The Memphis Tigers take on the NC State Wolfpack in the 2025 Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa on Friday, Dec. 19. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
NC State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. Memphis, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +145 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57 total points.
Here’s my Memphis vs. NC State prediction and college football picks for Friday, December 19.
Memphis vs NC State Prediction
- Memphis vs. NC State Pick: Over 56.5
My NC State vs. Memphis best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Memphis vs NC State Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Memphis vs NC State Spread: NC State -3.5, Memphis +3.5
- Memphis vs NC State Over/Under: 57 Points
- Memphis vs NC State Moneyline: Memphis +145, NC State -170
Memphis vs NC State Gasparilla Bowl Betting Preview
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview: High-Flying Offense
If you want a bowl game where both teams are ready to put up points, the Gasparilla Bowl is it.
Memphis has one of the best "over" profiles in the country, ranking top-three in early downs EPA/Play and second in EPA/Rush while gaining more than 50% of available yards.
That mix is tough for any opponent, but it’s even tougher for a defense like NC State’s.
The Wolfpack sit near the bottom in every key stat: 123rd in EPA/Pass allowed, 90th in EPA/Rush allowed, 125th in available yards allowed and 120th in third-down defense.
This isn’t just a struggling defense; it’s one that can’t get off the field.
When Memphis is moving the ball efficiently on early downs, NC State doesn’t have the numbers or the players to slow it down. Looking at the rosters, this game is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair.
Memphis lost head coach Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas, along with a few defenders, but the whole offensive core is still playing. Quarterback Brendon Lewis is in, running back Sutton Smith is in and the wide receivers are all set.
Interim coaching staffs almost always focus on the side of the ball that got them here, and for Memphis, that’s the offense.
When two assistants share offensive coordinator duties for a bowl game, history shows it rarely leads to conservative play. Instead, you usually see more tempo, creativity and big plays.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview: Defense Facing Issues
On the other side, most of NC State’s opt-outs and injuries are on defense, which is a much bigger deal than missing a few offensive players. The Wolfpack are missing several key defenders in both the front seven and the secondary.
Losing depth on offense is manageable, but losing defenders when your defense is already near the bottom in pass efficiency, available yards allowed and third-down stops is a real problem.
This is the last matchup NC State wants, considering it's facing Memphis on a fast field in perfect Florida weather.
There’s even more reason to like the over since the Wolfpack have the offense to keep up. They rank 19th in EPA/Pass and are top-30 in early-down efficiency.
Memphis’ defense, especially after losing secondary players to the transfer portal, isn’t built to stop that.
The Tigers sit outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass allowed and early-down EPA allowed, and they often let opponents face easy third downs.
With NC State missing star running back Hollywood Smothers, it's likely throw even more, which is exactly how a team wants to attack Memphis.
Memphis vs NC State Pick, Betting Analysis
Both of these teams will find a way to move the ball against an opposing defense that is either not good or facing some availability issues.
NC State will pass, and Memphis hasn’t shown all year that it can stop a solid passing offense, especially now.
The Wolfpack, meanwhile, can't stop the run or the pass, which is bad news against a Tigers offense that comes in at full strength.
Add in perfect scoring conditions in Tampa, the usual bowl-game aggression from teams with interim coaches and weak defenses, and this looks like a game where both offenses should score at will.
Pick: Over 56.5
