LSU vs Alabama Odds, Picks, Predictions: How Our Staff is Betting Saturday’s SEC Tilt

LSU vs Alabama Odds, Picks, Predictions: How Our Staff is Betting Saturday’s SEC Tilt article feature image

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images & Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured from left: LSU Tigers defensive end Ali Gaye (11) and Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Will Anderson Jr. (31). Design by Ryan Collinsworth/Action Network.

LSU vs Alabama Odds

Saturday, Nov. 5
7 p.m. ET
LSU Odds
-110o / -110u
Alabama Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

By Thomas Schlarp

It was only three years ago that Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Clyde Edwards-Helaire rolled into Bryant-Denny Stadium and dispatched a previously unbeaten Alabama team, 46-41.

The moment was a high watermark for LSU, as that win marks the only victory the Tigers hold over the Crimson Tide in the last 11 meetings between the two SEC West foes.

Since then, much has changed in Baton Rouge, none more notable than Brian Kelly bringing his “family” to the bayou to course correct a program that was on a downward trajectory since winning the 2020 national title.

Following one of the crazier losses you will see against Florida State to open the season, the Tigers have rebounded to a 6-2 overall record, completely in control of their own destiny as it relates to winning an SEC title.

Alabama’s record (7-1) connotes business as usual under Nick Saban, but it feels anything but. The Tide have eked out victories over Texas and Texas A&M, and a normally stout defense was gashed for 567 yards and 52 points against Tennessee.

Bryce Young remains one of the favorites to receive an invitation to the Heisman ceremony, but the Alabama quarterback and Jayden Daniels of LSU aren’t that statistically far apart.

Young is averaging 291.9 yards of offense per game and has accounted for 21 touchdowns (18 pass, 3 rush), while the dual-threat Daniels averages an even 292 yards of offense and has accounted for 21 touchdowns (12 pass, 9 rush).

Both teams enter Saturday’s matchup in Tiger Stadium fresh off a bye and with top-10 billing in the first College Football Playoff poll of the season. The Tide are just 1-2 against the spread in their last three road games, but there’s no place Saban is more familiar with outside of Bryant-Denny than inside Death Valley.

Last year’s matchup stayed close, as Alabama was held to just six rushing yards in its 20-14 win. Will we see more of that in 2022 as the Tide continue to exert their dominance against LSU, or does Brian Kelly have something cooked up for his first signature win as an SEC head coach?

Our staff breaks down its favorite bets for the game below.

LSU vs Alabama Point Spread

5 Picks

Coin Flip

1 Picks
4 Picks

LSU +13.5

By Patrick Strollo

After a rocky start to the Brain Kelly era in Baton Rouge, LSU has quietly turned into a force to be reckoned with in the SEC West.

LSU is led by dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels, a transfer from Arizona State, who’s completing an impressive 69.9% of his passes this season.

Through the air, Daniels is averaging 226.5 yards per game this season and has exhibited strong decision-making, throwing just one interception on the year.

Daniels has been special on the ground too, averaging 65.5 yards per game and rushing for nine touchdowns.

In the last two weeks, the Tigers have found their stride offensively, combining for 90 points in victories over Florida and Ole Miss. Daniels has been integral in those efforts, averaging 381 yards of total offense.

The LSU receiving corps is very strong this year and has been a boon for Daniels. With one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in the nation, the Tigers have four receivers who average over 35.5 yards per game.

The Alabama pass defense enters as the 32nd-ranked unit in the nation, allowing 201.8 aerial yards per game, and has shown signs of permeability. Alabama will have to be extremely cognizant of Daniel’s ability and penchant for fleeing the pocket.

To keep the fleet-footed Daniels in check, Alabama will have to spy him for most of the game. This will create favorable downfield dynamics for the talented wide receiver pool with exploitable mismatches arising, especially as Daniels reads his progressions.

It’s going to be difficult for LSU to secure the win outright at home against an elite quarterback in Young, but 13.5 points is too much chalk for a Tigers team that’s turning a corner and hosting in one of the most difficult environments in the nation.

Staff Pick: LSU +13.5

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LSU vs Alabama Over/Under

Over 58

3 Picks

Coin Flip

2 Picks

Under 58

5 Picks

Under 58

By Patrick Strollo

While a lot of emphasis will be put on the offensive capabilities of both teams and the quarterbacks specifically, both programs come into the game featuring strong defenses.

Alabama heads to Death Valley tied for seventh nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 16.6 yards per game.

The Crimson Tide have been excellent against the run this season and are allowing just under 94 yards per game rushing to opposing teams.

The Tide’s to shut down the run will be very important given the dual-threat nature of LSU’s offensive attack. Look for Alabama to keep an extra man in the box and ratchet up the pressure on Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels.

LSU has a solid pass defense that held the 18th-ranked Ole Miss offense (37.4 PPG) to just 20 points last week. Against the venerable Tennessee pass offense, LSU held Hendon Hooker to what would be considered a low 239 yards and two passing touchdowns.

Where LSU has struggled this season has been defending the run. The Tigers rank in the middle of the pack (66th) against the run, allowing 142.0 yards per game on the ground.

They’re going to be challenged by an Alabama running back corps that’s averaging over 5.8 yards per carry.

LSU will do its best to open up the run game, namely Daniels using his speed opportunistically out of the pocket, whereas Alabama will come out of the gates with a heavy ground-and-pound attack.

Stylistically, both game plans lean toward a heavy under bias due to heavy time deletion on running plays.

Take the under in Death Valley, as both defenses will be forced to contain the run.

Staff Pick: Under 58

Alabama 1H -7

By Action Analytics

We’re going back to that 2018-19 well that is the Alabama first-half spread. Why?

Because this Crimson Tide team is going to roll over the LSU Tigers, who have somehow found themselves ranked inside the top 10. Our own power rankings have them tied for 16th, with Alabama ranked third.

LSU has struggled to create chaos for opposing offenses all year, with a very middle-of-the-road Defensive Havoc ranking of 78th. This plays right into Bryce Young’s hands, as he may be the best quarterback in the country when it comes to being patient and allowing his receivers to break open when he has time in the pocket.

When he has a clean pocket, Young is the best quarterback in the country with a PFF grade of 94.8.

I expect the Tide to come out of the gates hot coming off of a bye week, with their first drive ending in a touchdown from a script that’s been two weeks in the making.

That alone makes me comfortable taking the Tide in the first half.

Pick: Alabama 1H -7

LSU 1Q Under 4.5

By Patrick Strollo

The LSU Tigers have been very slow starters this season. Even though LSU is the 28th-ranked scoring offense in the country averaging 35.1 points per game, the first quarter has been a struggle all season for the Bayou Bengals.

LSU has averaged just 3.2 points in the first quarter against FBS competition this season. If we isolate SEC competition, its average first-quarter points number falls to just 2.0.

The Tigers face an Alabama defense that’s tied for seventh in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 16.6 points per game. A simple average adds up to 4.1 points per quarter given up by the Crimson Tide.

Defense will continue to be a sticking point for Bama head coach Nick Saban after giving up 52 points to Tennessee in a losing effort just a couple of weeks ago.

Look for the Alabama defense to look for redemption in its first road game since giving up a 50-burger and losing in Knoxville.

Get in and out with a first-quarter under on the slow-starting LSU Tigers against the second-best scoring defense in the SEC.

Pick: LSU 1Q Under 4.5 (Play to 4)

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