The Jacksonville State Gamecocks take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, on Wednesday, Oct. 29. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Jacksonville State is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, comes in as a +6 underdog and is +185 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 points.
Here are my Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, October 29.
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Prediction
- Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Pick: Middle Tennessee +6
My Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State best bet is on the Blue Raiders to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
- Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Spread: Jacksonville State -6, Middle Tennessee +6
- Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Moneyline: Jacksonville State -230, Middle Tennessee +185
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee College Football Betting Preview
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview: Strengths Being Countered
Jacksonville State’s offense presents a contrasting profile of strengths and weaknesses.
In passing efficiency, the Gamecocks rank 125th in EPA Per Pass, while the opposing defense ranks 129th in EPA Per Pass allowed.
The Gamecocks are much more effective in the running game. It's their bread and butter.
They may also have to rely more on their ground attack once again, with quarterback Caden Creel still questionable after leaving their last game with a UCL injury in his non-throwing arm.
Jacksonville State ranks seventh nationally in EPA Per Rush stands at 0.19, which is critical against a Middle Tennessee that sits in the top 35 in the same category.
When it comes to third- and fourth-down success, Jacksonville State converts on 47.4% of attempts, good for 52nd nationally. MTSU, meanwhile, allows the same conversion rate of 47.4%, which places it outside the top 100.
It's also important to note that while the MTSU defense may not look strong on paper, it's a tough team to beat on late downs. One of Jacksonville State's notable strengths is its ability to limit long distances on third down, which gets neutralized here.
Several players on defense, including linebackers Isaac Walker and Mac Sanders and defensive lineman Talan Carter, are questionable or unavailable. That'll provide a boost to the MTSU offense, which has struggled to find its footing throughout the season.
In this game, I see a team's strengths that are prone to being neutralized by the Blue Raiders, especially on the ground.
Even if Creel suits up, Jax State's poor passing attack won't be able to take advantage of a bad MTSU secondary, which will cause many drives to stall.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: A Good Matchup
Middle Tennessee’s offense faces a Jacksonville State defense that's a middle-of-the-pack unit, which is a breath of fresh air for a group that has lacked consistency throughout the season.
In the passing game, Jacksonville State ranks 77th in EPA Per Pass allowed, while Middle Tennessee’s passing offense sits 95th in EPA Per Pass.
Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato needs to be more consistent, and the Blue Raiders easily could've stolen that game against Delaware last week.
The larger challenge is on the ground, as Jacksonville State’s rush defense gives up -0.05 EPA Per Rush, while Middle Tennessee’s rushing offense is at -0.13 EPA Per Rush, outside the top 120 in the FBS.
However, the Gamecocks give up 45.3% of available yards, which ranks outside the top 75. I can see the Blue Raiders offense generating more consistent drives throughout the contest for that reason.
On third downs, the Blue Raiders typically face long-yardage scenarios, averaging 7.5 yards to go (113th).
That's disastrous against a Jacksonville State team that's excellent when it comes to late-down defense. If the Blue Raiders can stay ahead of the chains, I expect them to put points on the board.
What's most important is that the highlight of the matchup is the MTSU defense. That unit's metrics may look horrific, but it does an outstanding job of shutting down the one area of offense where the Gamecocks thrive.
Since the Blue Raiders should stifle the rushing attack, I expect them to have ample opportunities on offense to keep this game close.
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Pick, Betting Analysis
There's a lot of injury uncertainty on the JSU side, but either way, I don't like the Gamecocks on the road here. Despite its record, Middle Tennessee has been more competitive than it appears.
The Blue Raiders force long third-down situations and limit available yards, two areas that tend to keep games close when facing a run-heavy offense. This is setting up a game flow that will work in its favor and keep the matchup close.
This line feels inflated for a Jacksonville State team that hasn’t shown it can win comfortably when its passing game stalls.
Middle Tennessee’s defense should do enough to keep things manageable, and even with a banged-up receiving corps, the Raiders are capable of trading possessions and keeping this one within a single score.
Whether Creel suits up for the Gamecocks or not, I'm backing the Blue Raiders catching six points at home. They fit the profile of a team that can give the Gamecocks fits
Pick: Middle Tennessee +6
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Betting Trends
