The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks take on the Western Michigan Broncos in Detroit, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Western Michigan is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Miami (Ohio), meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami (Ohio) vs. Western Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Prediction
- Miami (Ohio) vs. Western Michigan Pick: Under 43.5
My Western Michigan vs. Miami (Ohio) best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Odds
| Miami (Ohio) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Spread: Western Michigan -2.5, Miami (Ohio) +2.5
- Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Over/Under: 43.5 Points
- Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Moneyline: Miami (Ohio) +110, Western Michigan -130
Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan College Football Betting Preview
In typical MAC fashion, the conference championship matchup came down to the final week with Western Michigan wrapping up the outright regular-season title with a victory over Eastern Michigan, and Miami (Ohio) winning a three-way tiebreaker for second place following its win over Ball State.
The RedHawks are becoming a fixture at Ford Field, making their third consecutive appearance in the MAC title game, while Western Michigan will make the trip to Detroit for the first time since 2016.
These two teams met in Oxford in the regular season, with Miami (Ohio) rallying in the fourth quarter with 17 unanswered points to pull out a 26-17 victory after trailing, 16-9, with just over 10 minutes left in regulation.
Quarterback Dequan Finn had a very productive day at the office, but he has since surprisingly left the program to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Head coach Chuck Martin originally turned to backup Henry Hesson, who had a miserable outing against Toledo, finishing 11-of-38 for 147 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions.
As a result, Martin decided to roll the dice with freshman Thomas Gotkowski over the final two must-win games.
That decision paid off with Gostkowski leading the RedHawks to a pair of decisive victories over Buffalo and Ball State, while throwing for four touchdowns and no interceptions.
So, who are these teams? Let's take a closer look before diving into why I like the under.
You can almost think of the Western Michigan offense as the MAC's service academy. Offensive coordinator Walt Bell has completely changed the offense this season to one of the most run-heavy units in college football.
The offensive line isn't great, and the passing attack — which ranks outside the top 100 in EPA and Success Rate — is extremely limited outside of some occasional splash plays to Tailique Williams.
The Broncos are going to relentlessly pound the rock with running back Jalen Buckley (with some Devin Miles mixed in) and frequently utilize the legs of quarterback Broc Lowry, who actually led the team in both rush attempts and yards during the regular season. Western Michigan ranked in the top 10 in quarterback-designed run usage.
It's not an explosive ground game, but it can be very efficient (and very effective in short-yardage situations) in keeping the chains moving on long, methodical drives.
That type of offense works very well in conjunction with a dominant defense that features an extremely stout linebacker corps.
The pass defense is especially dominant in large part due to a front that can wreak Havoc in opposing backfields (third in Sack EPA). The leader of that charge is defensive end Nadame Tucker, who has a whopping 51 pressures on the season.
Teams can run a bit on Western Michigan but really struggle in obvious passing downs.
Miami (Ohio) actually profiles pretty similarly to Western Michigan.
The RedHawks sport an outstanding defense that can generate elite pressure (top-10 in Sack EPA and Pressure Rate), thanks in large part to defensive end Adam Trick, who actually has more pressures (63) than Tucker on the season.
A pair of fifth-year senior safeties in Eli Blakey and Silas Walters patrol the back end and really help limit anything explosive through the air or on the ground — a trademark of the Miami defense under Martin.
The linebacker room also cleans everything up on the second level since you can push the Miami front around some (13th percentile in Line Yards) — although it's worth monitoring the status of stud linebacker Corban Hondru, who had 12 tackles and a sack in the first meeting.
He's listed as questionable after missing the final two games of the regular season due to an injury that I don't believe was too serious, but it's difficult to find updated info on that front in the MAC.
On the other side of the ball, the RedHawks offense operates at a very slow pace and ultimately wants to lean on its offensive line, which has plus size but also some clear deficiencies outside of stud right tackle Drew Terrill.
Left tackle Eric Smith really struggles in pass protection, which could spell trouble against Tucker. There have been plenty of moving parts behind that offensive line throughout the season.
The RedHawks are now also onto their second starting running back (Jordan Brunson, who has been pretty good) following a season-ending injury to Kenny Tracy. Again, they're also on their third starting quarterback in the aforementioned Gotkowski.
While Miami does want to lean on its ground game, it will take plenty of deep shots, as evidenced by Gotkowski's astronomical 15.4 aDOT.
The RedHawks feature a very capable wide receiver corps, led by walking explosive Kam Perry, who leads the nation in yards per catch at 24.7 ([) among all receivers with at least 25 receptions.
Cole Weaver has also come on late in the season as a nice complementary piece and seems to have a nice connection with Gotkowski.
Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
Gotkowski is the wild card in this matchup.
The Western Michigan defense is one of the best at the G5 level and will provide a much stiffer test than the stop units of the Cardinals and Bulls.
We've only seen Gotkowski attempt nine passes under pressure so far this season. Until I see more than a two-game sample size, I have to assume the third-string freshman is worse (and less elusive) than Finn and not the next Big Ben.
The running game also likely won't be as dangerous without Finn's legs.
From a side perspective, I'm pretty close to market here and admittedly just don't have enough confidence in my read of the Miami quarterback situation.
The RedHawks do have a significant special teams edge on paper, which could prove to be the difference in a likely close game.
However, I do like the under here.
In the first meeting, the total closed at 40.5 with Finn at the helm. I had under 42 in that game (which lost), but it closed closer to where I made it (40) and only barely snuck over in the final two minutes after Miami made a 51-yard field goal following a five-yard drive that came after a Western Michigan fumble.
Additionally, WMU scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first half after a 70-yard kick return that set it up at the Miami 21-yard line. Without that, the game likely goes to the half, 9-7, and stays under.
In fairness, they played that first meeting outdoors — although the conditions were fine. In general, I make a 1.5-point upward adjustment for dome games, so I end up around 41 here with the freshman quarterback for Miami.
I don't envision many explosive plays, and Martin usually plays these games very conservatively with field position always on his mind.
In a matchup of two borderline top-50 national defenses facing off against slow-moving offenses rated outside the top 100, this should be a race to 20, in my opinion.
I'm expecting a decent amount of sacks on passing downs to kill drives, so we just need to avoid too many explosive passing plays or key turnovers that lead to short fields.
Notable Nugget: Since 2005, MAC Championship unders have gone 13-7 by an average of about six points per game. Each of the past six have stayed under.
Pick: Under 43.5 or Better
Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan Betting Trends
