The James Madison Dukes take on the Liberty Flames in Lynchburg, Virginia. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
James Madison is favored by -8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. The total is set at 47 points.
Here’s my James Madison vs. Liberty prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
James Madison vs Liberty Prediction
- James Madison vs. Liberty Pick: James Madison -8.5
My Liberty vs. James Madison best bet is on the Dukes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
James Madison vs Liberty Odds
| JMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | +260 |
- James Madison vs Liberty point spread: James Madison -8.5
- James Madison vs Liberty over/under: 47 points
- James Madison vs Liberty moneyline: James Madison -330, Liberty +260
James Madison vs Liberty Preview
James Madison Dukes Betting Preview: Leaning More on Run Game
James Madison has won its last 20 games against teams from the state of Virginia, including its last five against FBS opponents.
This week, it'll take on Liberty in the "Battle of the Blue Ridge," marking the first meeting in 11 years.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III will lead the Dukes into combat and is back after accounting for over 3,040 yards, 33 touchdowns and four interceptions last season. However, that didn't stop head coach Bob Chesney from dipping into the transfer portal for quarterback Matthew Sluka.
Barnett and Sluka have split snaps at the position, though Sluka has primarily been used as a runner with 27 rushing attempts (for 113 yards and a touchdown) compared to nine passes.
Sluka's presence has led to James Madison leaning on the run even more than it did last season, at over a 60% clip to begin this season.
Running backs George Pettaway and Wayne Knight are both averaging eight yards per carry. They should find success against a Liberty defense that ranks 80th in rushing success rate allowed and 132nd in rushing explosiveness allowed.
The Dukes are allowing 19 points per game this season. Despite their loss last week, Chesney should be encouraged after holding head coach Jeff Brohm's potent Louisville offense to 264 total yards and 3.8 yards per carry.
Nose tackle Immanuel Bush is a mountain in the middle to lead the charge. He was a preseason Second Team All-Sun Belt selection, along with linebacker Charles Hedrick, who leads the team with 13 tackles.
Safety Jacob Thomas was a preseason first-team selection after recording 73 tackles and three interceptions. He's off to another fast start with nine tackles, two passes defended and an interception this season.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Tough Matchup at the Line of Scrimmage
Liberty is 21-5 over the last two seasons, which included a trip to the Fiesta Bowl. Despite the transfer of Kaidon Salter, expectations remained high with a 9.5 preseason win total.
However, the over would already be a loss if Liberty falls again, as it's gotten off to a 1-2 start with two double-digit losses.
Without Salter, Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas in the backfield, Georgia Tech transfer Evan Dickens and redshirt Caden Williams are tasked with leading the rushing attack. Dickens has run for 80 yards and a touchdown in each of the last two games and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on the year.
Junior Donte Lee Jr. looks primed for a big year, as he already has eight receptions for 187 yards and three touchdowns. Liberty has four touchdowns of 40 yards or more this season, and Lee has two of them.
Liberty ranks 37th in explosiveness this year, but has struggled with consistency from down to down.
It ranks 89th in havoc allowed, and quarterback Ethan Vasko has been sacked eight times already. The constant pressure has contributed to three interceptions, and Vasko ranks 110th in QBR. James Madison has forced two turnovers through the first two games, so protecting the ball will be pivotal.
Defensively, Liberty is 128th in havoc. It has just one sack and has yet to force a turnover against a FBS opponent this season. James Madison should have the edge on the line of scrimmage in this matchup.
James Madison vs Liberty Pick, Betting Analysis
Since the start of the 2014 season, James Madison is 11-1 following a bye week. That includes wins of 28, 20 (over North Carolina) and 31 over the last two seasons. It's also covered five of its past seven games.
Conversely, Liberty is 0-3 ATS this season and is -6 in turnover margin over the last two weeks. This will be its first home game against a FBS opponent, but it hasn't inspired much confidence this season.
Whether turnovers are even or not, I like James Madison in this matchup, and I expect a double-digit victory.
Pick: James Madison -8.5 (Play to -9.5)
