Louisville vs Indiana Odds & Prediction: Can Hoosiers Keep It Close?

Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will be the host of this cross-conference matchup between Louisville and Indiana on Saturday.

Jeff Brohm and the Louisville Cardinals will be looking to keep their undefeated season alive after a thrilling victory against Georgia Tech in Week 1 and a dismantling of FCS Murray State a week ago.

On the other side, Indiana was able to bounce back from its opening-week loss to Ohio State by defeating in-state foe Indiana State, 41-7.

To determine who will pick up a critical non-conference win and keep their momentum going, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Louisville vs. Indiana.

Through two weeks, Louisville has impressed, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Cardinals rank ninth nationally in overall Success Rate as a result of their ability to create explosive plays.

Louisville has the highest passing down Explosiveness in the country and is 25th nationally in rushing play Explosiveness through two weeks.

These explosive plays have been critical for a Louisville team that's needed to make up for defensive inconsistencies and offensive miscues.

For example, Louisville was able to come away with a victory against Georgia Tech despite allowing the Yellow Jackets to rack up 488 yards of total offense. Georgia Tech found most of its success through the air, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt.

This passing success should come as no surprise, as Louisville’s secondary was a question mark coming into this season. The Cardinals lost three of its top four tacklers and added a significant amount of portal additions in the secondary. 

These defensive inconsistencies will be a welcomed sight for newly-cemented starting QB Tayven Jackson and an Indiana offense looking to build upon its performance in Week 2.

On the other side of the ball, Louisville has put up impressive numbers, but it hasn't been perfect on offense.

In particular, QB Jack Plummer has been a mixed bag, throwing four touchdowns to go with three interceptions. Plummer’s performance will have to be better against an Indiana secondary that's been a strength through the first two weeks. 

Overall, the Hoosiers' secondary has been great at limiting its opponent's explosive play ability, ranking seventh nationally in defensive Explosiveness.

For a Louisville offense that's benefited greatly from creating big plays, this Indiana secondary will force the Cards to limit mistakes and generate consistent offensive success in order to cover this number.

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The test for Indiana will be developing its identity on the offensive side of the ball.

Through two games, the Hoosiers rank 88th nationally in Success Rate, but were able to generate some positive numbers against FCS Indiana State. The Hoosiers posted 4.25 points per opportunity against the Sycamores by producing four Line Yards per rush. 

In addition, Indiana will look to build continuity at the QB position, as Jackson was named the starter moving forward after completing 85.7% of his pass attempts in Week 2. 

I like this opportunity for Indiana’s offense against a Louisville defense that ranks 99th nationally in rushing play Success Rate allowed. 

This ability to generate success on the ground behind an experienced offensive line will allow Jackson to settle in and create explosives in play-action against a Louisville defense that ranks 100th nationally in passing play Explosiveness allowed.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Indiana match up statistically:

Louisville Offense vs. Indiana Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	2	78
Line Yards	17	103
Pass Success	35	43
Havoc	22	27
Finishing Drives	6	41
Quality Drives	33	52

Indiana Offense vs. Louisville Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	104	99
Line Yards	46	55
Pass Success	51	6
Havoc	33	119
Finishing Drives	97	2
Quality Drives	48	21

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	16	60
PFF Coverage	75	78
Special Teams SP+	15	33
Middle 8	107	107
Seconds per Play	25.6 (48)	29.3 (101)
Rush Rate	54.6% (48)	56.4% (53)

This is a perfect situation to back an Indiana team catching points against a Louisville team that still has a ton of question marks on both sides of the ball. 

Offensively, I look for Jackson to take advantage of his new starting role against a Louisville defense that allowed Georgia Tech to establish the run and create explosive plays through the air. 

On the other side, Indiana has enough playmakers in the secondary to make this Louisville offense — that ranks outside the top 100 in Passing Down PPA and Explosiveness — one-dimensional. 

Give me the points with Indiana in this neutral-site contest, as I expect it to be competitive throughout.