The Houston Cougars take on the UCF Knights in Orlando, Florida, on Friday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FS1.
Houston is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. UCF, meanwhile, enters as a +1 underdog and is -105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here’s my Houston vs. UCF prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 7.
Houston vs UCF Prediction
- Houston vs. UCF Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 48)
My UCF vs. Houston best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Houston vs UCF Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- Houston vs UCF Spread: Houston -1, UCF +1
- Houston vs UCF Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Houston vs UCF Moneyline: Houston -115, UCF -105
Houston vs UCF College Football Betting Preview
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Good Time for a Bye
Getting embarrassed, 45-35, by a winless conference opponent the week after cracking the AP Top 25 isn’t ideal. But that’s what happened to Houston last week behind 53 West Virginia runs and over 250 yards.
Youngster quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. accounted for a trio of touchdowns and appeared to come into his own in the Rich Rodriguez offense. Four turnovers doomed Houston, and there were nearly a fifth and a sixth.
Anomalous, but also a potential harbinger for this weekend.
It’s been a while since Houston has had a bye week, and the Cougars rely heavily on a small number of offensive and defensive linemen.
Houston’s lack of depth on the defensive line has necessitated that Carlos Allen Jr. and Khalil Laufau take all of the snaps; no other interior defensive lineman has more than 70 logged snaps this season.
As a team, Houston missed 10 tackles against WVU’s ballcarriers, another sign of tired legs.
After all, the Cougars will play seven consecutive opponents, four on the road, for a total of 8,900 miles traveled. Six of those foes are conference opponents, and the two games before the WVU meltdown were one-score finishes.
Pile on Willie Fritz being at the center of some major coaching rumors (LSU, Auburn, you name it), and there’s just a lot going on in Houston.
Quarterback Conner Weigman also lost his top deep threat, senior Stephon Johnson, to a season-ending injury following the Arizona game.
But the central problem with the Week 10 game was getting destroyed at the point of attack. Weigman took five sacks and was pressured 12 times — the highest number since Houston returned three hurt starters on the line in Week 6.
Fortunately, its remaining schedule (UCF, TCU, Baylor) doesn’t feature killers up front. But it's certainly something to keep in mind for the postseason.
UCF Knights Betting Preview: Little Upside
Scott Frost’s uncanny ability to come off the bye week completely unprepared managed to bite UCF in the rear once again. Frost is now 3-8 straight up off a bye week, with the latest chapter being a 30-3 whipping at the hands of a skidding Baylor.
A 4-4 record may seem like an OK mark for a team completely turned over this offseason, but those four wins are:
- 17-10 against Jacksonville State (-20.5 favorites)
- FCS North Carolina A&T (118th in FCS power ratings)
- 3-5 North Carolina
- 3-6 West Virginia
To be fair to Frost, the quarterback situation has been a complete nightmare this season.
Tayven Jackson, Jacurri Brown and Cam Fancher have all spent time on the injury report, and Jackson, the leading QB1, has just five passing touchdowns to four interceptions on a team that throws the ball with the 20th-highest frequency over its last three games (55.8%).
Neither Jackson nor Fancher averages more than 9.0 yards in terms of average depth of target. Over 26% of Jackson’s passing attempts come behind the line of scrimmage, as well.
An overwhelming majority of offensive success comes from long run plays, many of which are from junior sparkman Jaden Nixon, who has five 15-plus yard runs on just 36 attempts. When those aren’t available, there’s not much to move the ball.
Fortunately, the Knights defense has risen to the occasion. UCF has held six of its eight opponents under 30 points and five of those to 20 or fewer.
Sophomore Jayden Bellamy leads one of the top-performing secondaries in the Big 12. That unit benefits from an above-average pass rush, and the defense is sound in tackling as a whole.
But when your offense plays musical chairs with who might be healthy at quarterback and puts up 20 or fewer points in five games, it’s hard to generate wins.
UCF must find two wins between Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and BYU to clinch a bowl spot this year. Possible, but not favored.
Houston vs UCF Pick, Betting Analysis
Coming off a shocking loss to West Virginia, Houston flipped from a -2.5 road favorite at open to an even shorter home favorite. The total was bet down a hair from 48.5 at open.
These two teams are familiar foes from the American, and this is their second meeting since joining the Big 12 (UCF won, 27-13, at home in 2023). UCF leads the all-time series, 8-3, and hasn’t dropped one since 2016 (3-0 since).
On the surface, making a 7-2 team a near underdog to a 4-4 one coming off a 30-3 loss doesn’t make much sense. But sharp action jumped on UCF under a field goal and bet it through zero at one point, and that shouldn’t be ignored.
After all, UCF clobbered West Virginia, 45-13, at home just two weeks before.
Weigman accounted for three turnovers last week and put two additional balls on the turf, while the Houston defense gave up more than 250 rushing yards on 53 carries.
This is Houston’s seventh consecutive game, six against Big 12 foes, and that can wear on a team.
And that’s how you have an outing in which an opposing team runs the ball 53 times for 250 yards.
But UCF doesn’t have that kind of offensive line or run game.
This isn’t Gus Malzahn calling the plays, and the Knights’ offensive line doesn’t generate much of a push up front — even in the 45-13 win over WVU, the Mountaineers doubled up the Knights in Line Yards.
Rather than bet against the heavy early line movement on the spread, I’m looking to bet the over here.
Houston is playing on tired legs — we saw that plenty with the line getting bullied and with several missed tackles on defense — which could lead to some cheap UCF scores.
I also think the Knights are a bit overvalued for a team that hasn’t shown much outside of that WVU game. Houston is undervalued coming off a game in which 17 points came off four turnovers — an irregularity for the 2025 Cougars.
Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 48)
Houston vs UCF Betting Trends
