat BYU, a team has to neutralize both Bachmeier and Martin.
This roster is set up to pull off a few upsets, and if the Cougars' trenches hold up and the turnover edge continues, they’ll be dangerous deep into the season. I want BYU to make the playoff at +330.
Pick: BYU to Make College Football Playoff (+330)
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Kyle Whittingham stepped down and headed to Michigan, so defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley comes in as the new head coach.
Offensively, the big constants are back.
Quarterback Devon Dampier — the Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year — comes back after throwing for 2,490 yards and 24 touchdowns with 835 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground, as does electric backup Byrd Ficklin.
That continuity matters because Utah plans to lean into the same RPO-heavy attack it ran under former offensive coordinator Jason Beck.
New OC Kevin McGiven has said to expect more of the same RPO volume. Dampier will likely to throw more than he did in 2025, as well.
The problem isn’t schematic identity; it’s personnel up front. The entire starting offensive line is gone to the NFL or graduation. The Utes' O-line ranks just 121st nationally in returning snaps.
That's a major caveat for any offense that lives and dies by timing and window size.
Schedule-wise, Utah opens with Idaho and then Arkansas. Arkansas isn’t a bottom-of-the-SEC defensive front; it has at least one disruptive interior presence and some stout bodies inside. That’s not an automatic cakewalk for a brand-new unit on the line.
Dampier was impressive last year playing through a double sports hernia and an ankle issue. That toughness is a plus, but it’s one thing to be effective while hurt and another to keep an inexperienced line clean against physical fronts.
Five Big 12 road games are a tough ask, especially for a team that enjoys one of the best home-field advantages in college football.
The first two true road trips to Iowa State and Colorado are favorable matchups up front because both have struggled on the defensive line. Those games give Utah’s young line a chance to get snaps and mature before the meat of the schedule hits.
There’s a five-game stretch that will likely decide the season: short favorites at Cincinnati, a coin-flip home game against BYU, short favorites at Arizona and a trip to face TCU. A night game at Rice-Eccles against Houston would help Utah lean on a hostile environment, but there are enough little angles on this slate to make things messy.
I have Utah pegged for 9.6 wins. This should probably be north of 8.5, but the turnover up front and variance early make me hesitant to back the Utes on the win total. I’m passing until that offensive line proves it can hold up.
Pick: Pass
Collin Klein is back in Manhattan, this time as Kansas State’s head coach. He was a Heisman finalist quarterback in 2012, losing the award to Johnny Manziel.
Klein was previously the offensive coordinator at Kansas State before heading to Texas A&M, where he coached under Mike Elko. The Aggies finished fifth in Havoc allowed and ranked top‑35 in Success Rate.
That’s the kind of ball‑control, low‑mistake approach Klein wants to bring to K‑State, with enough pop to keep chains moving.
Quarterbacks coach Christian Ellsworth followed Klein from A&M to keep Avery Johnson in Manhattan.
Johnson has been productive with 70 all‑purpose touchdowns over the last three seasons, but protection is huge here. Kansas State returns just 2,501 offensive‑line snaps, which ranks 113th in the FBS.
That’s a design problem when you’re asking a QB to manage a low‑error offense.
In the backfield, running back Joe Jackson showed the ability to finish games, averaging about four yards after first contact and ripping off six rushing touchdowns in the last two games. He can be the workhorse if the scheme leans his way.
Defensively, Jordan Peterson comes over from A&M as the defensive coordinator and is expected to install an Elko‑style 4‑2‑5.
The Wildcats return just one of their top seven tacklers, so personnel questions remain. That’s going to make early‑season cohesion important.
The two big concerns before buying in fully are the offensive line and turnovers.
The line needs reps. I expect Kansas State to be a heavy favorite in the first three games while it tries to settle that unit before it faces Cincinnati. By the bye week against Houston, the O‑line needs to look like one of the conference’s better units, or it'll get chewed up.
Johnson’s turnover profile is the other red flag. His turnover‑worthy play rate jumped to 4.6% under pressure, and he had 10 fumbles last season after only four across the prior two years combined.
Klein’s system doesn’t tolerate that kind of sloppiness. The offense can’t have a QB putting the team at risk at that clip.
I project the Wildcats at 9.3 wins, and I like the over 8.5 at plus-money.
Pick: Kansas State Over 8.5 Wins (+125)
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Conner Weigman is back for a fifth season after a strong 2025 that saw him throw 25 touchdowns to nine interceptions while adding 11 scores on the ground.
He'll be a mentor for five-star true freshman Keisean Henderson, who’s already getting work in short-yardage and goal-line packages in practice.
On paper, the offense looks like it’s trending up with a veteran QB who figured it out, a blue-chip freshman to plug into high-leverage spots and reliable weapons.
Amare Thomas also returns as the top receiver after posting an elite 2.4 yards per route run, and running back Makhi Hughes reunites with offensive coordinator Slade Nagle after back-to-back 1,300+ yard seasons at Tulane in 2023 and 2024.
Trent Walker arrives from Oregon State for his fifth season and brings 2.1 yards per route run.
Toss in a brutally experienced offensive line unit that accounts for 5,542 returning snaps (fourth in FBS), and Houston has got one of the most veteran trenches in the Big 12.
Defensively, the 2025 numbers were solid but not runaway. Houston ranked 35th in Havoc and 19th in pass breakups per game, which is good enough to be a factor but not so dominant that regression is impossible.
Here’s where the mismatch shows up: Everything on paper points up, but the schedule and some coin-flip games could push results the other way.
The Cougars were outstanding in one-possession games last year, and that kind of record rarely repeats perfectly. Only four Big 12 home games also dampens any home-field cushion.
If you’re handicapping win totals, you'd need roughly five losses to hit the under being floated. The obvious candidates are at Texas Tech, at Kansas State (off a bye) and at Utah. Beyond those, Cincinnati at home and Colorado on the road look like true coin-flips.
The roster makeup and returning experience suggest the team is trending upward, but the math of schedule difficulty and close-game variance gives reasonable grounds for skepticism.
I lean toward respect for the offense’s upside, but I also understand why someone would eyeball the under. I’ll probably pass myself.
Pick: Pass
Quarterback Noah Fifita returns for his senior season after a breakout year that saw him throw for 3,228 yards, 29 touchdowns and six interceptions with three rushing scores. Plus, it was a quick 9-4 turnaround for the program.
Brennan called him “the best story in college football” for sticking around, and through four seasons, Fifita has 73 touchdowns to just 24 interceptions.
That said, there's still a lot to fix. The transfer portal reshaped the roster, as 38 players left and 23 new ones arrived.
The running back, wide receiver and linebacker groups enter the year with the least experience on the roster, which is a real concern for consistency on both sides of the ball.
At wideout, Chris Hunter and Tre Spivey return after combining for 89 targets in 2025, but neither managed better than 1.5 yards per route run last season. That’s not the kind of efficiency you want when your QB is coming off a career year.
The offensive line took a hit, too. Four starters are gone, and the unit returns just 2,614 snaps, which ranks 111th in FBS.
On top of that, the top three tight ends have departed, so the coaching staff will spend a lot of fall camp trying to rebuild chemistry.
Put it together, and you’ve got clear holes at several key spots. The pieces Fifita needs to repeat or improve on last year's production aren’t all there yet.
On schedule, the back half is brutal: the last five games are at Texas Tech, vs. TCU, vs. Utah, at Kansas State and vs. Arizona State. If the position groups aren’t tightened up early, that stretch could get ugly.
I project 7.4 wins, and the market sits at 7.5 with a juicy under. It’s not a play I’ll be making.
Pick: Pass
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TCU’s offense is getting a clear personality shift this offseason. Josh Hoover transferred out to Indiana, and Jaden Craig transferred in from Harvard.
Craig owns a tidy career line with 52 passing touchdowns to just 12 interceptions and was a first‑team All‑Ivy League selection.
The numbers behind him are encouraging. Over his career, he totaled 54 big‑time throws and 26 turnover‑worthy plays. Even when opponents dialed up pressure, his TWP rate ticked up only about .08%. He’s comfortable with chaos around him.
Gordon Sammis will take over play‑calling and is expected to change the offense’s feel. Dykes said they watched UConn tape religiously and targeted Sammis for the exact kind of crisp, controlled offense he runs.
Expect fewer high‑risk throws, more structure and more running, with Craig making smart decisions in a cleaner, more physical scheme.
Craig's profile is important because TCU wants to emphasize ball security after 42 lost turnovers the past two seasons. Dykes has even said that protecting the football has been the main focus in camp.
The Horned Frogs are also adding more physicality with running back Jeremy Payne, who averaged 3.8 yards after first contact last season.
Both sides of the ball sit below 50% TARP (Transfer Assets and Returning Production), with the defense taking the bigger hit in the linebacker room.
Only one of last year’s top five tacklers returns for 2025, and the staff expects a portal influx of starters from Western Kentucky and Virginia Tech to help plug holes.
The defensive line should be solid enough to help stop the run, but the linebackers are the real question mark.
The Frogs open against UNC in Dublin in Week 0, then come back and leave Texas just twice after that. If the team isn’t worn out from the trip, there’s a runway for improvement.
Dykes sounds supremely confident in his coordinator choices, and historically he’s hit home runs there, so that bodes well.
This TCU offense should be fun to watch with Craig under center.
I have the Horned Frogs as underdogs of more than one score just once all year in the regular-season finale against Texas Tech. If they can make some noise in those coin-flip games, they could have a season to remember.
If they can hold onto the ball and don't get the energy sucked out of them after going overseas, I like the Frogs to make the Big 12 Championship at +650 and would even throw a dart for them to win it at +2000.
Pick: TCU to Win Big 12 Championship (+2000) · TCU to Make Big 12 Championship (+650)
Head coach Kenny Dillingham said he was “fired up” about his quarterback room at Big 12 Media Days, which is honest, because there’s no clear starter right now.
The contenders include Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley, veteran Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene and two true freshmen in Cameron Dyer and Jake Fette.
Boley’s tape is mixed, with seven big‑time throws to 19 turnover‑worthy plays as a sophomore. He also dealt with 11 drops and faced 108 pressures across 364 dropbacks.
Keene is the safe option because he’s been everywhere and understands how to run a room.
The scheme returns with Dillingham and offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo, but this feels like a reboot.
I’ve never liked Arroyo much, and his weaknesses were masked by the talent at the skill positions and Sam Leavitt. Arroyo’s offenses have historically struggled on third down, and last year’s 120th ranking confirms that.
The core of that 2024 Big 12 title team is gone, and the backfield was rebuilt with leading rusher Raleek Brown and quarterback Jeff Sims leaving.
There are weapons, as wide receiver Reed Harris and tight end Khamari Anderson headline the supporting cast, but history suggests Arizona State develops unknown players quickly. We’ve seen Brown, Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson emerge seemingly out of nowhere.
Defensively, this team doesn’t inspire confidence either. The secondary sits in the bottom half of the Big 12, and the line is middle of the pack.
The scheduling stuff is worrisome. Playing a marquee opponent like Texas A&M and then heading to London to play Kansas for the conference opener is odd. If going overseas truly derails a group for a half-season, doing it in Week 3 is a real risk.
ASU should beat Morgan State, Baylor and Hawaii, but losses include Texas A&M, Texas Tech, BYU and Arizona. I just don’t see them winning those four.
That caps the Sun Devils' ceiling at about eight wins. Toss in the London coin-flip, Kansas State, Colorado, UCF and Oklahoma State’s ability to attack secondaries, and it all points down.
Unless Jake Fette or someone in the running back or wide receiver rooms develops into another Leavitt, Brown or Tyson, this looks like an under team.
Pick: Arizona State Under 6.5 Wins (-105 · Lean)
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Mike Gundy’s run at Oklahoma State ended after a 1-11 collapse. Eric Morris arrives from North Texas with the No. 1 offense in the country, as the Cowboys basically hit the reset button with 85 new players and roughly 60 from the portal.
The North Texas pipeline is massive.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker led FBS in passing yards and touchdowns as a freshman, running back Caleb Hawkins went for 1,434 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns, and nearly two dozen Mean Green pieces come into play in offensive coordinator Sean Brophy's uptempo Air Raid attack.
I gave Oklahoma State a massive bump in my power ratings, including +10 for TARP, +3 for coaching and +1 for second-order win total. This roster was so bad last year that these moves pushed my ratings a lot higher.
The offense should translate because Mestemaker has a big arm and can make those game-changing deep throws and slices through soft safeties over the middle. He’s a real downfield weapon.
Hawkins is legit even in terms of Group of 6 numbers with 4.6 yards after first contact. He fits this scheme and will produce. Brophy and the North Texas offensive crew know how to score quick and force teams into shootouts.
However, there are some concerning things on defense.
This defense has holes everywhere, but the secondary is the worst spot by a long way. New defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity inherits a unit will struggle from Day 1.
The back end turns a lot of opponents into potential upset threats and limits Oklahoma State's upside against better teams.
The Pokes aren’t beating Oregon, Houston, Kansas State or Texas Tech if those teams show up. With West Virginia, UCF, Iowa State, Arizona State and Kansas also on the schedule, the ceiling looks like eight wins.
That means the Pokes can’t afford many screw-ups. If the win total market is 6.5 at plus-money, you probably need to feel really confident to grab the over.
I lean under the win total, but I'll play Oklahoma State against UCF with the Pokes coming off a bye and the Knights playing on the road in a tough spot.
Pick: Oklahoma State ATS vs. UCF
DJ Lagway replaces Sawyer Robertson at quarterback, so offensive coordinator Jake Spavital plans to lean more on vertical and middle-of-field shots that play to Lagway’s arm and run threat.
That makes sense on paper. Lagway has 31 big-time throws on his career tape, but he has also committed 25 turnover-worthy plays, so there’s risk mixed in with the upside.
There has been a roster reset at receiver and along the offensive line.
The only returning offensive lineman with regular reps is right tackle Kaden Sieracki. Baylor’s returning offensive line snaps still rank 54th nationally, which is fine but not comforting for a line that needs continuity.
Running back continuity is better. Both Caden Knighten and Dawson Pendergrass are back, and Pendergrass has been a scoring machine with 11 touchdowns over the past two seasons.
The schedule isn’t kind. Baylor hits a stretch of road travel in the middle of the season and has only four Big 12 home games. That matters for a team with a rebuilt roster and questions up front.
Defensively, the losses sting worse.
Baylor is missing its top two tacklers, and the biggest questions sit in the linebacker unit. New defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman (Kansas State) comes in to stabilize the group, but there’s reason for skepticism.
Kansas State was poor last year in a few front-seven metrics, ranking 127th in Rush EPA allowed and 95th in pass rush with tackling numbers hovering outside the top 100.
That’s not exactly the resume you point to when you need a quick defensive rescue.
My other big worry is workload and fatigue for Lagway. He threw 192 times as a freshman and 337 last year for 529 attempts across two seasons. Robertson threw roughly 505 times last year.
The scheme shift matters because ex-Florida head coach Billy Napier’s offense was painfully slow on the play clock, often taking 35 seconds to snap and giving the QB more recovery time between plays. Spavital’s offense runs at a much quicker pace.
All of that pushes me toward a pretty bearish outlook. I started penciling in losses and can easily spot seven or more: Auburn, Arizona State, TCU, Kansas, BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, plus the brutal travel stretch I mentioned.
That’s eight knocks off the ledger before you get to health, in-season adjustments or a defense that needs to rework fundamental issues.
This looks like a team with a lot of upside questions concerning quarterback durability, an offensive line reset, lost tacklers, a new defensive voice with shaky recent metrics and a schedule that doesn’t do them favors.
I’m comfortable fading them until they show otherwise.
Pick: Baylor Under 5.5 Wins (+134)
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Kansas didn't hit the transfer portal to replace quarterback Jalon Daniels. Instead, the Jayhawks opened fall camp with sophomore Isaiah Marshall and junior Cole Ballard competing for the job.
Whoever earns the starting job should be protected well, as KU ranks 37th nationally in returning offensive line snaps.
Once the hottest name on the coaching market, Andy Kotelnicki is back in Lawrence as offensive coordinator after two seasons at Penn State.
Running backs Dylan Edwards and Cam Edwards should help a ground-and-motion attack that wants heavy motion and multiple personnel groupings. However, Edwards has never logged 75 carries in a season, so relying on him raises questions.
Here’s where the math isn’t adding up for me: Kotelnicki's best work has come with dual-threat quarterbacks who can move and threaten in RPO space. That could be Isaiah Marshall, but it's not Cole Ballard, who projects as the more stationary passer.
Can Kotelnicki really run his preferred heavy-motion, multiple-personnel, space-RPO offense with a bottom-tier group of Big 12 quarterbacks and receivers?
The defense looks solid in continuity with six of the top eight tacklers returning. Kansas posted one of the highest defensive TARP numbers in the Big 12.
The clear weak spot is Finishing Drives. The Jayhawks ranked 120th in Finishing Drives allowed last season, and 35-of-39 opponent red-zone trips ended in a score. I’m not convinced they've done enough to fix that.
The safeties could be among the worst in the Big 12, which is a problem against this league’s passing attacks.
The schedule doesn’t make life easier. After Long Island, Kansas faces hated rival Missouri, then flies to London to face Arizona State. In fact, the Jayhawks have only three true home games at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.
Utah also has a bye before hosting the Jayhawks, so an 0-3 Big 12 start is entirely plausible.
Three wins over LIU, Middle Tennessee and Baylor feel safe, but the questions on both sides of the ball make it tough to find a ceiling.
I have Kansas projected for 7.1 wins, but I don’t want a piece of an over 6.5 number even at plus-money. I’m passing because the math, scheme fit and Finishing Drives rate leave me unsettled.
Pick: Pass
Rich Rodriguez heads into Year 2 after a messy 4-8 debut, and a lot of the offseason noise makes this feel like a team in transition rather than one on the verge of a breakout.
The most immediate storyline is a quarterback battle through fall camp between sophomore Scotty Fox Jr. and Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins Jr.
That race matters a lot because Hawkins represents the unknown. Can he be an RPO quarterback in Rodriguez’s system, or will he be a band-aid whose tape is visible on game day?
There was a mass exodus through the portal that included quarterbacks Nicco Marchiol (Northwestern), Jaylen Henderson (Liberty) and Khalil Wilkins (Marshall), along with running back Jahiem White (North Texas) and wide receiver Rodney Gallagher III (Arizona).
On the plus side, Jacksonville State transfer Cam Cook will be running behind a heavily experienced offensive line in Rich Rod's run-heavy scheme.
That continuity up front is real. The offensive line returns 5,466 snaps (seventh in FBS), which puts them among the top-10 returning lines nationally and gives Rodriguez a legitimate foundation for his run game.
Defensively, it’s messier. The unit returns just one of the team’s top 17 tacklers and finished with the lowest defensive TARP rating in the Big 12. That’s a real red flag because the pressure on the offense to outscore opponents will be significant.
My math leans to the under on win total. That said, Rodriguez has a habit of overachieving when his offense has the right pieces.
Hawkins is the wild card. His brief, ugly relief spot at Oklahoma shouldn’t be taken as a definitive look. OU was essentially missing its entire line and multiple receivers. He was running for his life, so that performance is a poor barometer for what he might do in a fully functioning Rich Rod offense.
If Hawkins can run the RPO scheme at a competent level, this team can surprise. If not, I don’t see it clicking enough on offense to cover the defensive shortcomings.
Looking at the schedule, I can only find five possible wins right now: Coastal Carolina, UT Martin, Iowa State, Cincinnati and Kansas.
Pick: West Virginia Under 5.5 Wins (Lean · +134)
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UCF underwent a huge roster churn in the transfer portal, with 64 players leaving and 33 coming in as Scott Frost heads into Year 2.
The offensive line looks solid on paper and could be one of the better units in the Big 12 with 5,006 returning snaps, which ranks 17th in FBS.
The biggest addition is James Madison transfer quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who Frost said has already taken over the offense.
Barnett earned Sun Belt Player of the Year honors last season and brings a proven dual-threat profile with 49 career passing touchdowns and 23 rushing touchdowns. He’s an instant offense manufacturer, which explains why JMU gave Oregon a scare in the playoff.
Defensively, UCF isn’t a dumpster fire. Two of the team’s top three tacklers return in linebacker Lewis Carter (92 tackles, two sacks, two TFLs) and safety Demari Henderson (61 tackles). It’s a mid-pack Big 12 defense that can be good enough in spots.
I have UCF at 5.9 wins, so I’m taking the over on 5.5 despite the juice at about -140.
A couple of scheduling nuances matter. The Knights have five home games, and the home environment can swing depending on whether games are during the day or at night.
Also, the TCU game comes just weeks after the Horned Frogs' overseas trip, so fatigue could be a factor early in the season.
Wins over Bethune-Cookman, Georgia State and Iowa State are basically locks. After that, there are a bunch of coin-flips, and they only need three of them to clear 5.5.
TCU is a toss-up, Baylor feels like a win and Kansas should be beatable. The other coin-flips are two teams in flux in Arizona State and Colorado.
The nice thing with so many coin-flips late in the schedule is hedging flexibility. I project Arizona State vs. UCF within a point and UCF vs. Colorado within a touchdown.
That makes it easy to hedge your season-long win total in November if you need to lock up a win. I do this every year in the Action Network app, as a one-unit late-season hedge can be the difference.
Barnett is a legitimate playmaker, and the schedule gives enough coin-flips and home games to confidently take over 5.5.
Pick: UCF Over 5.5 Wins (-140)
Redshirt sophomore Julian Lewis is the unquestioned QB1 after starting multiple games as a freshman and finishing with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions.
Utah transfer Isaac Wilson will be the primary backup. That’s important because Colorado isn’t leaning on an experienced pocket passer; it's leaning on a young player with upside and a coach who wants to speed things up.
Brennan Marion is the new offensive coordinator, bringing the Go-Go offense with him.
Marion’s system has been portable, and he has already used the portal to plug in pieces that fit that scheme, most notably San Jose State wide receiver Danny Scudero, who posted 2.6 yards per route run in that veer-and-shoot offense.
The portal work didn’t stop at skill positions, as the Buffaloes also added a lot of run defenders at all three levels.
This is a roster that looks very much like a portal build. It's a massive churn, even by Colorado standards, with north of 35 outgoing transfers and 55 new players, 40 of those via the No. 21 portal class with just about a dozen high-school recruits.
The offensive line is a bright spot in the turnover, ranking 35th nationally in returning snaps. Lewis should have decent protection from one of the more experienced units on the roster.
On defense, the line is a question mark. If opponents can run and control the clock, they can keep Colorado’s Go-Go offense on the sideline and force the Buffs into uncomfortable scripts.
On a personality note, there could be a potential clash between Marion and head coach Deion Sanders. Deion’s persona doesn’t switch off, and Marion has a big personality of his own. That doesn’t mean it won’t work; it just means chemistry matters here.
If the personalities sync, this offense could be explosive with Lewis running Marion’s offense.
Schedule-wise, Weber State is a clear win in Week 2. After that, there are a lot of coin-flips, but I see a realistic path to five wins.
Opponents that play a pass-first style or don’t run well give Colorado a better chance. Baylor, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Arizona State and UCF are all winnable. Kansas State is trickier but not an automatic run-first slog this year. That’s six realistic targets.
The market win total sits at 4.5. With Weber locked and a handful of clear matchups where Colorado’s weaknesses are minimized or opponents are attackable through the air, I lean the over.
The defensive line's vulnerability makes games against heavy-run teams scary, but the schedule tilts enough toward pass-first or beatable run units that +134 on the over looks fair.
Pick: Colorado Over 4.5 Wins (+134)
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Cincinnati lands at 7.6 wins in my model, and there are a few moving parts that explain why.
First, let's note that Brendan Sorsby left the program, and the Big 12 may open an inquiry into possible gambling activity. That’s an off-field cloud worth watching, even if it hasn’t changed the numbers my model uses right now.
On the field, JC French IV transfers in from Georgia Southern, bringing a 38:20 touchdown-to-interception ratio with plenty of turnover-worthy plays. He’s essentially a touchdown machine on paper but a risk machine too.
The offensive line is the real cornerstone even if it ranks just 50th nationally in returning snaps. Tackle Joe Cotton and guard Evan Tengesdahl project as two of the better offensive linemen in the Big 12.
In the backfield, Gi'Bran Payne flashed one explosive run at Notre Dame but didn’t consistently get on the field behind Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Zylan Perry brings experience out of Louisiana, and the running backs will benefit from the line.
Coaching-wise, offensive coordinator Brad Glenn is out. Cincinnati kept it mostly in-house by promoting quarterbacks coach Pete Thomas and offensive line coach Nic Cardwell to co-offensive coordinators.
Scott Satterfield will likely keep play-calling duties, so the system shouldn’t get a wholesale reset despite the title changes.
On the other side of the ball, new defensive coordinator Nate Woody arrives from Army and will move the unit away from the previous 3-3-5 look to a 3-4.
The stated reason was limiting turnovers; Woody’s plan emphasizes more pressure and multi-blitz schemes. Expect different looks up front and an emphasis on getting after the quarterback.
Ultimately, I gave Cincinnati a +2 bump in end-of-season power rating simply for experience returning. The Bearcats were slightly above average on both sides of the ball, so that’s where the two points come from. There was a net-zero change for second-order win total and coaching changes.
I expect the Bearcats to be small 'dogs at home against Kansas State, at Arizona and at Houston. I also have them as pretty big favorites against West Virginia off a bye. Those spots are the swing factors.
Historically, the fourth quarter has cost them games. If that continues, the team slips. If the offense limits turnovers and the defense ramps up pressure like Woody wants, they can cash the over.
I have Cincinnati projected at 7.6 wins. I see six wins on the schedule, and seven is even realistic.
Pick: Cincinnati Over 5.5 Wins (+125)
This is a true Year 0 for Jimmy Rogers.
Iowa State returns just four starters, lost a staggering 103 players to the portal and brought in 51.
The offense is especially thin. The Cyclones own the lowest offensive TARP in the FBS and just 2,198 offensive line snaps, which ranks 124th nationally. This is a roster that’s being rebuilt in real time.
Rogers brought in defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit, who followed the head coach from both South Dakota State and Washington State.
On offense, coordinator Tyler Roehl comes in from the Detroit Lions and added quarterbacks coach Keith Heckendorf.
They landed a portal win with Jaylen Raynor from Arkansas State after he posted 67 all-purpose touchdowns over three seasons. Oklahoma State transfer Zane Flores is expected to compete with holdover Connor Moberly for the backup job.
Rogers has been blunt in the fact that he’s installing his system from Day 1 and expects players to learn it, regardless of who’s on the roster now.
That approach has worked for him and his coordinators in other spots, but this is a brand-new roster. Saying you’ll run the system first and then recruit to it is a red flag for growing pains. When you’ve rebuilt this much, insisting on installation over tailoring can lead to early hiccups.
There’s a dangerous hangover window early in the season. The Bowling Green game comes between the Cy-Hawk game against Iowa and a Week 4 trip to Utah.
The Clones have only four Big 12 road games on the slate and notable absences like Texas Tech, Houston and TCU, but that Bowling Green game feels like the one to watch for an early upset if the offense struggles to buy into the new scheme.
Pick: Iowa State Under 4.5 Wins (Lean · +115)
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