The Indiana Hoosiers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Saturday, Dec. 6. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ohio State is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Indiana, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +164 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here’s my Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction
- Indiana vs. Ohio State Pick: Indiana +4.5 or Better
My Ohio State vs. Indiana best bet is on the Hoosiers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Indiana vs Ohio State Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +164 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -205 |
- Indiana vs Ohio State Spread: Ohio State -4.5, Indiana +4.5
- Indiana vs Ohio State Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Indiana vs Ohio State Moneyline: Indiana +164, Ohio State -205
Indiana vs Ohio State College Football Betting Preview
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Undefeated Regular Season
A run of 50-burgers against Maryland and UCLA came with a cost as Indiana completed its undefeated season.
Injuries mounted, and a close field-goal victory over Penn State forced head coach Curt Cignetti to dial it back in order to get ready for the Big Ten Championship.
As of writing, the left guard Drew Evans and wideout E.J. Williams Jr. remain questionable.
Indiana is a run-first offense, utilizing the ground game with a heavy amount of inside zone with running back Roman Hemby. The Hoosiers have lined up for gap blocking assignments with Kaelon Black as the primary runner in the concept.
Both Hemby and Black average more than 3.6 yards after first contact, combining for 38 runs over 10 yards.
No offense in college football has spent more time in standard downs than Indiana, evidenced by the shortest third-down distance with an average of 5.3 yards to go.
The Big Ten Championship will have a major impact on the Heisman Trophy race, as Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza leads all contenders.
The Cal transfer has been the best in the country, doubling his touchdown total from 2024 while lowering his turnover-worthy play rate to a snug 2.5%.
Mendoza has struggled down the stretch despite throwing five interceptions on the season, as six of his nine turnover-worthy plays have come in the past four games.
On the other side, Indiana's 4-2-5 defense has put up elite numbers this season, coming in as the best unit nationally in Havoc and Finishing Drives allowed.
Indiana crushes opponents using the rush, particularly on zone-read attempts. The Hoosiers create a negative EPA against all run concepts, averaging a 59% Success Rate against outside and inside zone.
No defense may play as much zone coverage as Indiana, which pivots to man on just 8% of defensive snaps.
The Hoosiers have been fantastic in limiting explosives as a top-25 defensive pass EPA unit, but the defense has allowed big runs on the ground.
Indiana ranks 122nd against rush explosives and 71st in opponent standard downs explosives. One of the biggest indicators of success against Indiana is the ability to push the defense with a strong ground game.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Can OSU Keep Rolling?
Ohio State left no doubt in its undefeated season as it beat Michigan for the first time since 2019. The Wolverines were stuffed on nearly half of their rushing attempts and produced zero explosives with just one methodical drive in nine possessions.
Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's 4-2-5 defense has dominated inside zone with one of the best numbers nationally in limiting explosive plays.
Although safety Caleb Downs' total tackles have been nearly cut in half from 2024, the junior has produced as many "stops," which are defined as a complete failure by the offense, per PFF.
There is an outside chance for quarterback Julian Sayin to win the Heisman Trophy with a solid box score. The sophomore comes in as the most accurate passer in the nation in regard to On-Target Rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
In 348 dropbacks, Sayin has produced a minuscule 1.4% turnover-worthy play rate with a small bump to 2.2% with a pressured pocket.
Wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate both returned to the starting lineup against Michigan, each notching a touchdown in 11 combined targets.
Running back Bo Jackson has come on down the stretch, leading an offense that ranks 12th nationally in Rushing Success Rate. The freshman has just 13 attempts that went over 15 yards, with six of them coming in the last three games.
The Ohio State offensive line ranks 36th in Line Yards, so Jackson has provided the highlight yards with a season average of 4.3 yards after first contact.
Indiana vs Ohio State Pick, Betting Analysis
There aren't many discrepancies between Indiana and Ohio State, ranking 45th and 46th, respectively, in strength of schedule.
Both squads boast top-10 ranks in nearly every offensive and defensive category, including Success Rate and in the red zone. They're also the top two programs nationally in third-down conversions.
The easiest way to handicap this game is to look at blemishes in the advanced numbers to see if the opposing team can expose any weaknesses in the Big Ten Championship.
Ohio State has a mid-FBS rank of 68th in Offensive Stuff Rate, a signal that its zone read concepts may be fruitless against an Indiana defense that sits top-four in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The Hoosiers dominate zone read and rarely allow explosives, but there's one concept that could generate yardage. Indiana has a mid-FBS rank against inside zone when used with a two-tight end set.
Ohio State has run inside zone with 12 personnel on 58 attempts this season, generating a high 62% Success Rate.
The biggest question is whether offensive coordinator Brian Hartline goes ground-and-pound with a two-tight end set or takes to the skies with a healthy Tate and Smith.
Indiana owns a top-10 coverage grade and ranks 26th in pass breakups plus interceptions. The nickel defense flips between Cover 3 and Cover 2 depending on down and distance.
Sayin is one of the few quarterbacks in college football to have success against Cover 2, posting a 66% Success Rate and one of the highest EPA numbers of any quarterback.
On the other side, Patricia will use a combination of man, Cover 3 and Cover 1 to combat Indiana's passing offense. Mendoza has produced a minimum 56% Success Rate against those specific concepts, and it goes up to 70% against Ohio State's preferred base of Cover 3.
While Sayin is the top quarterback in On-Target Rate, Mendoza comes in as the third-most accurate passer in the nation.
The bread and butter of the Indiana offense is the usage of inside zone in 11 personnel with a 67% Success Rate. There's reason to think the Hoosiers can stay in standard downs, as Ohio State produces just a 52% Success Rate against inside zone with a single tight end.
As Hemby owns the lion's share of zone read, Black will line up in gap or man blocking attempts. Ohio State has also been mid-FBS in defending man-blocking run concepts with a 52% Success Rate.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings have the number spot on the current market, with Ohio State listed as a four-point favorite.
However, there's a signal that Indiana will win the battle on the ground through its run concepts, while Sayin should produce against the Hoosiers' Cover 2.
With ball control expected to be on Indiana's side — plus a much higher Special Teams SP+ rank — the Hoosiers are a live underdog that could shake up the College Football Playoff rankings.
Pick: Indiana +4.5 or Better
Indiana vs Ohio State Betting Trends
