Heavy Winds Send Tuesday’s Kent State-Buffalo Over/Under Plummeting

Nov 06, 2018 5:30 PM EST
  • The Kent State-Buffalo MACtion game on Tuesday (7:30 p.m. ET) is expecting steady winds of 25 mph with gusts over 50 mph.
  • The over/under for the game opened at 57, but quickly fell to 42.5 within 40 minutes.
  • Historically, unders have hit at over a 60% rate in games with winds of at least 20 mph.

If you’re looking to bet Tuesday’s Kent State-Buffalo over/under, let’s just say you’ve lost out on a good chunk of closing line value! Well, we don’t know what the number will close at yet, but it certainly won’t be 57.

Tuesday’s MACtion game is set to be a breezy affair, as Kent State visits Buffalo to play the Bulls. Right now, the forecast calls for 25 mph sustained winds and gusts over 50 mph. Let’s just say bettors have taken notice.

Jumping on the total as a cat would a mouse, bettors caused the line to go from 57 to 42.5 at BookMaker in a span of about 37 minutes after it opened on Monday. If math isn’t your strong suit, that’s a one-half point increment just about every minute and 15 seconds on average.

Also of note, the opener was not a “mistake” that was quickly adjusted with a massive line move. The line actually did move incrementally, with the largest move being 1.5 points.

The number fell as low as 39.5 before buyback came in on the over. Since yesterday, the line has actually been steadily rising back up to 43, where it can be found at most books, now.

Bettors went nuts on this under for good reason. Historically, unders in games with 20 mph winds or higher have gone 65-36-3 (64.4%), including a win in the San Jose State-Wyoming game this past weekend.

Credit:

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Buffalo Bulls head coach Lance Leipold.

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
58.5
+8.5
59
+10.5
51.5
+15
51.5
+15
52
-18
52
-19.5
68
+13.5
68
+14
80
+2
84
+1.5
54
-3
49
-3
59
+3
56.5
+4
53.5
+3
52
+5.5
61
-17
59.5
-17
57
-7
57.5
-7
52
-24
52.5
-24
55.5
-14
54
-13.5
58.5
-18
58
-18
51
+17
51
+17
60.5
-25
58.5
-26
41
-14
40.5
-13.5
47.5
-2
47.5
-2.5
53.5
+8
54
+10.5
44
-13.5
44
-13
68
-3
67.5
-2.5