The Michigan Wolverines take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Chicago, Illinois. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 41 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Northwestern prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Michigan vs Northwestern Prediction
- Michigan vs. Northwestern Pick: Michigan -12.5 or better
My Northwestern vs. Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan vs Northwestern Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 41 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 41 -110o / -110u | +375 |
- Michigan vs Northwestern point spread: Michigan -11.5 (-115), Northwestern +11.5 (-105)
- Michigan vs Northwestern over/under: 41 (-110o / -110u)
- Michigan vs Northwestern moneyline: Michigan -500, Northwestern +375
Michigan vs Northwestern Preview
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Navigating Injuries and Inconsistency
Nobody is talking about Michigan this season, but the Wolverines are quietly 7-2 and ranked 18th.
All they need to do is take care of business, and they will be in the Big 10 Championship game and the College Football Playoff.
Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is continuing to settle into this offense, and while he has been inconsistent, the immense talent has been on display. He has seven touchdown passes on the season and has added four more on the ground.
Michigan has kept the handcuffs on Underwood a bit. However, he has made five big-time throws over the last five games, compared to just one in the first four. The Wolverines still are not dialing up many designed runs for Underwood.
They might need to use Underwood’s legs more with star running back Justice Haynes out with an injury. Jordan Marshall has shone as the featured back, rushing for 185 yards and three touchdowns last week against Purdue. Top receiver Donaven McCulley left last week’s game with an injury but should be good to go on Saturday.
On defense, linebackers Jimmy Rolder, Cole Sullivan, and Jaishawn Barham are all dealing with injuries, as is safety Rod Moore. All are questionable for Saturday.
Michigan needs to be at full strength, as the defense is not as dominant as it has been in recent years. The Wolverines rank just 48th nationally in Success Rate allowed. The run defense has remained very good and remains one of the best in the Big 10, but the pass defense has been an issue.
The Wolverines rank 10th in the Big 10 in passing yards allowed per game and have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete over 66% of their passes. Only two teams in the conference have allowed a higher completion percentage.
Derrick Moore has been a menace off the edge and leads the Big 10 in sacks, but when the pass does get off in time, they are allowing too many completions.
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Wildcats Seek Strong Finish at Wrigley
Northwestern seems to always alternate between winning and losing seasons, and in the third year under David Braun, the Wolverines have already eclipsed last season’s win total at 5-4.
They are 4-1 at home this season, having lost only to Oregon.
The Wildcats have dropped their last two road games, at Nebraska and USC, and return to Chicago, where they will play their final two home games at Wrigley Field.
Quarterback Preston Stone transferred to Northwestern from SMU and got off to a brutal start. He threw six interceptions in the first three games but has settled down a bit with just three picks over the past six contests. He also has eight touchdowns over that stretch, with a majority going to his favorite target, Griffin Wilde. He has been a one-man show for this passing game, with Wilde having 43 catches on the year, compared to just 19 for the next closest player.
With running back Cam Porter lost for the season, Caleb Komolafe has taken over as the lead back, averaging 80.7 yards per game with eight touchdowns on the year. Backups Joseph Himon and Dashun Reeder have both been effective as well, but both missed last week with injuries and are questionable.
Northwestern’s defense has struggled on a down-to-down basis, ranking just 81st nationally in Success Rate allowed. They have allowed teams to move the ball on them, but have really clamped down when the opponent gets into scoring range. The Wildcats rank 18th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Wildcats' passing defense has been strong, but the rush defense has not. Northwestern ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate allowed and has allowed eight rushing scores across the past four games.
Linebacker Mac Uihlein has been the do-it-all man for this defense. He ranks second on the Wildcats with 70 tackles and leads the team with six tackles for loss and also with four interceptions.
Michigan vs Northwestern Pick, Betting Analysis
This is just a very bad matchup for Northwestern.
Let’s start with what the Wildcats do very well.
On offense, they want to run the ball and slow the game down. Northwestern ranks fifth in the Big 10 in rushing yards and has a very talented running back room.
The problem is that the Wildcats have already lost their starting running back for the year. Komolafe has done an excellent job stepping up as the main back, but his running mates, Himon and Reeder, both missed last week’s game and are questionable for this one.
Even if all three play, they are facing an elite Michigan run defense that is second in the Big 10, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. Only one opponent has managed over 140 rushing yards against this defense.
I expect Northwestern to struggle running the ball against this defense, forcing Stone to throw more.
Michigan, however, should be able to run the ball here. The Northwestern defense has been solid against the pass this season, but this is not exactly an opponent that wants to air it out.
Even without Haynes, the Wolverines are just going to pound the rock with Jordan Marshall. In the two games without Haynes this season, Marshall has 318 yards and four touchdowns. Michigan wants to run the ball, and Northwestern ranks outside the top 100 nationally at defending the run.
The Wildcats rank 127th in PFF’s Tackling Grade. That is a massive problem against Michigan.
Finally, the situation favors Michigan. The Wolverines are coming off a bye week, which should be a big advantage with a true freshman quarterback, while Northwestern is coming off back-to-back road games and just played across the country in Los Angeles.
Northwestern is 4-1 at home this year, but those wins are against an FCS school, a Sun Belt team, UCLA, and Purdue.
While this technically counts as a home game, it will be played in Wrigley Field, and let’s be honest, there will be a lot more Michigan fans in attendance than Northwestern fans. I am not even sure I would use any home-field advantage for the Wildcats here.
Our Action Network Power Ratings make Michigan -12.5 on a neutral field, and that is what I would play this to.
Pick: Michigan -12.5 or Better
