The Missouri Tigers take on the Auburn Tigers in Auburn, AL. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Missouri is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 43.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri vs. Auburn prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.
Missouri vs Auburn Prediction
Missouri vs. Auburn Pick: Auburn ML +105
My Auburn vs. Missouri best bet is on Auburn moneyline. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri vs Auburn Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
- Missouri vs Auburn Spread: Missouri -1.5
- Missouri vs Auburn Total Points: 43.5
- Missouri vs Auburn ML: Missouri -120, Auburn +100
Missouri vs Auburn Preview
Missouri Betting Preview
Up until the Alabama game, this Missouri Tigers team had reaped the benefits of a soft, home-only schedule.
While the Tigers didn't look helpless against the Tide like last year, the quarterback position all of a sudden became a bit of a question mark.
Beau Pribula’s PFF offensive grade ranks inside the top 25 nationally, but that’s heavily propped up by his first two outings — games against Central Arkansas and Kansas in which he posted grades of 91.8 and 87.8 with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Since then, he’s been average at best. Over the last four weeks, his completion percentage has fallen to under 65%, and his PFF passing grade has dropped below 60 in two of those games, including a 51.1 mark against Alabama.
Against power-conference defenses, he’s thrown just five touchdowns to five interceptions and has averaged under 7.0 yards per attempt.
Missouri’s overall efficiency metrics are solid — eighth in offensive success rate and ninth in finishing drives — but it's been far less effective against elite defensive fronts.
That’s a bad start against an Auburn defense that thrives on disruption.
Auburn Betting Preview
Auburn’s defense has quietly been one of the more reliable units in the SEC. The Tigers rank 17th nationally in defensive success rate, 29th in defensive hard stops and top-20 in third-down defense.
They create pressure without sacrificing coverage, sitting 53rd in havoc — which is not elite, but steady enough to force mistakes from quarterbacks who rely on rhythm.
The real advantage for Auburn is how well it defends the middle of the field and limits chunk plays.
Missouri ranks outside the top 75 in explosive play rate, and with Pribula’s recent struggles under pressure — he’s been sacked 15 times and pressured on 24% of dropbacks — Auburn’s front should have opportunities to get home.
Defensively, Auburn’s efficiency inside the 20 is also a difference-maker. It's 29th in red-zone defense, and that plays directly into Missouri’s biggest offensive dip in recent weeks.
Against Alabama and South Carolina, the Tigers scored on just 4-of-8 red-zone trips, a glaring regression from their early-season pace.
Missouri vs Auburn Pick, Betting Analysis
There’s a quiet confidence around Auburn this week, and for good reason. While the Tigers’ 3-3 record doesn’t jump off the page, this matchup lines up well for them.
They’re playing at home, their defense has been sharp in key situations and Missouri’s offensive production — particularly from Pribula — looks a lot shakier once you dig beneath the surface.
Missouri has the better record, the higher ranking and the bigger name at quarterback, but the gap between these teams is much thinner than it looks on paper.
Auburn’s defense has been more consistent, its red-zone efficiency gives it a real edge and Missouri’s offense looks less and less explosive the further it gets from September.
This sets up as a classic “market overreaction” spot: Missouri’s early-season numbers inflate perception, while Auburn’s competitiveness in losses — especially against Georgia and Ole Miss — keeps being overlooked.
If Pribula’s early-season form doesn’t return, Missouri will be forced into long drives against one of the SEC’s stingier defenses, which isn't a winning formula on the road.
Auburn has every ingredient for a mild upset: a disruptive defense, home-field energy and a Missouri offense regressing toward the mean.
Pick: Auburn ML +105
