The Houston Cougars take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, OK. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on TNT.
Houston is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my Houston vs. Oklahoma State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
Houston vs Oklahoma State Prediction
- Houston vs. Oklahoma State Pick: Houston -14.5
My Oklahoma State vs. Houston best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Houston vs Oklahoma State Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
- Houston vs Oklahoma State point spread: Houston -14.5
- Houston vs Oklahoma State over/under: 46.5 points
- Houston vs Oklahoma State moneyline: Houston -600, Oklahoma State +450
Houston vs OK State Preview
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Poor Offense Off the Hook Against OK State
Houston’s offense is imperfect but set up to succeed against the horrific Oklahoma State unit. The Cougars are average through the air (EPA/Pass +0.06; 74th) and struggling on the ground (EPA/Rush -0.15; 127th), but they typically start with advantageous field position (own 30; 25th).
They've somehow survived long downs and distances (7.65 to go; 109th) thanks to a functional 45.6% conversion rate.
By itself that’s middling — until you put it against Oklahoma State’s defense, which is leaking efficiency across the board: EPA/Pass Allowed +0.19 (117th), EPA/Rush Allowed +0.03 (97th), Available Yards Allowed 51.2% (110th), Early-Downs EPA Allowed +0.08 (112th), and 3rd/4th Down Allowed 47.4% (105th).
The Pokes can't get off the field, and with more opt-outs looming, I expect the Coogs' offense to get a significant boost because of the matchup.
If quarterback Conner Weigman clears concussion protocol — he was “trending in the right direction” early this week — Houston’s average passing efficiency should play up against soft coverage and a thin Oklahoma State back seven.
If he sits, the Cougars can still build drives via field position and Oklahoma State’s poor early-down defense; the matchup is that soft.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview: When it Rains, it Pours for Offense
Local reporting in Stillwater, Oklahoma, added tight end Josh Ford and, more broadly, seven Cowboys to the opt-out tally, further straining depth and rotations.
Even if most defensive starters dress, the cumulative exits and reshuffles are an absolute catastrophe.
A few weeks ago, I told you that the Pokes were the worst Power-4 team in the nation. That was before head coach Mike Gundy was fired and all of these other opt-outs and entries into the transfer portal.
This is where the game can break. The Pokes’ offense is in crisis: EPA/Pass -0.28 (132nd), EPA/Rush -0.08 (110th), Available Yards 30.4% (132nd), Early-Downs EPA -0.24 (134th), 3rd-Down 35.3% (T-121st) and a brutal 8.61 yards-to-go on third down (132nd).
That profile screams three-and-outs, stalled drives and long fields.
I almost forgot to mention that quarterback Zane Flores may not play because of an injury he sustained against Arizona. There's no stability behind him in the quarterback room, so the Pokes could be rolling out the waterboy under center for all we know.
Houston’s defense is a tough matchup as is: EPA/Pass Allowed -0.42 (3rd), EPA/Rush Allowed -0.10 (36th), Available Yards Allowed 27.0% (6th), Early-Downs EPA Allowed -0.11 (34th), and 3rd-Down Allowed 33.9% (21st).
Coogs' defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong's tendencies match the data: win first down, force an obvious pass and finish the series. That's catastrophic for an Oklahoma State offense that's already facing third-and-forever most of the time.
Houston vs Oklahoma State Pick, Betting Analysis
You need explosive scoring or relentless drive suppression to cover two touchdowns on the road. Houston brings the latter in spades.
Oklahoma State’s current offensive state — injuries, opt-outs and bottom-tier early-down/third-down metrics — is the perfect match for a Cougars' defense that already limits opponents to 27% of available yards.
Even if Houston’s run game remains quiet, the matchup and attrition on the Oklahoma State side creates a high floor for winning by 15+. I'm keeping a close eye on the injury report since Weigman's status can impact what I'll target here as my best bet.
If the number climbs, I’d still play -15.5 given the drive value gap. If Weigman is out, I'll be all in on the Oklahoma State team total under.
Pick: Houston -14.5 | Oklahoma State Team Total Under (If Weigman is Out)
