The Liberty Flames take on the Bowling Green Falcons in Bowling Green, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Liberty is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -235. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Liberty vs. Bowling Green prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 13.
Liberty vs Bowling Green Prediction
- Liberty vs. Bowling Green Pick: Bowling Green 1H +3.5
My Bowling Green vs. Liberty best bet is on the Falcons to cover the first-half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Liberty vs Bowling Green Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -235 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
- Liberty vs Bowling Green point spread: Liberty -6.5
- Liberty vs Bowling Green over/under: 51.5 points
- Liberty vs Bowling Green moneyline: Liberty -235, Bowling Green +190
Liberty vs Bowling Green Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Inconsistent Flames Struggling to Get it Going
Coming into this season, Liberty was the lone odds-on favorite to win its respective conference. But entering Week 3, the Flames are 1-1 in conference with two inconsistent showings.
In Week 1, it needed 21 fourth-quarter points (and 21 points off fields shorter than 50 yards) to stave off FCS Maine; in Week 2, too many turnovers led to a 34-24 loss to Jacksonville State.
On a play-to-play basis, Liberty's offense operated just fine against Jacksonville State. It didn't operate well when faced with a possession starting in its own territory the week before.
Quarterback Ethan Vasko hasn't adjusted well to the Jamey Chadwell offensive system, turning in two underwhelming performances. Outside of a 24-yard scamper against the Gamecocks, Vasko was held to -2 rushing yards and was sacked four times.
He took a more "gunslinger" approach in that game, sometimes to his detriment when he held onto the football too long as he tried to make something happen.
After forcing three punts on Jacksonville State's first four series', Liberty's defense proceeded to allow the Gamecocks to score on five of their next six possessions after the weather delay. Perhaps that can be chalked up to getting out of a rhythm during the extended delay.
It appears to be another slow start for Chadwell & Co., marking the second year that the Flames took more than a couple of weeks to get things going.
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Missing Last Year's Explosiveness
Glance at last week's box score at Cincinnati and you might believe Bowling Green fared pretty well. But that wasn't the case.
Bowling Green won the turnover battle, Cincinnati only ran 53 plays from scrimmage, and it was still a 31-10 ballgame heading into the fourth quarter when the Falcons covered both their tracks and the point spread.
So, like with many FBS programs at the moment, we have two conflicting data points against vastly differing opponents. (BG won its opening-weekend game, 26-7, over FCS Lafayette.)
What made the Falcons fairly dangerous last year is something they severely lack through two games this year: explosiveness.
In 131 snaps this year, the Falcons have two plays longer than 30 yards and none longer than 35 yards. The pop that was previously found in players like Harold Fannin Jr. and Terion Stewart hasn't yet been seen.
Quarterback Drew Pyne isn't Connor Bazelak – he's turned in a high completion (79.2%, adjusted for drops and throwaways) but low-threatening (3.8 average depth of target!) body of work. His top two targets for the year include running back Kaderris Roberts (11) and tight end Jyrin Johnson (10).
Without the explosion in the run game — Bowling Green ranks near the bottom of the FBS in rushing explosiveness — this offense hasn't been able to gel.
Defensively, Bowling Green keeps things in front of it. But without stellar defensive backs on the roster (something it has been able to produce year after year), teams methodically push the ball down the field with little resistance, even if the explosive plays aren't there.
And therein lies Bowling Green's problem: not enough explosiveness on offense to counter a defense whose bend-don't-break strategy can be broken.
Liberty vs Bowling Green Pick, Betting Analysis
Liberty took the early movement here after opening at -5.5. The total remains unchanged through Wednesday morning.
There's a buy point for Bowling Green here, but I'm not entirely sure we get there (at least not for an extended period). +7 or better would be a buy on the Falcons, should it become available.
Liberty has a poor track record both, A) away from Lynchburg, and B) as a road favorite.
Last year, the Flames went 1-4 against the spread when favored on the road, and over the previous 10 seasons, Liberty is just 26-28 outright on the road (3-2 last season, including losses at Kennesaw State and Sam Houston State).
Even under Hugh Freeze, Liberty hasn't always been able to avoid disaster on the road, losing as a -33 favorite at ULM and -6 favorite at Syracuse in 2021.
In 2022, Liberty dropped a game at UConn as a -14 favorite.
Still, I'm not convinced Bowling Green's offense is operational at this point in the season. Pyne instills almost no confidence in me through two games.
So, this isn't an outright buy unless we see a +7 (preferably +7.5). Until we see that key number pop, I'll take Bowling Green +3.5 in the first half at home and capitalize on Liberty's slow starts out of the gate and inconsistencies of both offenses.
Pick: Bowling Green 1H +3.5
