College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 7 Bets for Alabama vs Tennessee, Wisconsin vs UCLA, More

If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.

As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.

Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.

I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you're following along there for plays early in the week that may move. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each wager to and purposefully waited on most this week until they were more widely available.

Last Saturday's card finished 7-5 with all of the results feeling just, which is always nice. I'll sign up for that every single week.

However, keep in mind I obviously won't hit 63% all season, so, as always, bet responsibly. There will be an inevitable disaster week. After all, we are still betting on college kids playing a game with an oblong ball.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my 12 favorite Week 7 spots, starting with a trio of noon kicks and finishing with a pair of late-night clashes.

• 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
• 2026: 34-20-1 (63.0%)
• Overall: 257-198-4 (56.5%)

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 7.

College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Indiana +3.5
	12 p.m.	Ball State +7.5
	12 p.m.	LSU -11.5
	1:30 p.m.	Central Michigan +7
	3:30 p.m.	Air Force ML -106
	3:30 p.m.	Duke -3
	3:30 p.m.	Virginia Tech -9.5
	3:30 p.m.	Tennessee +8.5
	7:30 p.m.	Wisconsin +3
	7:30 p.m.	Oklahoma -6.5
	10:15 p.m.	Colorado +15.5
	10:30 p.m.	California +10

Indiana +3.5 vs. Ohio State

12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

You're going to give me the hook at home with the best coach in college football? Yes, please.

I understand Ohio State has revenge on its mind from last year's Big Ten Championship loss, but this is a coin-flip game, in my humble opinion.

I don't think either of these teams (at the moment) is as good as the versions we saw last season.

Indiana's offense just isn't as efficient (though the Hoosiers are much more explosive) and is a bit weaker in run blocking and at tight end.

The Hoosiers also are a bit more vulnerable on the back end, where they really miss D'Angelo Ponds, Louis Moore and Devan Boykin.

Meanwhile, Ohio State still has Heisman frontrunner Jeremiah Smith (who could go down as the greatest wide receiver in college football history), but the supporting cast around him has taken a step back.

The Buckeyes are also nowhere near as dominant on the defensive end as last year's historically great stop unit. Ohio State is struggling to stop the run and can't generate any consistent pass rush, which I believe is the key to this game.

Both of these quarterbacks are vulnerable when pressured. That's when the mistakes come from Josh Hoover, and Julian Sayin's lack of mobility comes into play (15% Success Rate on scrambles against Iowa and Maryland).

Look no further than last year's meetings with Indiana and Miami to end the season. Sayin took five sacks in each contest and threw three interceptions combined.

Well, this Indiana front (that will use lots of stunts and sim pressures) can still generate pressure at an elite level, and Ohio State will have to contain that group without its best offensive tackle.

And given Ohio State's struggles in the run game (123rd in explosive run rate), Sayin is certainly going to face many known passing situations, which should kill plenty of drives and potentially lead to some interceptions or fumbles (Indiana is overdue to eventually recover one this season).

Under pressure last year, Sayin completed just 58% of his passes compared to 82% when kept clean. That delta is over 20% once again this season with two big-time throws to five turnover-worthy plays.

The best defense for Jeremiah Smith (who's going to get his against anybody) is to pressure Sayin.

Conversely, I expect Indiana to have more success running the ball on early downs against Ohio State, which ranks 44th in Success Rate against opposing ground games after finishing seventh in that area last year.

That will keep Hoover out of as many obvious passing situations.

However, even when he does have to drop back on third downs, Ohio State just isn't getting to opposing quarterbacks and will now have to face an IU offensive line that has been absolutely elite in pass protection.

As a result, Hoover should have time to find his elite wide receivers on the outside who should have some exploitable matchups.

Look, Ohio State could easily win this game, but I have to take the hook here. Ultimately, I believe the game comes down to pressure with both of these quarterbacks, and I just trust the Indiana offensive and defensive lines more.

I also don't mind backing Cignetti as a 'dog of over a field goal in the biggest home game in program history.

Pick: Indiana +3.5 (Play to +3)

Ball State +7.5 at Bowling Green

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

Bowling Green has started out 2-0 in league play, which may come as a surprise to some after how inept the team looked to start the season. However, I'm not buying the mini resurgence.

The Falcons benefited from facing Miami (OH) (in a game it won in the final seconds) with its third-string quarterback and then Sacramento State (the worst team in FBS) with its backup quarterback.

They also got a very friendly whistle in both victories, with the RedHawks and Hornets combining for 19 penalties for 188 yards (many drive-extending defensive flags) to just nine for 89 themselves.

This is still a horrendous BG offense with a D-II transfer quarterback who has a 2:8 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio playing behind a very vulnerable rebuilt offensive line with a lack of reliable weapons on the outside.

The Falcons do have some talent on the defense (although they did lose their best cornerback to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago), led by edge Myles Bradley, but they just don't have the offensive personnel to consistently move the ball.

They also play at a very slow pace, which makes them unappetizing as a favorite of a touchdown-plus unless they're playing Sacramento State.

Don't get me wrong — Ball State is an atrocious ball club.

The Cardinals have started out 0-2 in league play with double-digit losses vs. Toledo and Kent State, but keep in mind they played the latter with a backup quarterback. It's a much different offense with a healthy Keldric Luster under center.

Last week, as a five-touchdown underdog at ranked Northwestern, Ball State finished with 360 total yards of offense.

The defense has plenty of holes, but the run defense is decent enough to hold its own against the impotent Falcons, who want to establish the run under head coach Eddie George.

Keep in mind BG laid a similar price last week against Sacramento State's backup quarterback (who didn't even start at Idaho State last season), and I have Ball State power-rated four points better than the Hornets (at full strength) on a neutral field.

Plus, the Cardinals don't have any major travel to worry about.

This looks like a prime opportunity to fade Bowling Green following three straight covers with the first coming in a superb situational spot, while the last two came against second- and third-string quarterbacks.

Pick: Ball State +7.5 (Play to +6)

LSU -11.5 vs. Mississippi State

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

Mississippi State had a bye last week, while LSU played an overtime game in Lexington. Despite that slight scheduling edge, I believe the Bulldogs get their doors blown off in Baton Rouge.

Not only will the Bulldogs be without a few key defenders, but star quarterback Kamario Taylor also may not play due to injury.

If that's the case, freshman Parker Puckett would make his first career start, and it would be a significant downgrade at the most important position on the field.

And even if Taylor does suit up, his mobility will likely be limited due to the turf toe he's currently dealing with.

And he's just not the same caliber of player if he can't use his legs, especially against an aggressive Blake Baker defense that will undoubtedly send an abundance of pressure to exploit Mississippi State's major weakness at both tackle positions.

Look no further than Mississippi State's 56-23 loss vs. Alabama when Taylor was clearly hampered.

In order to move the ball on this LSU defense that ranks in the top-10 in most pass statistics, teams need to move the ball on the ground.

College Football Picks, Havoc Rankings: Our Week 7 Prediction for Mississippi State vs. LSURead now

Well, without a fully healthy Taylor and potentially stud running back Fluff Bothwell (it's another substantial downgrade to backup Kolin Wilson), I just don't think the Bulldogs have the horses to get that done on a consistent basis.

That will allow LSU's defense to pin its ears back on known passing situations against an offensive line that won't hold up, especially on the left side.

And on the other side of the ball, Sam Leavitt and Company shouldn't have any issues moving the ball, especially through the air.

And LSU, which already has a pair of losses on its resume, needs style points whenever it can get them from here on out, so don't expect Lane Kiffin to take his foot off the gas, especially in front of a home crowd that can't be pleased with the start to the season.

Pick: LSU -11.5 (Play to -14)

Central Michigan +7 vs. Western Michigan

1:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

Last year, Central Michigan lost to Akron at home in head coach Matt Drinkall's first season. He came out and said that loss has kept him up at night for months.

Well, he certainly had the Chips ready to roll in the rematch two weeks ago, as they got their revenge with ease in a 41-17 blowout victory.

Well, I'm sure last year's loss to Western Michigan has caused even more sleepless nights over the past year. The Broncos ended up winning that game, 24-21, following a 70-yard game-winning drive in the final minutes of the fourth quarter that required multiple fourth-down conversions.

Ultimately, that result may have been the difference between CMU and WMU going to the MAC Championship game. I expect Drinkall to have his team fully focused from the jump at home, where they've performed much better this season.

Central Michigan has one of the most run-heavy offenses in the entire country, ranking third in run rate if you exclude the three service academies.

It's paramount the Chips stay ahead of the chains and avoid too many obvious passing situations for their limited aerial attack.

Similar to what Rice did against WMU, I think the Chips (top-20 in EPA Per Rush) can grind out enough yards on early downs to sustain an adequate number of drives to keep this close against a Western Michigan defense that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in negative play rate and in the third percentile in Line Yards.

CMU should get a consistent push at the line of scrimmage when on offense.

On the other side of the ball, nobody will confuse CMU's defense with the '85 Bears. However, the Chips can hang in there against a very limited Western Michigan offense.

The Broncos will also have their fair share of success on the ground, but I just can't pass up the touchdown at home in a matchup of two run-heavy snails. Points should come at a premium, which certainly makes the home pup more appealing.

Lastly, don't be surprised if CMU benefits from some fumble luck.

On the season, Western Michigan has lost only two of its 12 fumbles while recovering four of its opponent's seven. Conversely, Central Michigan has lost all six of its fumbles while recovering only four of the 10 loose balls from its opponents.

There's just not much separating all of these MAC teams in 2026. I believe this one will play out similar to WMU's game in Buffalo when the Bulls were stopped at the goal line in the final seconds of a 20-17 loss.

Pick: Central Michigan +7 or Better

Air Force ML -106 vs. UNLV

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

It's a small sample size, but I'm an Evan Medders believer.

Following Liam Szarka's season-ending injury, Medders took over as the new starter under center for the Falcons. In his first career start, he led Air Force to a dominant victory on the road last week at NIU despite not attempting a pass.

Can Air Force duplicate that effort this week vs. the Rebels? I believe so.

UNLV has a legit pass defense that ranks No. 1 overall at the G6 level per some metrics. Well, that's not really applicable this week vs. Air Force, which literally just won a road game without a single passing yard.

The UNLV run defense is much more vulnerable, which makes this a nightmare matchup for Dan Mullen's group. While the Rebels rank top-five nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed, they rank just 74th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.

They also sit outside the top 100 in tackling and run defense, per PFF. That's not ideal against an Air Force triple option that leads the country in Success Rate. Meanwhile, the very inconsistent UNLV offense ranks 120th in overall Success Rate.

The Falcons can control the clock throughout and keep the chains moving against a suspect UNLV defense that had no idea how to defend the triple option last year under defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, who spent almost his entire career at the NFL level.

Air Force ended up losing a wild shootout in Vegas, 51-48, last season but did whatever it wanted on offense. In fact, the Falcons actually outgained the Rebels, 603-597, rushing for 428 yards on 66 attempts.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

They can use that same formula on Saturday. And while the defense will face an athletic mismatch, that unit is much sturdier and more experienced than last year's disastrous stop unit. Plus, this UNLV offense isn't as good as last year's squad.

UNLV has won three straight games, but the Rebels haven't been as impressive as the final scores may indicate in that trio of victories:

• Akron was down to its third-string quarterback and down all of its best defenders
• Cal lost its starting quarterback to injury in the first half and still outgained UNLV, 464-345. The Bears went 1-of-4 on fourth down.
• North Dakota State lost, 13-7, in Vegas last week, but finished with a 300-255 yardage edge. The Bison threw three interceptions (including a pick-six) and went 0-of-2 on fourth down.

I'm still not a believer in Jackson Arnold, who has especially struggled on the road in his career. I'm not sure he can take full advantage of some of the advantages UNLV will have on the outside against the Air Force secondary.

This looks like a perfect spot to fade UNLV after a pair of misleading home wins over Cal and North Dakota State.

Pick: Air Force ML -106 (Play to -120)

Duke -3 vs. North Carolina

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

I think we're getting the Blue Devils at a cheap price in a home rivalry matchup vs. the Tar Heels. Part of that has to do with some injury uncertainty surrounding Duke's offense.

Star running back Nate Sheppard and starting center Matt Craycraft are both listed as questionable on the availability report. However, I'm operating under the assumption that both will play.

Sheppard, who ranks fifth nationally in rushing yards while averaging 6.3 yards per carry, is the heartbeat of the Duke offense. He's currently dealing with a foot injury but still managed 190 yards on the ground in a hard-luck loss at Georgia Tech last week.

After the game, he said he dealt with the injury all game and should be good to go. He obviously could miss this game, which would be a massive blow to the Blue Devils, but I took the risk and backed them.

If he does indeed suit up (and I believe he will), he should carve up a UNC defense that can't defend the run (101st in Rushing Success Rate allowed) due to subpar linebacker play.

The Tar Heels have done a tremendous job of limiting explosive pass plays through the air, but that strength won't really help against this iteration of the Duke offense.

Additionally, the UNC defense is currently dealing with an abundance of key injuries up front and in the secondary. It will definitely be without a couple of defensive back starters and likely have to make do without some contributors along the defensive line.

That should open up some opportunities for Walker Eget through the air, while Sheppard (hopefully) carries most of the load.

On the other side of the ball, Duke's defense has also excelled at limiting explosive plays. That means UNC will have to methodically drive the field.

I'm not sure it's fully equipped to do so with a lackluster rushing attack (108th EPA) and a quarterback in Billy Edwards who really struggles under pressure (42% completion percentage compared to 68% when kept clean), which is extremely problematic against a Manny Diaz defense.

Edwards (who has one big-time throw to six turnover-worthy plays) is just much more likely to make critical mistakes than Eget, who has the complete opposite BTT-TWP ratio on the season at 6-1.

This also looks like a prime spot to fade the beat-up Tar Heels following back-to-back physical games against Notre Dame and Pitt.

UNC did pick up a massive top-25 road win last week, but it obviously benefited from facing the Panthers' backup quarterback, yet were still outgained by 100 yards (Pitt went 0-of-4 on fourth down).

Give me the home team with the much better rush offense and defense in a game where we likely won't see many explosive plays. Just keep your fingers crossed on Sheppard and Craycraft.

Pick: Duke -3 or Better

Virginia Tech -9.5 vs. Georgia Tech

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network

This is a good buy-low / sell-high spot on the Hokies, who have suffered back-to-back hard-luck losses against Cal and Pitt.

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech picked up its first FBS win (thanks to a missed chip-shot field goal by Duke) in a slam-dunk home spot last week.

I'm still not a believer in this Yellow Jackets roster, which is now dealing with a handful of key injuries on both sides of the ball.

The Hokie defense (which leads the nation in tackles for loss) should dominate the line of scrimmage on early downs and then create plenty of Havoc on late downs when Georgia Tech has the ball.

Virginia Tech's offense, then, should hit plenty of explosives through the air against a GT defense that ranks 122nd in EPA Per Pass allowed.

I think this VT offense is a bit underrated at the moment. Keep in mind one of their games against BC was played in unplayable conditions in basically a monsoon

I don't love fading Brent Key as an underdog, but this Georgia Tech team is at a severe talent disadvantage in this matchup.

And keep in mind, the Yellow Jackets have only played one true road game so far this season and lost outright at lowly Stanford, allowing 34 points to a Tree offense that has scored 10 combined points in the two games since.

I think we are getting the Hokies cheap in a game where James Franklin will want to flex his muscles in front of the home crowd following back-to-back close losses. Let's just hope John Love remembers how to make field goals!

Pick: Virginia Tech -9.5 (Play to -10)

Tennessee +8.5 vs. Alabama

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

This is a super tricky spot for the Tide, who are coming off of an emotionally and physically draining loss to Georgia in a game that took a full 60-minute effort.

I thought the Tide fared well in a game where a number of fumbles and calls didn't go their way, but I could see them coming out a bit flat in a very tough place to play.

Keep in mind, Alabama lost outright as a massive favorite in a similar spot two years ago at Vanderbilt following an all-out effort vs. Georgia at home.

Additionally, the Tide will not be at full strength for this one. They will be without starting center Racin Delgatty. That will force sophomore Mal Waldrep Jr., who has only taken snaps at left guard this season, into snapping duties this weekend.

That could become particularly problematic against Xavier Gilliam, who has been one of the best interior defensive linemen in all of college football this season. In fact, PFF has the Penn State transfer as the highest-rated overall defensive tackle through six weeks.

Alabama will also be missing star wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, which will make life easier on the Tennessee secondary.

Not only will the Tide miss his raw explosive playmaking ability on the outside, but he opened up many other spots on the field for others.

In order to slow down this electric Alabama offense, you need to limit the explosive passes and put pressure on Keelon Russell, whose superpower is those deep shots.

Well, so far, Jim Knowles' defense has been elite in both departments. The Vols' defense actually ranks No. 1 in explosive passing allowed.

Now, you can question the schedule of opposing offenses faced so far, which is fair, but the task at hand will certainly be easier without Delgatty and Coleman-Williams.

Most of the questions surrounding Tennessee come on the other side of the ball, where the offense has looked lost for long stretches. Fortunately, Josh Heupel is sticking with redshirt freshman George MacIntyre under center this week.

While he hasn't lit the world on fire and will still make some mistakes (missed a safety on a bad interception last week vs. Arkansas), it's been a much cleaner operation than when true freshman Faizon Brandon was out there.

The primary difference is MacIntyre isn't holding the ball for an eternity like Brandon, who took a whopping 10 sacks vs. Texas.

On the season, MacIntyre's average time to throw is 2.64 seconds, which is significantly less than Brandon's 3.3 seconds (an eternity). Among 147 FBS quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks, only Florida State's Ashton Daniels and Coastal Carolina's Deuce Bailey have a higher average time to throw than Brandon.

Can MacIntyre hit a few explosives through the air against an Alabama defense that has been vulnerable in that area? I believe so.

But this is now a run-first offense (that's also playing slower, which helps in the underdog role) that ranks in the top six nationally in both EPA and Success Rate with a potent 1-2 punch of DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris, who both average over six yards per carry despite not getting much help from the passing attack.

Can they keep that success going against Alabama? The Tide have been very stout against the run statistically, but keep in mind Georgia didn't have its top two backs (yet still averaged 7 yards per carry) and Mississippi State played with a limited Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell.

The Tide also may miss the presence of Terrance Green up front this week along that defensive line.

Bottom line, this is a tricky spot for a shorthanded Alabama team against a defense that matches up very well on paper. Give me Rocky Top at home in a game I project under a touchdown.

Pick: Tennessee +8.5 (Play to +7.5)

Wisconsin +3 at UCLA

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC

This is the most obvious situational spot of the week.

You have UCLA coming off one of its biggest wins in recent program history at Oregon, while Wisconsin comes in fresh off a bye.

Additionally, UCLA lost starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to a season-ending injury last week in Eugene.

That means the Bruins will likely turn to backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, who transferred in from Cal Poly where he had a 9:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2025.

More importantly, the loss of Nico may really hurt UCLA's elite rushing attack. While Dieffenbach has a bit of mobility, he doesn't have the same level of athleticism as Nico, which might make life more difficult for Wayne Knight and the stable of Bruin backs.

Following Nico's departure last week, UCLA ran for just 85 yards on 25 attempts. Plus, the defense likely won't have to respect the UCLA passing attack at all, so it can dedicate even more resources to the box.

It's just hard to envision the Bruins having much success on offense against a very underrated Wisconsin defense (ninth nationally in Success Rate allowed) that features a much-improved secondary and a superb linebacker corps that cleans everything up in the run game.

Not only is UCLA coming off a massive win and down to its backup quarterback, but there are other potential signs that this marks a pretty good spot to fade the undefeated Bruins.

College Football Picks, Predictions: Expert Week 7 Bets for Ohio State vs. Indiana, Notre Dame vs. BYU, MoreRead now

They've certainly benefited from a number of hidden breaks in their schedule:

• beat Cal in the opener when the Bears still had their now-demoted play-caller
• San Diego State has turned out to be much worse than anticipated
• caught Purdue in a brutal situational spot (Boilermakers still had nearly 500 yards of offense)
• played Oregon's backup quarterback who basically looked completely lost. The Ducks had seven turnovers and still had a chance to tie the game late.

UCLA also leads the nation by a wide margin with 3.8 takeaways per game. Only one other team (New Mexico) averages more than 2.6.

I'm not sure the defense can keep up that pace, although Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph can certainly get loose with the ball. Regardless, turnover regression looms on the horizon for Bob Chesney's bunch.

As long as Joseph can avoid costly turnovers, Wisconsin should be right in this game until the very end.

On the other side, UCLA is down to a backup quarterback facing a stingy defense that can limit this potent Bruins rushing attack without the threat of Nico's legs and arm.

Points should come at a premium in this one, so the 3 is super important even if you have to buy it up to -125.

Pick: Wisconsin +3 or Better

Oklahoma -6.5 vs. Kentucky

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

You could argue this is a letdown spot for both teams.

Oklahoma is coming off an unlikely upset win over Texas (that took multiple non-offensive scores), while Kentucky became the first team in college football history to win back-to-back games in overtime on a two-point conversion.

However, I believe this sets up as a much more difficult spot for the Wildcats, who have had two straight all-out overtime efforts, while Oklahoma had a bye week prior to the Red River Rivalry and will be playing this game at home in prime time.

Oklahoma also has a chance to get a bit healthier this week, but the offense might still be a bit undervalued (even if still bad) after finding its footing late vs. Texas.

I can't stress enough how important that result was for Mateer, who made a couple of key throws to pull off that upset. Leading up to that moment, he looked completely scared to trust his reads and couldn't even hold on to the ball vs. Georgia.

Getting an injection of confidence could go a long way.

Plus, this is an Oklahoma offense that has played an absolute gauntlet of opposing defenses that includes Michigan, Texas and Georgia. This will be a major step down in class compared to those three elite units.

While the offense found a pulse late against the Longhorns, it's still all about the defense in Norman.

For my money, the Sooners have either the best or second-best defense in the country (Notre Dame), so this will be a major step up in class for Kentucky.

No other defense is even in the same neighborhood as Oklahoma's series death rate of 55% (three-and-out or turnover forced).

Will Stein has done a tremendous job with this Kentucky offense (also, look at Oregon's offense after he left), but the 'Cats need to run the ball to set up play-action.

I'm just not sure they'll have much success on early downs against an elite Oklahoma run defense that ranks in the top five in almost every single category.

That means Kenny Minchey (who only has one big-time throw to five turnover-worthy plays on the season) will have to find success through the air in the straight dropback game in known passing situations against an Oklahoma defense that leads the nation in pressure rate.

That's bad news for Minchey, who has completed just 45% of his passes under pressure compared to 73% when kept clean.

He's done almost all of his damage on play-action (nine TDs, 0 INTs, 79.5% completion rate), which is basically play design from Stein.

Without play-action, Minchey has completed just 58% of his passes with only two touchdowns and one interception.

Well, this is a game where the run game likely won't be churning out yards on a consistent basis, so he'll have to find success on third downs without play-action, where his completion percentage has fallen off a cliff.

That spells disaster against an aggressive OU defense that I expect to take the ball away multiple times.

I hate laying points with this Oklahoma offense, but I like the matchup for its defense against a potentially gassed UK team and project this over a touchdown.

For what it's worth, I also split some of my bet with Kentucky team total under 17.5 points in case we just get an absolute rock fight.

As long as Mateer doesn't throw the game away (which is always a possibility), I believe the Sooners hold the Kentucky offense in check and win this game by at least a touchdown.

Keep in mind the Sooners will have a massive special teams edge, especially at kicker, which could make all the difference in a game where points could come at a premium.

Pick: Oklahoma -6.5 or Better

Colorado +15.5 vs. Utah

10:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

I love backing home teams off a bye against a team they got embarrassed by on the road the previous season. That's certainly applicable here, as Colorado got smoked last year in Salt Lake City, 53-7.

So, I'm reluctantly going back to the well with the Buffs, who burned me as 14-point home underdogs two weeks ago vs. Texas Tech despite outgaining the Red Raiders, 375-314, in large part due to four second-half interceptions, including a horrific pick-six in the end zone.

Former Ute Isaac Wilson, who threw three of those picks, will get the start once again under center.

He'll obviously need to avoid throwing the ball to the red team this week, so hopefully Colorado cleaned some things up during a much-needed bye week after making an in-season quarterback change under a new offensive coordinator who installed a completely different scheme.

This is just too good of a spot to pass up in a game I also project under two touchdowns.

While Colorado had a misleading loss in its most recent game, Utah had a misleading victory over Kansas last week at home.

The Jayhawks got outscored, 14-0, in the fourth quarter of a 17-point loss but got stopped at the goal line twice in that final frame. They did plenty of things on offense with misdirection and motion that gave the Utah defense fits.

Colorado runs a lot of similar stuff under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion. Plus, can we look at what other offenses Utah has faced this season besides Kansas?

• Idaho
• Arkansas
• Iowa State
• Utah State

Color me less than impressed. Per Sagarin, Utah has played the 94th-toughest schedule so far this season, while Colorado has played the eighth-most difficult slate.

Look, Utah has a very good football team with a very unique offensive scheme, but I could easily make the case that the Utes are currently the most overrated team in the country coming into Week 7, especially on defense, where I had major questions coming into the season (and still do).

Following a 5-0 ATS start to the season, I think we've reached the peak of the market on the Utes.

Colorado's run defense has shown enough prowess this season for me to feel confident about getting a few stops. Let's just hope Wilson throws the ball to his own team and the Buffs didn't leak their play sheet this week.

Pick: Colorado +15.5 (Play to +14.5)

California +10 vs. Wake Forest

10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

Head coach Jake Dickert continues to exceed expectations at Wake Forest with the Demon Deacons looking like the second-best team in the ACC so far in 2026.

Bringing in quarterback Gio Lopez from the transfer portal has been an instant hit, reuniting him with his former offensive coordinator, Rob Ezell, when the pair worked together at South Alabama.

Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton continues to squeeze the most out of his unit for a second straight season. Wake will undoubtedly have a sizable coaching edge over first-year head man Tosh Lupoi and his staff.

With that said, I believe it's finally time to sell high on the Deacs, who will make the dreaded cross-country ACC trip for its seventh straight game and have definitely benefited from a number of hidden breaks in the first half of their schedule.

• Opened the season vs. Akron, which had its quarterback ruled ineligible
• Faced a Miami defense that was decimated in the secondary
• Played an NC State team down a plethora of starters
• Needed a fourth-and-18 conversion in overtime to beat Purdue

Meanwhile, Cal's offense might still be a bit underrated in the market after changing play-callers.

During Cal's loss at UNLV, Lupoi stripped Jordan Somerville (whose only previous play-calling experience came at the 12U youth level) of his play-calling duties and turned the job over to passing game coordinator Pat McCann.

Since that point, the offense has looked much more functional with astronomically better sequencing.

Even with a backup quarterback for the majority of that contest vs. the Rebels, the Bears put up 464 yards of total offense and then followed that up with another 400-yard output in an upset win over Virginia Tech last week with Jackson Brousseau still under center.

Well, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returns this week from his concussion, and I expect the offense to continue its upward trajectory with an even higher ceiling.

Cal still lacks explosiveness, but Wake Forest's zone-heavy defense essentially eliminates any explosive plays from opposing offenses.

Teams have to methodically move the ball through the air to drive on this defense, which JKS can do with a much more competent play-caller running the show.

I believe we've reached the peak of the market on Wake Forest, so I'm selling high and backing the new-look Bears, who are trending up health-wise and have been surprisingly stout against the pass, which is critical against wide receiver Carlos Hernandez and this potent Demon Deacon passing attack.

Pick: Cal +10 (Play to +8.5)

Smart betting starts here

Tail picks the sharps are betting

Player prop projections & edges

Money percentages, profitable systems & more

SAVE $20 NOW