Iowa as Home Underdogs: Results, Trends and Analysis for Michigan vs. Iowa Week 5

Iowa as Home Underdogs: Results, Trends and Analysis for Michigan vs. Iowa Week 5 article feature image

David K Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Kirk Ferentz.

The Iowa Hawkeyes love being underdogs at Kinnick Stadium.

The Hawkeyes are in that spot this Saturday as they face No. 4 Michigan as an 11-point underdog.

When the Hawkeyes are home underdogs, they've gone 10-7-2 against the spread since 2005; but the better the opponent, the better they seem to play.

Iowa as Home Underdogs

Iowa is 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog against teams ranked No. 7 or better in the AP Poll.

Of those seven games, the Hawkeyes have won four of them outright.

And it gets even better when the spread climbs to 10 or higher.

The Hawkeyes were double-digit 'dogs in three of the seven games in which they were catching points at Kinnick against top-seven foes. They covered the spread in all three of those games and won two of them outright.

The lone loss came against Penn State in 2017 when they were 13-point underdogs and lost by two.

Although it's a small sample size, potentially full of noise, Action Network college football analyst Stuckey believes there's some substance around the Iowa trend.

"Not only do the Hawkeyes have an incredible home field advantage, they tend to win all of the other phases of the game: Penalties, special teams and turnovers; those add up," he said.

"Plus, given Iowa's style and limitations, the totals are usually super low, implying games with fewer possessions."

Iowa has a unique opportunity to keep that streak alive as it opened as a 4.5-point 'dog on a lookahead line.

Now that the line has moved to double digits, it's difficult to look past them.

The defense is good enough to compete with the likes of Michigan; it's the offense that needs to show up.

The Hawkeyes rank 121st out of 131 FBS programs by averaging 17 points per game. They're also 124th in passing yards (131) and 116th in rushing yards per game (101.5).

The total for Saturday's Michigan vs. Iowa game is 42.5, one week after the Hawkeyes played in a game with the lowest total in college football history.

Check out all the Week 5 odds here.

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