Wake and Rake: Late Steam Hitting Vanderbilt-Kentucky Matchup
John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Kentucky Wildcats wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. (1), quarterback Terry Wilson (3) and wide receiver Tavin Richardson (11)
- Kentucky is currently an 11.5-point home favorite for Saturday's matchup with Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network), while the over/under sits at 46.5.
- Using Sports Insights' betting tools, we break down how professionals are betting this game.
Not every line move is the result of sharp action. And not every professional play massively moves a number across the betting market. Sharp moves can be subtle, which is why it’s so important to have access to tools and data to help identify what exactly is moving lines.
Some games, such as Tulsa-Arkansas (12 p.m. ET) and Buffalo-Toledo (12 p.m. ET) have experienced significant line movement off and through key betting numbers. These line moves are relatively easy to diagnose.
Other games, such as Saturday’s Vanderbilt-Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET) matchup, are unlikely to catch the eyes of recreational bettors.
However, despite minimal line movement, Sports Insights betting tools reveal how professionals quietly got down on this game on Thursday afternoon.
BookMaker opened the Vanderbilt-Kentucky over/under at 48, and bettors quickly pushed it up to 48.5 early in the week. The total remained there through Thursday afternoon, and that’s when sharp bettors pounced.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals triggered a Steam Move at CRIS — one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks — explaining why this over/under has dropped to 46.5.
Steam refers to sudden and uniform line movement across the entire betting market and is usually the result of respected bettors getting down on the same side of one game at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.
Sharps are likely taking advantage of a worsening weather forecast that is now calling for sustained 15-mph to 18-mph winds throughout the games.
According to Bet Labs, the under is 471-341-12 (58%) in college football games with average winds above 13 mph, since 2005.
While BookMaker is currently at 46.5, plenty of books, including Pinnacle, are still offering 47 in Vanderbilt-Kentucky, so be sure to shop and grab this important number in over/under betting.