You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this year, we're rolling with the favorites in two in-state matchups.
Let's dive into our Week 3 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for North Texas vs. Texas State and Utah State vs. Utah on Saturday, Sept. 19. And be sure to download the Action Network app for additional picks and analysis.
Week 3 College Football Picks
- Texas State -2.5 vs. North Texas
- Utah -27.5 vs. Utah State
North Texas vs Texas State Pick
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -144 |
By Stuckey
Give me Texas State -2.5.
The Bobs have been snakebitten to begin the year, starting 0-2. But they've been unlucky in a big way.
Last season, they lost a bunch of overtime and close games, and this year has felt the same.
They were the better team against UTSA but turned it over at the worst times and lost in the final seconds. Texas State went 0-for-1 on fourth downs, while UTSA finished 5-of-6.
The Bobcats were also actually outgaining Texas, even when they were down 28-0.
On the other side, North Texas has looked good. The Mean Green actually outgained Indiana and then put together a dominant outing against UNLV. However, they were in a really good spot against UNLV, which played in Week 0 and then had to travel to Hawaii the week before.
The key edge here is the matchup. North Texas’s secondary is dealing with a lot of injuries, and Texas State should be able to throw on them.
Texas State has a couple of receivers listed as questionable, including top target Beau Sparks and Zechariah Sample, so there’s some uncertainty in their pass defense. It sounds like both have a decent shot of suiting up, though.
We're getting Texas State cheap here, so take the value and back the Bobs at -2.5.
Pick: Texas State -2.5
Utah State vs Utah Pick
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -102 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | +2000 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -120 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | -7000 |
I'm taking Utah. You have to see what this offense is doing to believe it — and not just because of Devon Dampier. Backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin is playing this hybrid QB/RB/slot role and is all over the field.
The Utes are running some really funky stuff in the backfield with a lot of 31 personnel (three running backs and a tight end), shifting everyone around, and it gets super confusing. Utah State just isn't built to defend that.
I'm laying the points with the Utes here. This line opened at -27.5, and I bought it; I'd still buy it at -28.
Honestly, I don't think enough eyeballs are on what Utah's doing offensively right now. Facing two quarterbacks who basically act like running backs and are happy to draw contact, the Aggies are in trouble.
Pick: Utah -27.5
