The Montana Grizzlies take on the Sacramento State Hornets in Sacramento, CA, on Friday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Montana is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. Sacramento State, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +255 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62.5 points.
Here’s my Montana vs. Sacramento State prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 24.
Montana vs. Sacramento State Prediction
- Montana vs. Sacramento State Pick: Under 62.5
My Montana vs. Sacramento State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Montana vs. Sacramento State Odds
| Montana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -113 | 62.5 -113o / -113u | -350 |
| Sacramento State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -113 | 62.5 -113o / -113u | +255 |
- Montana vs. Sacramento State Spread: Montana -9.5, Sacramento State +9.5
- Montana vs. Sacramento State Over/Under: 62.5 Points
- Montana vs. Sacramento State Moneyline: Montana -350, Sacramento State +255
Montana vs. Sacramento State College Football Betting Preview
Montana Grizzlies Betting Preview: Griz Putting On a Show
The Griz come into this one rolling after a 43-21 dispatching of Sacred Heart last weekend. The win was impressive considering the rare nonconference spot in the middle of Big Sky play, which doesn’t occur frequently at the FCS level.
Montana has shown versatility as a team, winning games in a variety of ways, but it's been fun to watch this offensive unit operate.
The offense is averaging 490 yards per game, led by quarterback Keali'i Ah Yat, who has been in firm control of this offense all season.
The sophomore signal-caller has thrown for 2,042 yards and 14 touchdowns while completing 69% of his passes, and last week may have been his finest performance of the season.
The ground game has been solid behind running back Eli Gillman. Still, this offensive line is going to have its work cut out for it against this Sac State defensive front.
The Montana defense has performed well enough this season, but it's far from elite. The Griz rank in the middle of the Big Sky in tackling grades and possess a below-average pass rush.
For the season, Montana is allowing opponents 389 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. The play of Montana’s defensive line and how well it contains the run game will be a huge indicator of how this showdown will play out.
Sacramento State Hornets Betting Preview: Williams Leads the Way
Sacramento State made quite a buzz this offseason in hiring Brennan Marion away from UNLV and implementing the “Go-Go” offense. After two sluggish performances to start the season, this offense has taken flight.
Everything changed after a midseason quarterback switch, as highly-touted Jaden Rashada was benched in favor of Cardell Williams.
Williams has immediately improved the Hornets' passing attack while contributing in the run game, a critical element of this offensive scheme.
Defensively, the Hornets have put up some impressive performances and have also had some shockingly bad outings.
This defense frustrated South Dakota State early in the season and held its own against an FBS opponent. It has also been shredded in recent weeks by Cal Poly and Northern Colorado.
Montana vs Sacramento State Pick, Betting Analysis
While both of these two are accustomed to higher-scoring games, both Montana and Sac State have feasted on some of the worst defenses in the Big Sky.
This game is too important for either team not to be completely dialed in defensively, and I would play the under.
Sacramento State wants to run the football, and it does so 67% of the time.
The Hornets have several capable running backs, including Rodney Hammond Jr. and Damian Henderson II, who have combined for over 1,000 yards and nine rushing scores. Williams has also chipped in on the ground from the quarterback position.
The passing game has improved, but it's still not overly proficient. In fact, the Hornets have passed for only 177 yards total in their last two games.
Montana has been beaten on the ground defensively this year, allowing 149 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.
I'd expect Sac State to rely almost entirely on the ground game, and while it should move the ball efficiently, I wouldn't expect explosive chunk runs from the Hornets.
Montana has also had success moving the ball on the ground with Gillman's 776 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns.
Ah Yat has been very efficient throwing the football, but I expect this Sac State defensive front to cause problems in the pocket and make the Griz signal-caller uncomfortable.
For how well Montana has played this season, the offensive line has allowed a ton of Havoc while surrendering 37 tackles for loss, 15 sacks and an additional 25 QB pressures that resulted in scrambles or throw-aways.
The Sac State defensive line boasts the third-best pass-rushing grade in the Big Sky Conference, per PFF, and the Hornets have bagged 25 sacks this season on opposing quarterbacks.
They're aided by the top secondary in the conference, which has defended the pass well for most of the season.
Montana has played the other top coverage unit in the conference in Cal Poly. In that game, Montana ran the ball 65% of the time and found itself in a defensive battle, as its offense didn't deliver quick, explosive plays through the air as it had in previous games. I expect a similar experience here.
This is going to be an incredible battle on Friday night — one worth staying up for.
We should see excellent football from both teams, and this game will go a long way toward determining their playoff fates. Strap in for a fun Friday night FCS battle, and take the under.
Pick: Under 62.5 or Better
